Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Shellacking on Hold: 42% vote for CPC

Conservatives are 5/7 caption is wrong: 71% victory in by elections since 2006
Incumbents are punished is the rule of thumb when voters are angry. In the US the democrats have seen a historic sweep not repeated since 1938. In New Brunswick it was the first time in history a first term incumbent was not returned. Large parts of our Liberal media in Canada are unable to grasp the concept that the Conservative Party of Canada is growing and the coalition of the left is imploding.

The turnout of thirty per cent on Monday reflects voters are not engaged, worried about the direction of the country, and government. Campaigns matter. The Conservative won two of three races for 66% success last night. In 2008 they won two of four for 50% taking a long held seat from the Bloc.

Vaughan had the highest turn out with 32%.  Big Red Tent Folded.
I don't think the opposition leaders should be bragging after the results last night. In 2008 they were soundly defeated in a general election. Liberals suffered worst P.O.P. in 150 years. In the two years since the general election we have had seven contests to punish the incumbent Conservatives for being "mean-spirited", "ideological" and not being able to manage the government effectively. Reality can be cruel but the MSM and opposition appear to be out of touch with actual results of voters. In the five years since losing power the Liberals are farther from the prize while the Conservatives keep moving forward making gains in Ontario and Quebec.
  • Conservatives 57% success rate in seven contests.
  • Liberals 14%
  • NDP 14%
  • Green 0%
  • Bloc have 50% on only two contests tied with Conservatives in QC.
WPG North and Vaughan were long held seats by NDP and Liberals with large margins. Judy and Maurizio both vacated their seats for Mayoralty contests. Maurizio easily won his contest while Judy fell to the incumbent.

the voters have spoken, " and reject the fear mongering and risky Michael Ignatieff coalition.
In WPG North the Liberals fielded a high profile candidate with experience against two rookies in Chief and Javier. In Vaughan the Liberals were criticized for not finding a star candidate. The Provincial Liberals additional funding for the hospital, the CBC At Issue Panel,  Toronto Star ramped up their negative messaging but felt short. Damage control in lowering expectations may work in temporarily deflecting blame to Genco vs Ignatieff. In my opinion the organization and it's leader is responsible.
Days before the campaign ended, Liberals were suggesting that Mr. Genco was going to lose -- by a wide margin -- a constituency where Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua took 49 per cent of the vote in the 2008 election. But that could have been an effort to dampen expectations of a Liberal victory.

This was not the first test of leadership for Ignatieff as reported by Jane Taber on CTV or was it Jack's. Jack and Michael should go back and look at the results from the seven contests in 2009-2010. They should examine the NB sweep of Liberals from power after only one term and rejection of Democrats. They should look at failure to attract high profile candidates and the donations. Are they winning or losing the war of public opinion and support of their base?

Gloria Galloway and Nelson Wiseman come to aid of Michael Ignatieff in the next article. Sorry guys:  Dion was criticized for the  not listening, ineffective management the party, fielding of poor candidates and balance sheet problems. Dion and Ignatieff have both had two years to turn the ship around and the results are clear.
“I think this is totally overblown about the impact that this has on Ignatieff,” said Dr. Wiseman. “For better or for worse, the Liberals are going into the next election with Ignatieff and it’s not the Outremont by-election, in my opinion, that undid Dion. What it was, was the general election.” -Damage Control Part II

The CPC are eligible to have the rebate for capturing at least 10% of the vote in each riding and their turnout went up in both ridings they did not hold. Is it time to stop playing small politics and actually make parliament work for all Canadians?

Jack Layton 1981 1987 after Monday's results he is wishing someone could beam him up right about now.
If I was batting 14% against a team batting 57% 71%  after seven contests, I might reconsider talking trash before they call me on it. Elections Canada results here. The CPC were able to capture 41.9% of the vote in the three contests. The Liberals managed 39.0% while the NDP fell back to 15.8%. The Green managed 2.0%.-Pundits Guide.
With the Christmas break coming shortly, the unsuccessful opposition leaders may want to rethink their messaging before the voters punish them in a general election.

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