|Media Outlets: Election speculation|
Some in the news media have begun to ramp up the speculation of a general election and cabinet shuffle again. Every Fall for the last few years the Conservatives have pulled away from the Liberals. This pattern has also repeated itself during the last two campaigns when support for the Liberals is most important. The Liberal base has been shrinking from 2000 when they captured over one hundred seats in Ontario to give them their last majority. It appears the remaining Liberals are stuck in those glory years of a divided right and weak left. That was a generation ago. Russel Crowe won best actor in Gladiator. U2 won record of the year Beautiful Day. The political elite in Canada and the United States may not like the change, but it's coming.
Just yesterday Ignatieff in a scrum suggested the resignation of NDP Carole James would help his party and reinforce the two man race. Is Ignatieff aware of the problems of the Liberal brand in BC, Ontario and Quebec?
|Liberals tried to paint Vaughan Red: It failed|
Ontario voters have had seven years of provincial Liberal government and most polls point to a change, an election is expected in October 2010. In British Columbia and Quebec both Liberal premiers are very unpopular. In NB the Liberal experiment was terminated with a large swing for Conservatives. This never happened before as voters appear to running out of patience for the Liberal brand of wealth redistribution. The Liberal brand is not sexy. Liberalism is being dumped globally as a credible solution for government.
Is it time to pull the plug on the opposition and give Ignatieff a dose of reality? Will the voters punish the opposition MPs effectively by giving the Conservatives a majority?
Although the Conservatives in the past have used various strategies to get to a majority, most recently the narrow casting of issues suggests a new majority riding cluster strategy has emerged. In this paradigm, the Conservatives narrow cast messages to clusters of ridings on a diversity of issues such as crime, the long gun registry and social issues that align with their base and which divide the opposition. With a sweeping pan-Canadian mandate more difficult to attain, it would seem that the Conservatives are more focused on clusters of ridings and issues which divide the opposition to allow the Conservatives to divide the non-Harper universe.-Nik Nanos
It is no coincidence the last few months the shift to law and order agenda have been front and centre for the Conservative led government. They feel they can make inroads into the suburbs in BC, Ontario where gang violence is a problem and the Liberal solutions have failed.
If you read anything else today: Please read this blog post. It sums up the problem facing the old political parties.