Saturday, December 11, 2010

Polls Don't matter: Ask the loser

Labor Party in UK asked voters to remember Thatcher Conservatism
What do public opinion polls do? If you are an alarmist you have cited them on a regular basis when your team was leading and demanded action.  What happens when the public change their mind and they want to get off the crazy train? Do alarmists yield to the latest series of polls as proof positive or do they become the "deniers" for being on the wrong side of public opinion? The Labor Party in the UK thought it was a good idea to have voters think about Margaret Thatcher and stoke fears that the David Cameron would bring back the 80's. Is that strategist in the Labor Party still employed?

Rock Star, King, Philosopher,  Nobel Prize Winner
I remember not too long ago when Republicans were mocked as was the Tea Party for being out of step or  out to lunch in comparison to the Democrats that swept all three branches and held power for as long as seven years  in  the congress. As we close out 2010 nearly two years have passed from the Democratic super majorities in all three branches. Many of mid-term polling numbers were fairly accurate in their predictions in calling a course correction. Any reason why those Democrats who finds themselves on the wrong side of public opinion are incapable of accepting the wishes of the public? Is the course correction noted in those mid-terms a result of a hanging chad?

Poll tracker 12 months Angus Dec 2009-December 2010
Angus Reid was the most accurate pollster in their prediction of the General elections results in 2008 in Canada .In the twelve months in 2010 the Liberals have only hit thirty per cent once in February 2009: after the mainstream media doubled down by spending months on a seventeen sitting day break called prorogue. Our PM in a masterstroke than canceled the March Break for the whiners.

Media Coverage of Prorogue
The MSM called it a threat to democracy and spend hundred of hours telling us NDP and Liberals were not involved in a grassroots face book movement. The Media failed miserably in providing a balanced position. It took an earthquake in Haiti and the Winter Olympics to shake off the obsession by the media outlets. 

 This event is a constitutional tool used regularly by the current and previous governments. With so much manufactured outrage, the public to the chagrin of the MSM gatekeepers could not restore the public perception of their chosen party. The big red tent is resembling a worn out sleeping bag that has seen one too many long weekends.

That can't be good. The last time Angus had the Liberals ahead in 2009 was during the summer month July.
The Conservative Party would coast to another minority government if a new federal election were held today, and 46% of Liberal Party supporters in Canada are questioning whether their current leader should be at the helm when the next ballot is called.- Angus Poll December 12, 2010
The  Conservatives are supported by 39 per cent of decided voters, up four points from a month ago. By comparison, Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals remain at 29% of the decided vote. The NDP, led by Jack Layton, would garner 12% of the vote, down four points from last month. The Green party, led by Elizabeth May, would receive 9% of the vote, down two points.-Ispos Reid

Nik Nanos 2002 -2010 Liberals sinking
It should be on no shock that the numbers for Conservative go up every fall when parliament resumes. It appears the media has become the opposition and use the summer breaks and winter holidays to create mischief of some conspiracy to end our democratic system to herald the end times. The Nik Nanos graph highlights the drop in popular support for the Liberals. The NDP and Green voters have recovered at the Liberals expense. The Conservatives  have won 57% of the seats excluding QC in 2008. 

General Election results Quebec CBC 2008
The separatist party in Quebec (Bloc) have won 65% of the seats with 38.1% of the popular support in 2008.  The Conservatives have won five out of seven by elections for 71% success rate since winning their first  mandate in 2006.  The three federal parties and one independent won a total twenty five seats with 62% of the popular vote. in 2008. It appears the Liberals and NDP are not willing to add seats to Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta for fear of upsetting the separatists party in the upcoming campaign. Democratic reform is on hold in the senate and parliament because the lack of political backlash threat in Quebec. Apparently the Liberals and NDP don't see a problem denying the growing population centres in the western provinces and Ontario.
PM attends Edmonton -Hockey Game
Just another reason why a Conservative majority in parliament is required. On the Hill the same media outlets are suggesting the Conservatives are poised to win a majority, cabinet shuffle, prorogue,  spring election without identifying actual sources in their articles. Will the addition of high profile Conservatives Julian Fantino, Larry Smith, Bernard Lord, Cecil Clarke be enough to break the log jam in remaining urban pockets?

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