Nanos Poll: Conservative Lead Doubles in Ontario: 12%

Is the "W" for Ignatieff winning?

It is funny reading how a few media pundits provide spin about the drop in the leadership numbers of our PM  from last month. A drop would be significant if the gap was close, it's not. The gap is 43 points between our PM and Ignatieff. Ignatieff's score is only 39. Jack Layton has been in second place since Sept 2009 and has improved his LSI in comparison to Ignatieff. Dion also fared better in the two years he led the party.

Canadians believe political honesty should trump economic recovery as the main issue in the next election but — in a major blow to the Liberals — voters rank the Tories as the best party to deliver a government they can trust. -National Post

Nik Nanos Poll here

If Ontario is the key battleground for a Conservative breakthrough into majority territory why are the pundits they failing to report a double digit increase in Ontario from last month? The Conservative party of Canada has an eleven point lead against the Liberals nationally.

In the general elections results in October 2008 the Conservatives were able to secure a five point lead  in Ontario for the first time.

Which Liberal leader will be out of a job first?

The Liberals were behind 6.2% in the poll last month. The latest Nanos poll has the Liberals 12.3% behind the Conservatives in Ontario. Did any pundits talk about the drop for Ignatieff in Ontario or the doubling by the Conservatives? Michael Ignatieff, truly, is the George Costanza of Canadian Politics (keyboard beverage warning a funny photo-shop image of Iggy)

The news is just as bad for the provincial Liberals that are expected to lose in the fall. In another blow to the McGuinty regime, the pair were in a statistical dead heat when respondents were asked who they trusted most to manage the health-care and education files, traditionally safe Liberal ground. The Progressive Conservatives have a nine point lead.

The voters in Ontario are returning back to the Tory roots and the Liberals are going to be in a shock when the ballots are counted. The Federal Liberals were able to win one hundred seats in Ontario in 2000. They have been bleeding seats in every election to the Conservatives and NDP. They will be lucky if they can hold onto 30 seats in my opinion. I predict they will lose in the double digits in Ontario.

Conservative Mass Media Buy Working

Nik Nanos has an confirmed with another snapshot that is in line with other pollsters. The opposition parties are failing miserably to counter the message being provided by the Conservatives. Conservatives are in a double digit lead compliments of a media buy that has resonated with the public. 

The wake of the Conservative attack ads has resulted in a 13 point national advantage for the Tories over the Grits. Of note, Conservative support significantly increased in the Prairies (AB, SK, MB) which suggests that the ads served to ramp up Conservative support in areas where the Tories were already strong.-Nik Nanos

MSM and opposition mob avoiding facts for a good old witch hunt again

The MSM has decided to run with another navel gazing campaign by attacking another female Conservative minister for not having NOT provided satisfactory answers for the opposition MPs who have doubled down on another witch hunt.

The internal memo between CIDA and Bev Oda could have been handled better. as noted by a Liberal  insider. The communication of defunding Kairos could have been more smoother with a public campaign against the entitlement culture of funds for advocacy NGO's. The opposition will complain about the loss of funding for their friends, taxpayers won't care. If you turn on your television the people in Madison have had enough with special interests getting a free ride. The taxpayer gravy train is OVER.

Lollipop Guild: Public Unions, Advocacy Groups Entitlements

Public Unions, Advocacy groups will resist an end to perpetual entitlements and new reality to share some of the pain as a result of the global meltdown and re-balancing of the government balance sheets. The decade of low interest and easy money is coming to a close. It is time to pay the note and demand results for the investments and expenditures. It is only natural for those parties that have been at the trough for decades to not want to give them up.

First 2 months and Liberals can't hit 30%. February lift Conservatives media buy election threats?

Improving communication strategies bypassing the MSM and opposition MPs in the cheap seats that are avoiding the big issues for inside the beltway posturing. The Conservatives need to continue to reach out to the alternative media and hit the hustings in winnable ridings.

I suspect if the Government continues to communicate with many more Canadians their shift in direction to support direct aid in providing safe drinking water, vitamins, medicine vs Global alarmists advocacy : it will only boost their support level at home and abroad. Canadians want to see results of their spending in treasure blood on foreign soil.

I am proud of the maternal health initiative by this Federal government and the achievement to avoid the mistakes of the previous Liberal administration.

Liberals in the Lollipop guild?

Media Outlets: Election speculation

Some in the news media have begun to ramp up the speculation of a general election and cabinet shuffle again. Every Fall for the last few years the Conservatives have pulled away from the Liberals. This pattern has also repeated itself during the last two campaigns when support for the Liberals is most important. The Liberal base has been shrinking from 2000 when they captured over one hundred seats in Ontario to give them their last majority.  It appears the remaining Liberals are stuck in those glory years of a divided right and weak left. That was a generation ago. Russel Crowe won best actor in Gladiator. U2 won record of the year Beautiful Day. The political elite  in Canada and the United States may not like the change, but it's coming.

NDP problems help Ignatieff?

Just yesterday Ignatieff in a scrum suggested the resignation of NDP Carole James would help his party and reinforce the two man race. Is Ignatieff aware of the problems of the Liberal brand in BC, Ontario and Quebec?

Liberals tried to paint Vaughan Red: It failed

Ontario voters have had seven years of provincial Liberal government and most polls point to a change, an election is expected in October 2010. In British Columbia and Quebec both Liberal premiers are very unpopular. In NB the Liberal experiment was terminated with a large swing for Conservatives. This never happened before as voters appear to running out of patience for the Liberal brand of wealth redistribution.  The Liberal brand is not sexy. Liberalism is being dumped globally as a credible solution for government.

Is it time to pull the plug on the opposition and  give Ignatieff a dose of reality? Will the voters punish the opposition MPs effectively by giving the Conservatives a majority?

Although the Conservatives in the past have used various strategies to get to a majority, most recently the narrow casting of issues suggests a new majority riding cluster strategy has emerged. In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrow cast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition. With a sweeping pan-Canadian mandate more difficult to attain, it would seem that the Conservatives are more focused on clusters of ridings and issues which divide the opposition to allow the Conservatives to divide the non-Harper universe.-Nik Nanos 

It is no coincidence the last few months the shift to law and order agenda have been front and centre for the Conservative led government. They feel they can make inroads into the suburbs in BC, Ontario where gang violence is a problem and the Liberal solutions have failed.

If you read anything else today: Please read this blog post. It sums up the problem facing the old political parties.

My Rebuttal to a Progressive who Admonished Me to Play Nice ....

We have had enough.

Related articles

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• Tories edge back ahead of combined Liberal-NDP forces in seat projection (theglobeandmail.com)
• Absentee Liberals: Globe & Mail Blames Conservatives (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Warren: your guy is toast: Wait for it (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Shellacking on Hold: 42% vote for CPC (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Conservative Majority: End of Liberals? (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Police chief's victory could lead to cabinet shuffle (ctv.ca)
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Suvivor: Liberal Party Edition

Survivor was developed in 1992, it as a reality based television show that has been produced in many countries with contestants playing games to outwit, outplay and outlast each other to secure the prize of one million.

Canadian politics has taken a turn for worse lately with the official opposition refusing to provide a responsible alternative in parliament to the policies of the Conservative led government since losing power in 2006.

Media Liberals spent four weeks on a $ 57,000 reflective water effect

We have been bombarded by political games on the front pages for years that provides very little relief for the Liberal Party of Canada.

On the most recent trip trying to connect and re brand the party Michael Ignatieff remains highly critical of the government without offering ANY alternatives inside parliament that might trigger an election.

Dion - Ignatieff Best PM Nanos Research

Every pollster has captured the decline in support for the leader of the Liberal Party. This decline was quicker than Dion's and an election campaign totaling six weeks may deliver another historical low as a result. No platform, no policy, relentless smears, personal attacks, pitting Canadians against each other. - Nik Nanos Leadership: PM Harper leads with 34 point gap.

It's the economy stupid. Everything pales in comparison to what matters to Canadians.

BRIC Countries

The Canadian dollar was trading at 98.53 cents U.S., up 26 basis points. ...the value of building permits in Canada jumped a more-than-expected 6.5 per cent to $6.6 billion in June, Statistics Canada said Thursday. Most economists had expected a gain of 1.8 per cent. -Markets Down on U.S. Jobs Numbers

Double Dip Fears

We are reliant on a recovering Global economy. The Federal Government is moving forward on bringing more Free Trade deals with Europe and Bric countries. More experts are talking about the slow down in the United States economy and the possibility of a double dip. As the majority of our trade is North and South it will slow our recovery and may drag us back into a recession.

Leaders of the BRIC Countries

The BRIC are both the fastest growing and largest emerging markets economies. They account for almost three billion people, or just under half of the total population of the world. In recent times, the BRIC have also contributed to the majority of world GDP growth. According to various economists projections, it is only a matter of time before China becomes the biggest economy in the world - sometime between 2030 and 2050 seems the consensus. In fact, Goldman Sachs believe that by 2050 these will be the most important economies, relegating the US to fifth place. - Economy Watch

National Media Fails To Report Canadian Success

Is the mainstream media in Canada reporting the success of our bilateral trade or are they pointing out the negative and downplaying the growth in the relationship in the ASIAN outreach to India and China? -Foreign Press Does A  Fairer Job In Covering The Great Success Story in Canada

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Nik Nanos Leadership: PM Harper leads with 34 point gap.

Good news for Liberals, Ignatieff may have hit rock bottom at 11% for trustworthiness. Ignatieff has managed to hold on with a two point lead against Gilles Duceppe. The problem for the Liberals,  PM Stephen Harper has a significant lead on every category. Every pollster has captured the decline in support for the leader of the Liberal Party. This decline was quicker than Dion's and an election campaign totaling six weeks may deliver another historical low as a result. No platform, no policy, relentless smears, personal attacks, pitting Canadians against each other. Polls favour government cut waste and their own budgets vs tax increases. The Liberals are rallying behind every cut as a permanent entitlement to the federal tax trough. They have invoked a war of culture and character assassination behind parliamentary privilege. It is NOT working. Voters show up to mark a ballot, it is a confirmation they believe in your policies and platform. The Liberals have successfully demonstrated they have no interest in providing an alternative or debating those inside Parliament with an adult conversation. Some MP's in the back benches should denounce this strategy and risk running as an independent. Having your own voice, ideas worked for Andre Arthur, Bill Casey, John Nunziata to respect the interest of the local constituents.

The constant mudslinging by the opposition appears to be sticking to the NDP as Layton's leadership numbers have begun a downward slide. Will  the NDP continue to follow the strategy of voter suppression, cultural war in an attempt to save the furniture by the Liberals?

Will they join the Bloc and Liberals pitting region and against region?

Months ago, some of us noted the NDP did not join the Liberals in calling an unnecessary or unwanted election. We hoped they would find a third way to replace the Liberals as the official opposition by finding some common ground on the larger issues and supporting restraints of government to address fiscal reality.

Instead of adopting a mainstream fiscal platform supported by the majority of Canadians, the NDP will hold on to their ideological position of the Robin Hood fairy tales and wealth redistribution. The lesson of socialism in Eastern Europe 1945-1990's have been ignored. The NDP refusal to understand the effect of these socialist policies in Greece, Portugal, Spain, California. The steady increase of taxes, fees being levied by cities, provinces and federal governments and the lack of capacity for the middle class to absorb another tax increase. The increase of our standard of living as a direct result of Canada's growing expansion into Global trade. They wanted to fight the American rise of protectionism by adding more protectionism in Canada. The NDP have taken the mantle of special interests again in blocking every free trade deal being negotiated by Canada. This is not the responsible third way, Canada has a relatively small population of 34 million, we are export nation that is highly dependent in accessing more markets for our products and services to maintain our standard of living. Erecting barriers, relying on internal trade won't work.


The most trustworthy leader
Stephen Harper: 23.9% (-1.1)
Jack Layton: 16.8% (-4.0)
Michael Ignatieff: 11.0% (+0.6)
Elizabeth May: 6.8% (-3.0)
Gilles Duceppe: 9.0% (+1.2)
None of them/Undecided: 32.6% (+6.4)

The most competent leader
Stephen Harper: 30.2% (-3.4)
Jack Layton: 11.7% (-2.5)
Michael Ignatieff: 15.1% (+1.2)
Elizabeth May: 2.2% (-1.2)
Gilles Duceppe: 8.2% (+1.7)
None of them/Undecided: 32.6% (+4.2%)

The leader with the best vision for Canada’s future
Stephen Harper: 25.1% (-1.7)
Jack Layton: 16.3% (-0.9)
Michael Ignatieff: 14.7% (-1.3)
Elizabeth May: 5.2% (-1.2)
Gilles Duceppe: 3.9% (+1.0)
None of them/Undecided: 34.6% (+3.9)


Leadership Index Score
Stephen Harper: 79.2 (-6.2)
Jack Layton: 44.8 (-7.4)
Michael Ignatieff: 40.8 (+0.5)
Elizabeth May: 14.2 (-5.4)
Gilles Duceppe: 21.1 (+3.9)

Source here

The choice is clear on priorities, the coalition should unite as a single ballot choice and give Canadians an honest option in 2010-2011. Increased free trade, more competition at home and access to a global market or a socialist nanny state that promised to punish the "rich", "grotesque profits" earned by big banks, oil companies.  Canadians are much smarter than the merry men of Robin Hood Tax Party. Mel brooks movie clip here.

As a public service an update from an important product placement opportunity here. Face-book advice for those unhappy with Harper here.

Nik Nanos Research: Conservatives lead April 30 - May 3, 2010

The latest Nanos tracking shows that the federal Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals outside of the margin of error for the research. The research suggests that a politically tumultuous April, which featured the Guergis affair, Culture War allegations and focus on Afghan detainee transparency, has not had a negative effect on Conservative support. Nanos Research here.

Of note, pockets of polarization related to ballot preference may be emerging. Through the tumultuous April, the Conservatives widened their lead over the Liberals in the Prairies, while the Bloc Quebecois picked up support in Quebec.

I have been pointing to the strategy of voter suppression of specific voting blocks in the battleground of Ontario and Quebec for several months. The culture war is a component of achieving a means to an end.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between March 6th and March 12th.

National Committed Voters Only (n=780)

Conservative 37.2% (+2.5)
Liberal 33.2% (-1.4)
NDP 16.2% (-1.6)
BQ 9.6% (+1.9)
Green 3.8% (-1.4)
Note: Undecided 22.2% (+2.6) of total voters surveyed.

 CTV Question Period

 

Election October 15 2008 Recap on CPAC



The lead took place around the thanksgiving table. The movement took place in Ontario.

On the economic front: I posted on March 15, 2008 Nik Nanos Budget Analysis Poll

Canadians did prefer that the government continue the stimulus spending. Likewise, the deficit was seen as acceptable. Prompted with a series of public policy choices to help balance the budget, freezing government wages was identified as the most popular comparative choice. The research suggests that the budget was perceived by Canadians as a “stay the course” plan for the future. With a deficit being acceptable and the appetite for the stimulus spending to continue, it’s unlikely this budget represents a political advantage or disadvantage for the federal Conservative government.-Nik Nanos

March 23, 2010  Nik Nanos Poll: Confirm Out of Touch Coalition Parties

 You can use the Search This Blog feature to examine additional "Nik Nanos" commentary.
 

The Liberals, NDP, Bloc are unable to attack directly with facts or offer a credible alternative and have chosen to use similar catch phrases, allegations behind parliamentary privilege in their strategy of voter suppression.

• culture of intimidation, deceit, a hidden agenda, racist, ideological, undemocratic, anti-women.

The dumping of Helena Guergis as a CPC candidate for Simcoe-Grey riding will add further speculation an election is imminent over the Russian roulette game of sinister redacting allegations by the opposition parties.

The opposition parties are going to have to explain why they ignored all the testimony of our military top brass, civil servants for allegations by sources linked as friendly to the Liberal Party.

Best of luck. Let's test the CPC vs the Coalition Parties narrative!

Don't forget to read DemocraticSPACE has a new projection.

Source here.

Pollsters April 2010 Round Up

Here is a summary of the Polls April 2010

• Angus Reid Public Opinion here
• Leger here.
• Ekos Research here.
• Ispos Reid here.
• Harris-Decima Research here.

Democratic Space has an interesting site that includes seat projections here.
A partisan Liberal blogger that I visit is here and include a May projection update.
Note: The best way to measure a trend is to examine each pollster on an individual basis, their design and look for potential for flaws of bias. The table I provided should NOT be used to draw any conclusions. If you examine the second line graph with Harris-Decima a trend line can be applied.
Again I don't recommend in over analyzing a Poll in a bubble. Look at the financial health of each party as it is estimated to cost nearly $ 20 million to run a national campaign, the leader is he visiting new ridings or old ridings trying to shore up or save the furniture. Campaigns matter.
 Nik Nanos here.

Harris-Decima here

MSM Tabloid Fail: Ispsos Poll It's a 10 Point lead again!

It is a only a single Poll, and it is mistake to make predictions based on a single Poll or a series of Polls in a bubble.

Many Pundits did not predict the worst showing in popular support for the Liberals in 150 years on October 14, 2008. In November 2009 the CPC managed to gain two seats including one from a long held Bloc riding of sixteen years.

DemocraticSpace is an interesting site that has some projections about the new 338 parliament. For a detail breakdown of past election anothe site for the political junkie is Pundits' Guide.

Not a leader Part II, is starting to sink in for some in media as identified by the Polls.

Impressions of Ignatieff continues to decline since he assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. Michael Ignatieff’s current overall Leadership score (39.0 points) represents another 15.8 point drop in the past quarter of leadership tracking placing him behind both Stephen Harper (94.6 points) and New Democrat leader Jack Layton (41.2 points). -Nik Nanos

In case you're having trouble deciphering what that means, here it is: Nothing has changed in the 4+ years since the Tories were elected. Smackdown of the year - Kelly McParland

Nik Nanos Poll: Confirm Out of Touch Coalition Parties

The latest national review from Nik Nanos Research from March 6 - 12, 2010. I have included a few details including an article from a Bloomberg Article and the Nik Nanos review.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has warned that a global economic recovery could falter, saying Group of 20 nations need to press ahead with stimulus measures. While recent data have shown Canada’s economy is recovering, unemployment hasn’t declined much from the highest in more than a decade and exporters are still struggling with a strong currency and weak U.S. orders. - Bloomberg

The Government has been busy talking up the good economic news, pushing back on countries who are creating barriers to global trade. The Government has been reminding Canadians of importance to continue with the stimulus spending for 2010. In 2009 the opposition attacked the government for being too slow in delivering the stimulus.

Canadian Economy

• 82% stronger or no change

Real Estate

• 85.3% increase value or stay the same

Personal Finances

• 69% better off or no change

Wedge Issues for the opposition?

Canadian Economy views, Real Estate largest investment for most Canadians , Personal Finances (Net worth)

Opposition Campaign to be finalized:

• Lower Credit Card Bank Fees.
• Bank Executive Pay.
• Taliban rights for a comfortable detention.
• Funding for 3rd World Abortion.
• State run daycare because "stay at home parents need a real job".
• Job Security Pension for Public Private Unions.
• Quebec's HST Forestry Payoff
• Carbon Tax
• Increase G.S.T.
• Flyers 10%'s only from your MP.
• Extra Funding for CBC Programming  

What exactly are the opposition going to campaign on?

GOTV: Nik Nanos Deconstructing Connect The Dots

Source Nanos Research

The NDP, CPC are getting their base out in elections. The dots, brackets show spikes in traditional support when it matters.

Straight lines from 2002 to March 9 2010 

Brackets capture actual weeks of campaigns

Dots reflect above of below their trend line

Connect the Dots: The Election Results explain why campaigns matter

"Get out the vote" (or "getting out the vote"; GOTV) are terms used to describe two categories of political activity, both aimed at increasing the number of votes cast in one or more elections.

Negative campaigning and voter suppression

The terminology reflects a distinction of GOTV from the complementary strategy of suppressing turnout among likely opposition voters. Political consultants are reputed to privately advise some candidates to "go negative" (attack an opponent), without any intent to sway voters toward them: this plan is to instead increase the number of eligible voters who fail to vote, because their tendency to believe "politics is inherently corrupt" has so recently been reinforced. Such turnout suppression can be advantageous where any combination of three conditions apply:

1. The negative campaigning is targeted (by direct mail, telephone "push polls," or the like) on likely opposing voters, reducing the collateral damage to supporters morale.
2. The side going negative has an advantage in its supporters being steadier voters than those of its opponent.
3. The side going negative has an advantage in doing effective GOTV, so that its campaign workers can get a GOTV "antidote" to more supporters "poisoned" by the negative campaign, than the opposing campaign can of their own supporters. Wikipedia

An organization to be successful must be able to deliver results at the ballot box. Since 2000 the Liberal Party has been unable to beat their political opponents in strategies to GOTV during the campaigns. The other parties have benefitted with seats in Parliament as a result of having their campaigns successfully hold, increase, lose the least numbers of voters.

Source Pundits' Guide

I have included a screen capture from Pundits Guide, the best Canadian non partisan Political site for drilling down data. The picture details forty-two seats that were close contests in October 14, 2008 General Election. If you like to look and examine details and what to expect in the next campaign this site is highly recommended.