Saturday, April 16, 2011

Liberal Implosion underway?

Did anyone outside the bubble believe the Liberals were going to fix their brand in thirty six days with heavy adverstisement and fluffing from the friendly media? Canadians are much smarter than some media give credit. The media spinners might believe they can still shape public opinion with flogging silly issues. From climategate to wafer gate our media has not realized how far they have fallen into disrepute for not protecting the perception of their own bias and credibility. The Social media explosion has changed the landscape at home and over seas.
Short of a game-changer between now and May 2, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals will take a beating in Quebec next month. -Chantal Hébert
The Ignatieff campaign reminds me of the Martin campaign in 2006. The invisible platform with incoherent messaging and the inability to stay on track.  Will the media provide analysis on why the Liberals failed to close the gap in the last few weeks?

“People love to talk about strategies. But frankly, at the end of the day, logistics are at least as important, if not more important. There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about strategy and professionals talk about logistics… After the fact people go back and point to their own genius, or something that put it over the top, but as a matter of fact it’s a whole lotta luck.” (Party campaign manager) -Alex Marland, POLITICALMARKETING IN MODERN CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS

More striking than this continuity in personnel was the continuity, a.k.a. immobility, in the Board’s thinking and attitudes. Its practice had been consistently to hype expectations about the leader’s performance, “Making History” being the prototypically inflated title they had given Martin’s all things-to-all-people acceptance speech at his leadership convention victory two years before. Having ousted Chrétien and ostracized rivals by the time Martin took power in Ottawa, the Board had proceeded to deepen divisions and alienate other Liberals rather than heal wounds and bring together the party’s different camps. –Stephen Clarkson, How the Big Red Machine Became the Little RedMachine

Key Liberals absent in 2011, are some just attending staged publicity events as they did in Dion Green Shift campaign in 2008?

Does it makes sense to bring out CBC labelled Liberal “heavy hitters”, “all-stars” like Jean Chretien and Paul Martin in the last half of the campaign? Some of us think this illustrates the tone-deafness of the media and Liberal party who still view these two men as assets vs. liabilities. Chretien never faced the united right centre party that exist today. The NDP traditional campaign messaging was not resonating with their base. Martin did repeat the Chretien strategy on the pulling the plug in May giving the Conservatives very little time to adjust after their conference selecting Stephen Harper as their leader in December.

The Conservative Party political organization’s strength was evident last week. They were able to provide a casual link from research within 48 hours of an internet Face book picture with of a guest that might pose a risk of a staged publicity event during the campaign. The media and opposition parties tried to run with it and create another issue. It failed. The Conservative party messaging has been consistent with 2008.   The other  parties have not been able to match the speed and sophistication at which the Conservatives have developed their intelligence gathering capabilities.
How will this affect the ground game the advance polls and Election Day?

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

NDP-Liberal leaders Failed To Defend Multiculturalism

Is it me but did the views by Gilles Duceppe referring to multiculturalism as threat to Quebec distinct society not merit more scrutiny from the Press? Did anyone notice the Jack and Mike response? Can you imagine if ANY conservative made those statements?
Is Terry M. covering PM flight to Geneva making him cranky?
Duceppe also tried to compare the foreign affairs record of our PM to George W. Bush. Our PM quickly took him to task and bragged about Canada's efforts in Haiti and Libya. Our PM reminded the pickering speakers  of the UN recognition and  Canada's appointment on the maternal health file.

Our PM gave the each of the leaders a reminder why voters have given Conservatives two mandates. They tried to suggest our foreign aid was cut back, Jack and Michael failed. Who will defend multiculturalism, minorities in Quebec from the Bloc and PQ? It does not appear the NDP or Liberals have the stomach to take their coalition partner to the woodshed for his comments.

Our PM was able to remind the unhappy participants that Canada is doing very well compared to other developed economies. They could not refute his comments. They could also not attack the experts and economists that raising taxes will cost $ 40 billion in investment and 200,000 jobs. This debate had  our PM laying out his message to voters why a majority is necessary. Ignatieff was clearly agitated by our PM asking for a majority to stop the bickering and give Canadians a break from the constant electioneering every two years. I believe our PM made his case by the lack of substance on display from the opposition leaders.

The three Amigos tried the fear card on the Long Gun registry, hidden agenda on abortion, capital punishment and healthcare. It fell flat. The track record is clear and the Conservative priorities and cooperation led the longest minority in Canadian history.

The last five years this Conservative government has been spending billions on requipping our military, restoring cuts to pensions, health, education and social services from the previous Liberal administration. This Conservative government did not attack the most vulnerable to balance their federal books. Ignatieff did not brag about the Chretien-Martin legacy about those tough decisions.

The NDP and Liberals supported the Bloc motion to require all Supreme Court judges pass tests in French. They also joined the Bloc in blocking the Bill on Democratic Reform to add seats to Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia in the 40th Parliament. Chantal Herbert noted this was the worst performance of Gilles Duceppe.

What else can we expect from Jack and Michael in appeasement of the Bloc?

The poll pegs Conservative support across the country at 45%, Liberal support at 24%, the NDP at 16%, Bloc support at 8% and Green Party support at 7%. Thankfully with numbers like these if they hold up for advance voting and May 2, 2011, Canadians won't need to rely on the NDP or Liberals to protect minorities in Quebec.

Monday, April 11, 2011

Canadian Media in cooperation with Coalition?

Nik Nanos Research
Is it me but we are within the margin of error for the national and regional numbers in most cases. Where is the Liberal momentum? The NDP numbers are down just outside the m.o.e. but it is too early and a ground game is very important. The Liberals are missing eighty candidates, winning a minority at the ballot box was not in their gameplan? Is the coalition in good standing the reason to trigger an election before the economy fully recovers the best case scenario for the Liberals pushing a fourth election in seven years?

The following projection is based upon a blended and weighted sample of polls from Ekos, Forum Research, Angus Reid and Nanos conducted between April 4-10, 2011, comprising over 7000 respondents has the Conservatives gaining seven seats and the Liberals losing one.- Laurier Institute of the Study of Political Opinion and Study. The polls have been steady with a blip for the Conservatives into majority territory briefly. Our media has been consistent in reporting a resurgence without any basis in fact.
The current leader appears to be in protected by our media who are ignoring his voting record in the UK and claims about voting for John Kerry in the United States in 2004. Interesting times when our media keeps switching its integrity watch to suit the underperforming Liberals.

Friday, April 08, 2011

Green Shift II: Coalition Tax Grab?

It is interesting watch some in our Media outlets making stuff up and providing cover for the Liberals during this campaign. We saw the same thing when the Liberals allowed a vote in the Senate to kill a reckless enviromental bill. Why is the media refusing to ask tough questions regarding the policy platform of the Liberals, NDP and Bloc? Many of us don't care about a few mistakes from vetting to crowd control. We understand this happens with EVERY election.  Where is the fact checking on the big issues and spending promises? Anyone curious how Ignatieff latest series of promises are not included in his platform?

We have seen the Liberal experiment with buying used military equipment: we have a sub fleet that can't use it's torpedoes.

On the CBC last night it appeared for a brief moment, a few on the At Issue Panel were doing a mea culpa admitting the media is to blame for the lack of issues being discussed. It lasted for about five minutes. Our state broadcaster is doing a horrible job in getting answers to questions that matter. We are getting talking points recycled and spin from the guests. Why are we diverting over a billion dollars to a state broadcaster that can't seem to get reporting the news in a balanced manner on a campaign that has only thirty-six days?

Liberals are refusing to discuss the detail in their latest Carbon Tax Scheme on page 46 in their platform. It hints to Green Shift. The public won't know until after the troika seize power if the Conservatives don't win an outright majority. Is this issue not newsworthy?

In the coming weeks and months we Liberals look forward to speaking with Canadians and asking them to join a growing coalition. A coalition that crosses party lines and will move us beyond outdated notions of what it means to be right- or left-wing. – A message from Stéphane Dion Green Shift  ( website no longer exists and they have scrubbed it from their website)
Green Shift I Taxes on Business and Consumers
Ignatieff is left of the Dion led Liberals in 2008. Dion had promised to keep lowering the costs for business. This professor understood the Chretien-Martin Liberal track record. He did not subscribe to attacking banks and oil companies as villains or rich in his campaign to become the PM.
Broad-based corporate income tax reductions: We will accelerate and deepen the currently planned corporate tax cuts, reducing the general corporate tax rate by an additional one per cent within four years.
That means the federal corporate tax rate in Canada will be only 14 per cent by the fourth year. This will make Canada one of the most competitive jurisdictions in the world, attracting businesses that will be part of a sustainable, green, Canadian economy. (Page 36 Greenshift)

When will the media hold the political parties to account for NOT costing out their promises? If Canadians are expected to make an informed decision to elect their MP and Federal government it is time to stop the navel gazing. If a political party has major promises not costed in their platform or refuses to provide an explanation for their policies shouldn't that be pressing issue for the news-opinion panels?

Thursday, April 07, 2011

Will Coalition Disrupt Canadian Success Story?

A party that seeks independence for the French-speaking province of Quebec has assumed a disproportionate role in the politics of Canada, the country it would like to see broken up.

The perennially strong electoral showing of the Bloc Quebecois in the province has made it all but impossible for rival parties to win a majority in the federal Parliament, allowing the separatist party to play the role of kingmaker.

The CSN, the second largest union, had an extraordinary council meeting Monday to co-ordinate their strategy to do whatever it takes to beat the Harper government with a riding-by-riding choice. Duceppe’s lips were also the first loose ones last Monday to admit he will vote against the budget of a minority Tory government if that is the outcome of the current election. Layton and Ignatieff followed.

The 2010 international merchandise trade annual review reveals that exports rose 9.5% to $404.6 billion, led by higher exports of industrial goods and materials. Imports increased 10.6% to $413.6 billion, as volumes rose in all sectors.
The United States' share of Canada's trade (exports and imports combined) continued to fall in 2010, although it remained Canada's largest trading partner. The United States represented 62.5% of total merchandise trade in 2010, down from 76.3% in 2001. During the same period, Canada's trade with China more than tripled.

“The Canadian dollar upward trend remains,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst in Washington at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange Inc., a currency brokerage. “There’s strong underlying support there, rather than just speculative positioning, which suggests sustained strengthening.”

Does it make sense to replace our PM and allow Quebec separatists to decide who the next PM will be? A majority on May 2, 2011 will be the only option for voters to prevent this outcome.

Wednesday, April 06, 2011

Media Pushing Own Agenda: Ignore Coalition Reality

Desperate Democrats will deal with the Quebec Separatists to control the financial levers of the Federal Government. Terry Grier was charged with developing and leading a “Scenarios Committee”. A coalition agreement was tried in 2004 with PM Martin. He rebuffed the NDP proposal at first. He was overconfident that he could play the opposition parties against each other.(Pg 33)

To that end, a package of amendments to the government upcoming Throne Speech was developed by all three parties. The NDP focus was parliamentary reform.  The meaning of the letter is perfectly plain. (Pg 34) Government defeat so soon after a general election meant GG would to turn ‘to one of us’ to form a government. (Page 35) Layton concluded he and our party had no obvious interest in making Stephen Harper Prime Minister. He withdrew from the three party groups. (Pg 35)
The NDP were taking flak from their own base propping up the “corrupt” Liberals.
During the 2008 campaign Jack Layton was determined to replay the coalition talks with the Liberals this time with Dion. The NDP did not anticipate the collapse of popular support for the Liberals in 2008. They did not anticipate the shortage of seats to form a coalition deal between the Liberals and NDP. NDP-Liberals required the support of the Quebec Separatists. After Dion resigned it fell to the deputy leader Michael Ignatieff.  Every Liberal leader will be approached and the Bloc will be vital if the Lib-NDP fail to win support outside Quebec.
The Ignatieff led Liberals felt the global recession would cause the taxpayers to rethink their support for the Conservatives. For a brief few months he did enjoy a honeymoon. It ended in 2009 and his leadership and support have been mired behind Layton ever since.

Jack Layton wanted us to figure out a way to remove the Conservatives from office to replace them with a coalition government, turning the tables of Mr. Martin’s own proposed parliamentary manoeuvres to replace him. (Page 46 Book, Interview Sept 22, 2008 Toronto Star)
On Friday November 28, 2008 Ignatieff's team wanted to negotiate a similar deal that had Paul Martin as PM in 2005 with concessions in their budget. The NDP were not interested in returning to that arrangement. Ignatieff's team were concerned about giving away their cabinet seats and the optics of the NDP-BLOC with their hands on the levers of power.
The media backlash against the Conservatives warning the taxpayers is evident in 2011. The media is ignoring the real story that will see large parts of Canada excluded from Government. They are desperate to minimize the threat of the Quebec Separatist party having control of the Federal Government. If you examine the 2008 results and the LGR vote the coalition does not have legitimacy outside Quebec.

Ten days into the campaign the media has taken an active role in pushing the narratives from the opposition war rooms. Instead of a platform with scrutiny on policy, the media have decided to advance the mistakes of crowd control (staging) and the relationship of an ex-staffer that is under investigation as their “news that matters” during the next 36 days. Due process is not available to Conservative supporters. It is comical how many interventions have been done on behalf of Omar Khadr in our parliament by the opposition. Rehabilitation is not applicable to Conservatives.
Each opposition party has stated they won’t support the Throne Speech from the Conservatives; a majority is the only option to avoid a coalition of losers in 2011. The public are being misled by the usual cabal of media personalities in their refusal to inquire about the scenarios committee and the threat to a united Canada from the back room dealings with the Quebec separatists.
Polls for the past three months have consistently shown the Conservatives within reach of a majority. There are two reasons for this good news. First, the Tories have by far the best organization in the field. Second, for a long time, Stephen Harper has believed in, and argued on behalf of, citizens assuming responsibility for the way they live instead of ceding control of their lives to bureaucrats. -Calgaryherald

Some in the media are willing to trust Ignatieff, Layton and Duceppe they won’t reform their coalition agreement. The opposition refused to give the Conservatives a sixth budget. This budget did NOT have enough goodies for their support; they did not wait to read it. How much more will taxpayers are paying for those extra goodies being demanded by the fringe opposition parties?

Frank Graves on CBC Power & Politics gave an analysis on support for a larger more activist government. He was clear this “looks like the harbringer of a potential disaster
Nik Nanos on April 5, 2011 has already stated the pattern is for the incumbent to lose the election. The usual suspects in the media are trying to inject their talking points from the opposition war rooms to influence the outcome.

·         Media  attack F35 program without requiring opposition alternative costed

·         Media highlight gaffes of incumbent vs Policy platform questions

Media  outlets are ignoring their failures in their biased attacks on Rob Ford during his campaign. Campaigns matter and an organization that gets out their vote will add another dozen seats. Canadians have tuned out the one-sided coverage that is devoid of policy analysis and context. What do you think? Is it time for some real news and Sunshine?

Tuesday, April 05, 2011

The Voldermort Coalition?

Each party has already announced they won't be respecting a return of another minority government under the Conservatives. Some in the media were very unhappy with our PM speaking about the power sharing deal that was hatched in 2008 again. Will our media ask how Parliament works if the CPC win one seat short of a majority? The power sharing agreement  between the three losers that won't be named is making our media look ridiculous.

A coalition that must not be named
Some in the media have been reporting  the Liberals have lifted the NDP platform once again. It appears the Liberals are willing to say anything to get elected and give reasons why those Red book promises were just ideas. If you examine the polls from the last six months Canadians prefer Layton to head the Lib-NDP coalition. The honeymoon for Ignatieff ended in May 2009 with his climb down from his four ultimatiums. From Report Cards to Blue Ribbon Panels, the Liberals have been very ineffective communicators as the official opposition party. The Liberals, traditionally most reliant on corporate and wealthy individual donors, are still struggling to adjust to their own reforms -Elitists take a pass on Little Red Wagon in 2011.

2011 Lollipop Guild? ( Liberals, NDP, Bloc)
We have had the opposition MPs complaining about the wrong direction of Canada under any Conservative government. They are unhappy with being the last to enter, the progress during and exiting the worst recession in fifty years. Can you imagine if our PM and his team did not have the left leaning Vuvuzela MPs in the majority?
Canada is expected to lead growth among G7 economies in the first and second quarter of this year, a new forecast predicts.
The Canadian economy likely grew 5.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year and 3.8 per cent in the second quarter, the OECD said in an economic outlook Tuesday. That prediction is much higher than most Canadian first-quarter forecasts of about 4 per cent.

In every province where the Liberals have governed for at least five years we SHOULD expect a large Conservative lead in the polls. (See the historic and unprecented NB taxpayer backlash ending the Liberal experiment to one term.)
If the polls hold up, an effective GOTV for the Conservatives, a collective sigh of relief for a majority of taxpayers will been realized.Who will head up the merger talks with the remaining Liberals and NDP MPs on May 3, 2011?

Monday, April 04, 2011

Liberals running on Empty?

It appears some Liberals will say anything to get elected. Too bad for them, most of us are not buying into their repackaged 70's snake oil called a Red Book. On May 2, 2011 a large number of MPs will be fired.

The polls are not lifting the Liberal leader. Some in the media are trying to their best to infuse life into the Liberal campaign. It's not working. The Toronto Sun is having a field day with Ignatieff the absentee MP. In 2008 Ignatieff was the Deputy leader and worked to push the Green Shift Platform resulting in the worst showing in over 150 years for the Liberals in popular support. Some Liberals think burying the Carbon Tax plan to a few parargraph on page 46 will work.

The Pollsters have found Ignatieff polling behind Layton on trust and confidence to manage the economy. Canadians were clear on wanting to wait until 2012. The opposition ignored the sixty per cent polled.

Each fringe opposition party has promised to vote against the Conservative budget regardless of the outcome. A large Conservative majority is the only viable option for four years of progress and quiet. A new media station will be able to provide news not being covered by the traditional outlets.

Saturday, April 02, 2011

Michael Ignatieff: Captain on Titanic?

I don't see many opportunities for the Liberals message to catch on in the next four weeks. Canadian taxpayers had two years and numerous visits from the Liberal spin machine to improve the Liberal brand. The provincial Liberals have been in power for nearly seven years in many provinces.

A single poll means nothing!

If the Liberal party ran an anyone but Ignatieff campaign in 2006 what makes them think in five years he would be qualified to fill in for Prime Minister? This rush to return to the polls by the Liberals to replace their leader will backfire as taxpayers have not forgiven the Liberals. Taxpayer are not angry with the direction of our country or federal government in large enough numbers to affect a change in government. What other Liberals will be held accountable?

Dalton McGuinty, Jean Charest on the other hand..

Friday, April 01, 2011

Tax Revolt Brewing In Ontario: Liberals Wiped out?

One down, one more to go?
Toronto, Ontario taxpayers will be informed through television, newspapers of the compensation levels in staffing from Toronto City Hall, and our Ontario Provincial Government over the next few days. Any idea how that will play with the Federal and NDP politicians promises to spend billions more on adding more public servants?

HST yes, no, yes. Thanks!
The Liberals decision to lift the NDP policy of attacking large corporations as rich or evil is going to alienate many fiscal-blue Liberals. Dion in his coalition accord in 2008 forced Layton to concede to his platform for a lower corporate tax climate to spur the economy. Ignatieff has tacked farther left than Dion in an attempt to supress the NDP vote in 2011. I think it is another tactical mistake to peel off the NDP base when your trust and leadership numbers are much lower.

There’s also global competition at play. Companies make decisions on where to invest, based on many factors. Even after the Jan 1 business tax cut, the combined federal and provincial rate is still above the OECD average, but below the G-7Canada won’t “fall off a cliff,” but it clearly sends the wrong message to companies and the rest of the world, argued Ian Lee, MBA director at Carleton University’s business school.-Liberal math does not add up

Mayor Rob Ford has been handed a new gift this week.
When the sun shone on the list of the top City of Toronto bureaucrats who raked in more than $100,000 last year, not surprisingly, an extra 65 employees were added in 2010.Toronto had 2,136 employees on the 100K club, up from 2,071 the previous year. The combined salaries of the more than 2,100 employees total more than $250 million. -City's 100K club grows to 2,136. Ontario fares worse! Will taxpayers be going to polls looking to punish the Liberals and the NDP who advocate in not cutting or reducing government?

The big earners on Sunshine List
• $1,325,119 — Ontario Power Generation president/CEO Tom Mitchell.
• $1,041,881 — University of Waterloo president/CEO David Johnston.
• $953,844 — Hydro One president/CEO Laura Formusa.
• $732,615 (plus $100,934 in taxable benefits) — St. Joseph’s Hospital in London president/CEO Clifford Nordal.
• $453,164 — Ontario Realty Corp. president/CEO David Glass.
• $431,403 — LCBO CEO Robert Peter.

Ontario set punish the Liberals
The following seat projection is based upon a weighted blending of polls from Nanos, Harris-Decima, Abacus and Forum Research that were drawn from March 24-29. The overall sample was approximately 6000. While the national total of seats allocated drops the Conservatives down below the magic number of 155, the real story of the past seven weeks is how stable public opinion and the polls have actually been. Throughout the last five LISPOP projections during this period, the Conservative number has varied only between 150 and 157 seats, and it is now in the middle of that rangeBy contrast, Ontario with a large number of swing seats hardly changed at all with the Conservatives maintaining a 10% lead over the Liberals.- LISPOP

King’s success has been ascribed by his critics to his uncanny talent for blurring political issues so as to maintain support among such ideologically opposed groups as farmers in the West, who demanded free trade, and manufacturers in central Canada, who demanded tariff protection. His genius for obfuscation was epitomized by his vacuous but successful 1935 campaign slogan, “King or Chaos.”  -Stephen Clarkson, THE BIG RED MACHINE How the Liberal Party Dominates Canadian Politics

The Liberal party has not come to understand how they come to hold seventy seven seats in 2011. They like to believe the leader was at fault and Canadians were duped with some bad press coverage. Much like the hype around the impact of social media on the political discussion on Twitter is still taking place within an echo chamber. Canadians will cast a their ballot in the fourth contest in seven years. It is very likely at least three opposition leaders will be retiring after the results are digested on May 2, 2011.

What do you think?