Sunday, December 05, 2010

Warren: your guy is toast: Wait for it

Warren Kinsella dismisses all the political punditry as responsible for inducing a headache by adding  even more analysis here. Warren, you doth protest too much?

Warren feels Conservatives should be reaching for headache relief because his team led by Michael Ignatieff actually  won on November 29, 2010. (Stop laughing, it's true read the article) Michael Ignatieff has led the Liberals since December 10, 2008. Any idea why the whole record of by elections by Ignatieff led Liberals is being downplayed?

Warren when your leader is considered the butt of jokes, it's game over.

Don't take my word for it, or the "Conservative" bloggers who view the stunts from the Liberal war room as comical material equivalent to George W. Bush. Many of us Conservatives did not believe the Liberals could do much worse than Dion and we were WRONG. The backroom Liberals in Toronto are due a big thank you for  their decision in avoiding a messy "costly" leadership contest in December 2008. Dismissing the front line staff and volunteers from participating in the leadership of the Liberal Party was the prudent thing to do. The  Liberal party executive have been doing a great job in catching up to the Conservative party. (Don't ask for metrics or any proof, I am just making it up and it looks good on the screen.)
I am not sure what was more comedic gold: G.W.B's "Mission Accomplished" on ending major combat operation in Iraq in May 2003 with a large sign in the background or in Sept 2009 Michael Ignateiff declaring in Sudbury Mr. Harper your Time is Up. without permission-blessings from his MPs and being called a shameless opportunist by Donald Martin for providing no credible alternative months later.

In my opinion when your own team is mocking you, it is much worse. If G.W.B. was successful in finding, killing Osama Bin Laden, his critics would have complained it took too long, cost too much money and it made matters only worse.

Your Ignatieff led Liberal team went zero for four in those by elections in November 2009. The NDP decided to not join  the Liberal non-confidence vote against the Government and cited making parliament work.
From the Liberal perspective, these results must be deeply troubling. Despite a new leader, and party coffers refilling, the Liberals are not competitive for government at the moment. They desperately need something to shake up the current pattern of support. It may be mildly encouraging for the Liberals to note, however, that they have whittled the Conservatives 15-point lead down to 10 points.”
The Liberal Party dominance is evident smaller is better trust me!
This story was written before the FINAL numbers in 2009 of financial contributions. Only the second quarter was a significant improvement for the Liberals. In 2010 the Liberals are on track to repeat the 2008 fundraising levels of $ 5.8 million down from $ 9 million.  Don't worry move along nothing to worry about.

In 2010 with numerous criticisms of the Conservative agenda, the Liberals have decided against voting no confidence in our Conservative led federal government.  In an attempt to divide or provide comic relief (not sure yet leaning on comic) for the Conservative Caucus over  Maternal Health you party manages to blow itself up. A pattern is evident: make a major public relations gaffe, ask for free publicity  air time on the CBC to do damage control. (One small problem CBC news program ratings stink).

You need  to get on a top rated show like HNIC with Don Cherry. You can always try those American Game shows on the CBC as they have good ratings.
  • Dion tried that two days after the CTV meltdown by visiting "The Hour". George was not impressed.
  • Ignatieff after losing the Liberal sponsored tax funded Abortions in Africa vote, he followed Dion with a Bad Day at the office. George again looked unimpressed.  
If I don't have the data, does the data exist?  Warren, I have been told by you of two polls,  one that had a big lead and than a small lead. I have been told to get lost by you and do my own research. Without the information being made publicly available it can be classified as speculation or conjecture?

What can NOT be viewed as speculation or conjecture is information in the public domain that has withstood scrutiny. The Conservatives have dominated the fundraising since the rules changes by the Liberals in 2004. Nothing has changed except a blip or bump in Q2 2009 for the Liberals.
Exchange here
Clearly the Liberal base did show up for former Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua and gave him a substantial  margin of victory weeks earlier. Your criticism for putting rookies in Winnipeg North is a valid criticism. against the NDP and Conservatives. What was the excuse for the Liberals to appoint a rookie at the last minute against a big name that your team was trying to recruit in Vaughan?

Do Liberals have no star candidates or big names willing to run under the Ignatieff Liberals? In Winnipeg North 7,589 NDP voters of 2008 did not show up. In Vaughan 9,510  Liberal voters felt Michael Ignatieff's pick was not worthy of their vote or effort, perhaps it was too cold?

In Winnipeg North Judy lost her campaign for Mayor to the incumbent after a successful career as the NDP MP. This 'red flag' of an NDP collapse was evident on election night. Why was Mayor Elect Maurizio Bevilacqua unavailable on the campaign hustings or at the launch for Tony Genco in order to help the Michael Ignatieff led Liberals hold the riding after a large number of Vaughan voters endorsed him just weeks earlier?

Party like it was 2008! If the Liberals and NDP were able to hold to their 2008 raw votes they would have held their seats easily. They didn't.

In both those cases, "safe" seats have became vulnerable because the base did not show up resulting in a change. In the  case  of Dauphin the third contest also considered a safe seat a similar drop  in raw votes took place but the  Liberal NDP opponents failed to motivate their base to show up. The raw votes  fell by 2,647 for Liberals and 1,129 for the NDP vs their 2008 results. In Vaughan Fantino was able to fall short by only 130 votes of 2008.

Empty rhetoric won't replace the missing ammo
Without a strong foundation you can not hope to build a house or a political party. Liberals don't have a strong or motivated base contrary to public opinion of their cheerleaders.
Klondike Restaurant: PM and MP's with staff
Warren I have praised your contribution to the Sun and look forward to your insight on everything Liberal. I  simply can't dismiss those pesky balance sheets, two general elections results, seven by elections that the Conservatives have earned 71% vs 14% your team, these FACTS are NOT speculative or conjecture. Conservatives don't appear to be worn out or losing momentum. according to Ken Dryden on October 2010.  I am not qualified to give medical advice for what ails the Liberal base but 59% want a leadership change while 74% of the Conservative base don't. I am confident after the next general election if just two per cent of the Liberal base in Ontario take another pass on the Liberal party led by Ignatieff, our PM will have his majority without Quebec.
Think happy thoughts, Cheers.

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