Rossi was wise to abandon the S.S. Liberal for another gig before the fourth quarter results were made public. The front end was loaded resulting in the fourth quarter with a loss of nearly 700 "Big Fish".in the greater than $ 200 category.
Let's imagine the excuses for failing to catch the CPC juggernaut who raised over $ 17 million from over 40,000 donors.
Liberal excuses:- Blame it on the rain.
- Blame it on Rio.
- Blame it the
Harperrecession. - Blame it on H1N1- our Katrina.
- Blame it on a secretative rightwing idelogical republican agenda.
- Blame it on global warming.
- Blame it on the
Harperdeficit. - Blame it on those Just Visiting Ads.
- Blame it those Bodybags.
- Blame it on the letter "C" on those Olympic logos.
The Liberals have been down so long that their $3.7-million increase may look like up, but those numbers should be treated with caution -- 2009 donations were flattered by two large fund-raisers and a leadership convention that provided them with a very large (and likely un-repeatable) fund-raising bump in the second quarter. In addition, everything's relative and in 2008 their leader was Stéphane Dion.
Just another example how Iggymania has failed to materialize.Pundit's Guide hits nails it in October 1, 2009 noting the Big Fish may be tapped out.
As we've noted here earlier, in an analysis of party contributions by donation size, the Liberals appeared to emphasize large donations in the first half of the year, the result of several fundraising dinners costing the maximum contribution size, and the price of delegate fees to attend their biannual convention in Vancouver (see graph below of Fundraising by Week, which shows peaks for the Toronto fundraising dinner and Vancouver convention). They showed almost 2,000 donors of $1,000 or more (representing about 38% of their funds raised to date), compared with 500 or so in the same category for the Conservatives, representing 6% or so of their fundraising totals.
3 comments:
Come one dude, you should have closed with "whatever you do, don't put the blame on you!"
I wouldn't speak nearly so soon. In an election at this point anything could happen.
If not now, when, I will give credit if they pull the plug in March without advance warning.
It was a mistake to announce you are going to "attack". In 2009 for several months they were tied, MOE gave each party a lead and only in late September after the media created another story about an "Time is Up" did his numbers crash back to October 14, 2008 for 4 weeks? (Dion and below period)
Patrick the media has been pushing for an election "crisis" already January budget, June 2009 four ultimatiums, Sept Sudburyshowdown.
The media have largely driven the messaging for the opposition in 2009 and looks like in 2010.
I will ALWAYS defer to the wisdom and judgement of the voters. If the voters give the coalition power through a general election whoever the three stooges select and the grand poo-ba will be our PM until they implode.
I am not buying into the small series of Polls (2-3 weeks) as a significant trend.
The drop from 30's to 26 was noted by the same pollsters and similar dire warning and predictions. That lasted for four weeks.
Watch for the Nanos Poll next and if possible watch the clips Post analysis Oct 15, 2009 when Harper popped his gains on Sunday. It was arond the thanksgiving table: who do you trust to lead through the tough economic times.
http://www.youtube.com/user/CanadianSense#p/c/E4AFBB0056C2B392/9/zI3n50mLcLY
Today
The nominations are caught up according to Pundits Guide. The finances and ground game are comparing miles apart.
I think Kennedy efforts for years sewn up the close battleground.
In 2006 the CPC won ontario in pop vote but did not win the seats. In 2008 they won both pop vote and seats by over 5%.
The last majority for Liberals was a result of Ontario and Quebec in 2000. The Liberals were over 50% in Ontario capturing 100 seats.
Ontario is Polling tied or small leads exchanges within MOE.
The November 2009 elections results should NOT be discounted.
The lack of "new" donors to Iggymania in 2009 and departure of loyalists in his camp.
My "own" opinion is he is being pushed out and the media is trying to create the conditions to help him exit through an election.
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