Commentary:EKOS Research: Green Machine

Has anyone seen or heard from the Green Party in months? It appears the less we hear and see of them the higher support they find according to Ekos Research. The Green Juggernaut continues to plow through their opposition! The "others" are holding steady with nearly four percent!

"Quebec voters are crying out for a green option capable to truly promote their environmental interests at the House of Commons, and I believe Jacques Rivard is the right person to represent the Green Party of Canada in Quebec." November 24, 2009

Rivard said he quickly realized the Green Party was well-intentioned but didn't have the resources necessary to develop the party in Quebec

Ekos is having an interesting excercise in defending how they uniquely find support levels for the Green Party in double digits. Ekos Research Poll for June 2-10, 2010 is here.

Ekos has been polling support for the Green Party above ten per cent since June 2009.

Ekos has also included another category called "other" since February 2010.

Ekos: Our survey also finds that 14.5% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Highlights Ekos Research:

• BC: Liberals 19.1% remain in 4th place just 1.1% behind the Green Party at 20.2%. (M.O.E is 6.8)
• Vancouver: Democrats big spike at expense of all (HST fallout?)
• AB: The Green Party is 3.9% ahead of the NDP (M.O.E. 7.9)
• QC: Battle for 2nd place Liberals are 1.7% ahead of Conservatives (M.O.E is 4.9)
• Battle of Sexes: Conservatives lead both
• Age: Every group including the Justin Bieber subset shows a Conservative advantage!
• Education: University or Higher has returned to Lib with a 5.1% gap (M.O.E 4.1)
• Toronto: Liberals have suddenly opened a 16.6% gap vs 0.6% gap previous Ekos Poll here.

Anyone curious how you keep support for the Liberals above 25%, do you boost Metropolitan numbers?

In Ontario Ekos previous poll finds the Liberal had a 4.0 point lead with MOE of 4.2, this week 0.2 increase with MOE 3.9. How does Ekos classify this significant swing of 0.2% in Ontario?

 "a small but very important lead."

The field dates for this survey are June 9 – June 15, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 2,013 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,725 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

June 10 2010 vs June 17, 2010 Ekos Metropolitan Snapshots:

The field dates for this survey are June 2 – June 8, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 1,789 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,541 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Campaigns matter and the actions of the opposition to avoid a test of parliamentary supremacy that might trigger an election is evidence of the trouble with left of centre parties. The budget has passed with the pattern of 30 Liberal MPs missing in action. The opposition was well unwilling to oppose the Bill making Pardons more difficult. The opposition is not interested in going to the voters for fear of punishment.

Will the Green Party of Canada be able to negotiate their participation in the debates after failing to win a single seat in 2008?

GOTV: Nik Nanos Deconstructing Connect The Dots

Source Nanos Research

The NDP, CPC are getting their base out in elections. The dots, brackets show spikes in traditional support when it matters.

Straight lines from 2002 to March 9 2010 

Brackets capture actual weeks of campaigns

Dots reflect above of below their trend line

Connect the Dots: The Election Results explain why campaigns matter

"Get out the vote" (or "getting out the vote"; GOTV) are terms used to describe two categories of political activity, both aimed at increasing the number of votes cast in one or more elections.

Negative campaigning and voter suppression

The terminology reflects a distinction of GOTV from the complementary strategy of suppressing turnout among likely opposition voters. Political consultants are reputed to privately advise some candidates to "go negative" (attack an opponent), without any intent to sway voters toward them: this plan is to instead increase the number of eligible voters who fail to vote, because their tendency to believe "politics is inherently corrupt" has so recently been reinforced. Such turnout suppression can be advantageous where any combination of three conditions apply:

1. The negative campaigning is targeted (by direct mail, telephone "push polls," or the like) on likely opposing voters, reducing the collateral damage to supporters morale.
2. The side going negative has an advantage in its supporters being steadier voters than those of its opponent.
3. The side going negative has an advantage in doing effective GOTV, so that its campaign workers can get a GOTV "antidote" to more supporters "poisoned" by the negative campaign, than the opposing campaign can of their own supporters. Wikipedia

An organization to be successful must be able to deliver results at the ballot box. Since 2000 the Liberal Party has been unable to beat their political opponents in strategies to GOTV during the campaigns. The other parties have benefitted with seats in Parliament as a result of having their campaigns successfully hold, increase, lose the least numbers of voters.

Source Pundits' Guide

I have included a screen capture from Pundits Guide, the best Canadian non partisan Political site for drilling down data. The picture details forty-two seats that were close contests in October 14, 2008 General Election. If you like to look and examine details and what to expect in the next campaign this site is highly recommended.