Ignoring the canaries in the coal mine at your own peril.
Janine Krieber waited one year to publicize her comments about the demise of the Liberal Party. Denis Coderre resigned his lieutenants' position within the Liberal Party in public before the November by-elections in 2009. Both these people were marginalized after wards by the Liberal Party. Prior to their public comments their loyalty was not questioned. It has will be decade since Canadians have looked to and rewarded Liberals with the keys to 24 Sussex. Some in the media believe it was an aberration, bad timing, a minor scandal and with a little help from the media the Liberals wil be restored to governing toute sweet!
I am not here to burst that bubble, or destroy the revival of support for the Liberal Party. I will let the facts speak for themselves.
I will not shoot the messenger, I applaud his ability to criticize every political party including the media in being unable to point out the facts behind reluctance for electing a majority government after 2000.
These facts may be inconvienent for the Liberal apologists, but the political games they have been pushing for years may cost them dearly in the next general election. Canadians are much smarter than the Liberals give them credit.
I will make a case that reflect the difficulty of returning to a majority government in the near future until the additional 38 seats are added to British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario. I suspect those additional seats will take place in 2015.
The current Parliament is made up of 308 seats. Examining the "Perfect Storm" for the Liberals' last majority and why it may not be repeatable until the new seats are added.
The Liberals have been in power for nearly seven years and many voters in Canada had lost faith with the Liberal promises and platform of the Red Book. The last majority took place in 2000 with the Liberals who captured 172 seats in a Parliament with 301 seats*.
They were able to win Ontario with 100 seats and 36 in Quebec with a national average turnout of 60.2%.
A total of 88 seats were available in Western Canada which consists of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Did Western Canada reject or embrace the Liberal Party in 2000?- What do you call the 2000 results of 14/88 seats with a 25.3% of vote? Did the West participate in the last Liberal Majority?
In BC 34 seats available (63% T.O.) higher than the national average, the Liberals won 5 seats with 27.7%, the NDP won 2 seats with 11.3%, Canadian Alliance won 27 seats with a 49.4%, PC failed to win any seats with 7.3%, and the rest accounted for 2.2% failed to win any seats as well.
In AB 26 seats available (60.2% T.O.) equal to the national turnout, the Liberals won 2 seats with 20.9%, the NDP failed to win any seats with 5.4%, the Canadian Alliance won 23 seats with 58.9%, the PC won one seat with 13.5%, and the rest accounted for 0.8% without any seats.
In SK 14 seats available (62.3% T.O.)higher than the national average, the Liberals won 2 seats with 20.7%, the NDP won 2 seats with 26.2%, the Canadian Alliance won 10 seats with 47.7%, the PC failed to win any seats with 4.8%, and the rest failed to win any seats with 0.2%
In MB 14 seats available (62.3% T.O) higher than the national average, the Liberals won 5 seats with 32.5%, the NDP won 4 seats with 20.9, the Canadian Alliance won 4 seats with 30.4%, the PC won one seat with 14.5%, the rest failed to win any seats with 1.7%.
- In Central Canada, the Liberals won 136/178 seats with 48.3%.The NDP won 1 seat with 5.5%, the Canadian Alliance won 2 seats with 16.0%, the PC won 1 seat with 10.6%, the rest won 1 seats with 2.3%.
Central Canada consists of Ontario and Quebec for a total of 178 seats.Central Canada held 59.1% of the seats in the parliament in 2000.
In ON 103 seats available (58.0% T.O.) lower than the national average, the Liberals won 100 seats with 51.5%, the NDP won 1 seat with 8.3%, the Canadian Alliance won 2 seats with 23.6%, the PC failed to win with 14.4%, the rest failed to win any seats with 2.6%.
In QC 75 seats available (64.1% T.O.) higher than the national average, the Liberals won 36 seats with 44.2%, the NDP failed any seats with 1.8%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any with 6.2%, the PC won 1 seat with 5.6%, the Bloc won 38 seats with 39.9%, the rest failed to win any seats with 2.4%.
- In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals won 19/32 seats with 40.2%, the NDP won 4 seats with 16.6%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any seats with 10.2%, the PC won 9 seats with 31.3%, and the rest failed to win any seats with 1.2%
Atlantic Canada consists of Newfoundland & Labrador, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia
In Nfld & Lab. 7 seats available (57.1% T.O.) lower than the national average, the Liberals won 5 with 44.9%, the NDP failed to win any seats with 13.1%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any seats with 3.9%, the PC won 2 seats with 34.5%, and the rest failed to win any seats with 3.7%.
In P.E.I. 4 seats available (72.7%) highest turnout in Canada and above the national average, the Liberals won 4 seats with 47.0%, the NDP failed to win any seats with 9.0%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any seats with 5.0%, the PC failed to win any seats with 38.4%, and the rest failed to win any seats with 1.1%.
In NS 11 seats available (62.9% T.O.) higher than national average, the Liberals won 4 seats with 36.5%,the NDP won 3 seats with 24.0%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any seats with 9.6%, the PC won 4 seats with 29.1%, the rest failed to win any seats with 0.8%.
In New Brunswick 10 seats available (67.7% T.O.) the second highest turnout in the nation, the Liberals won 6 seats with 41.7%, the NDP won 1 seat with 11.7%, the Canadian Alliance failed to win any seats with 15.7%, the PC won 3 seats with 30.5%, the rest failed to win any seats with 0.3%.
In 2000 Canadians with population of eligible voters of 21,243,373 resulted in 12,997,185 turning out for a 60.2%. Persichilli: Don't blame the Bloc for minority governments
In 2000 the financial Report showed the Liberals at $ 20, 067,820, the NDP $ 8, 978,136, the Canadian Alliance at $ 19, 641,006, the Bloc at $ 2, 259,759. -Pundits Guide
In 2008 a second General Election with the CPC in power?
In Western Canada, the Liberals won 7/92 with 16.3%, the NDP won 14 with 21.5%, the CPC won 71 seats with 52.5%, the rest failed to win any seats with 9.3%
In Central Canada, the Liberals won 52/181 with 29.7%, the NDP won 18 with 15.7%, the CPC won 61 seats with 32.0%, the BQ won 49 seats with 15.7%, the rest failed to win 7.0%
In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals won 17/32 seats with 35.0%, the NDP won 4 seats with 26.0%, the CPC won 10 seats with 29.6%, the rest won 1 seat 9.2%.
The seat loss in Ontario and Quebec has sent them to the cheap seats, not the West or Atlantic. In 2015 an addition thirty eight seats will be added to Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta.
I won't even link the financials. We all know how much larger the gap is between the Liberals and the CPC in 2010. On what alternate reality do we anticipate the voters in Ontario and Quebec dropping the Bloc, NDP, CPC for the Liberals for Michael Ignatieff's Liberals?
I want to thank Pundits Guide for the excellent site where the raw data and graph are available for verifying those 'pesky facts'.
2 comments:
The merger of the Alliance and the PC party is the primary reason for that massive decline illustrated above. It made a huge difference in Ontario.
If there was a formal merger of the NDP and the LPC, the new Coalition would gain a maximum of 7 seats West of Ontario. (and that's assuming that 100% of NDP and LPC voters migrate to the new Alliance).
Yes I have a link of the graphs months ago showing the fallacy of blaming the WEST or EAST for the Liberal misfortune and attacking it.
Ontario voters and Quebec left the Liberals in large numbers for all of the above including the Green Party.
The problem with the Liberals is they refuse to face the facts that it was Central Canada two largest provinces that was responsible for aborting their majority and hold on power.
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