Tuesday, February 16, 2010

Political Polling For Junkies

Is this Ground Hog Day at  the Liberal Bunker? I bet they wish they were successful in pulling the plug in August 2009.
July 2008 before the PM invited each opposition leader for Tea and an interest in supporting the CPC Fall Agenda.
 Angus Poll July 2008
Does this look familiar with Feb 2010 or worse for the Liberals?
Are the Liberals willing to seek a "mandate" and remove confidence on March 4, 2010?  Let's hope they ignore the realities and push the new improved Photo-op'd Platform contrived during the Prorogue as the Polling and media reinforce the "virtual tie" for the last few weeks. (I am in the minority who actually want an election,  I know)
Here's why a small dose of reality that escapes most apologists for the Liberals. History has a habit of being cruel to those who are ignorant and do not learn from their previous mistakes. Teaching moment.
The majority of Canadians do not hold positive views on the possibility of the Grits recapturing power. Fifty-seven per cent of respondents disagree with a statement saying that the Liberal Party would do a good job if it forms the next federal government. Ontario also holds the highest number of respondents who express confidence in an eventual government led by the Liberal Party (41%), followed by Atlantic Canada (38%) and British Columbia (35%).
Skepticism in the Liberals doing a good job as the next federal government increases with age. While 49 per cent of respondents aged 18-34 disagree with this notion, the proportion jumps to 57 per cent for middle-aged Canadians, and 64 per cent for older Canadians.-Angus Poll Sept 10, 2008
Has anything really changed in last four years to give the Liberals the benefit of doubt?
I hope to show how the Polls can move quickly in a short period of time when VOTERS are given an opportunity to send a message to the clowns political parties wishing to govern in Ottawa. The Liberals were polling to hold or make gains in Ontario, Atlantic Canada and British Columbia. How did that work out for the Liberals?
Angus Poll Oct 2008 Regional Prediction vs Actual: General Election (Most accurate in predicting final election results)

Ontario Angus October 2008
British Columbia Angus October 2008
Quebec Angus October 2008
Over two years of CPC in power and voters give the Liberals the worst P.O.P. since confederation!
Let's review: Nearly one year later, a month prior to the "Time is Up" gaffe by Michael Ignatieff. A six point national lead for the current governement. Internal Polling by the Liberals was denied at the time leading up to the Sudbury photo-op.
  • Liberals are 7% ahead of the NDP in BC.
  • Liberals are 9% ahead of the NDP in Alberta.
  • Liberals are ahead of NDP in MB/SK
  • Liberal are polling at 40% in ATL, nine points ahead of the second place NDP.
  • Liberals are nine points behind the Bloc in Quebec with a double digit gap ahead the other federal parties. 
Angus Poll August 2009
 Four years adrift Michael destroys any momentum in September opening a double digit lead for the government-thanks. Media pile on making more jokes and calls for his resignation. December 30, 2009 Media catches opposition party leaders offshore while pushing latest fake scandal. MI returns from France and begins a month of photo-ops pretending they are back to work after the extended Christmas Break. Michael is busy in Vancouver for more photo ops hoping to cash in with the great television ratings.
Angus Poll Feb 2010 
Let's compare August 2009 vs Feb 2010
  • The Liberals fallen back to third -2% while NDP +9%
  • The Liberals have improved from 50 points behind to 44 the CPC in Alberta.
  • The Liberals have lost their nine point lead from the NDP and fallen to third place. Gap reduced from 31 to 26 point in MB/SK with the CPC.
  • The Liberals have cut the four point lead in half of the CPC in Ontario. NDP are +9.
  • Quebec has NOT shifted much.
  • Atlantic NDP lose nine points to the Green, CPC no change, Liberals up 4 points.
So the NDP other than Atlantic Regionals have recovered most of their weakness in polling and the gap for the most part has not changed from August 2009. Groundhog Day at Liberal HQ.
Anyone remember in September 2008 how the Liberals were polling one month before the PM provided a teaching moment?
How is the media reporting the latest polling, today?
If people are critical of what you call media bias (Canadian media outlets favour a specific party over others) you can remind they are in the minority with only 20% in support of their position.

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1 comment:

Blame Crash said...

I have no trust in polling companies. They are a just a different form of advertising and public relations.

No matter what they've been saying lately, I would welcome another election ASAP.

Theirs no doubt that Iffy is going to come out of an election looking a lot like that scrawny Wile E. Coyote does after having a run in with the Road Runner