Canadians are going to the Polls in four ridings on Monday November 9, 2009. The National media has been busy talking about novelty cheques, a non crisis, long lines, a vaccine shortage that does not exist. Historically by-elections have a low turnout and the each party "Spins" the results. When Dion failed to hold/win seats in a similiar manner, some inside his party used it to advance their leadership. If the Liberals fail to win any of the four seats, will those who want a new leader have more ammunition?
The four by elections cover British Columbia, Nova Scotia and two ridings in Quebec. The Liberals are leading in NONE. The NDP and Bloc are trying to hold on both their ridings.
Will Michael Igntieff wear the "loss" for failing to see any wins in those four ridings?“From the Liberal perspective, these results must be deeply troubling. Despite a new leader, and party coffers refilling, the Liberals are not competitive for government at the moment. They desperately need something to shake up the current pattern of support. It may be mildly encouraging for the Liberals to note, however, that they have whittled the Conservatives 15-point lead down to 10 points.”-GHOST OF ELECTION PAST: TORIES, LIBS NOW MATCH ELECTION ’08 EXACTLY
Conservatives Remain Well Ahead of Struggling Liberals
[TORONTO – Oct. 29, 2009] – The Conservative Party maintains a considerable advantage over the opposition, according to the Canadian Political Pulse, conducted by Angus Reid Strategies in partnership with the Toronto Star.Voting Intention
Across the country, 40 per cent of decided voters (-1 since mid-October) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding if a new federal election took place today. The Liberals are a distant second at 26 per cent (-1), exactly the proportion of the vote that the party received in the October 2008 federal election.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) is third with 17 per cent (+1), followed by the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent (+1), and the Green Party with seven per cent (+1).
Regional Breakdowns
Once again, the Tories are clearly the top party in Alberta (52%) and have also made gains in Manitoba and Saskatchewan (73%). In British Columbia, the governing party is clearly in first place (43%), with the Liberals (27%) holding slight edge over the NDP (25%) for second place.
In Ontario, 41 per cent of decided voters would back the Conservatives, giving the governing party a ten-point lead over the Liberals. In Quebec, the needle did not move dramatically, with the Bloc still in first place (40%), and the two main federalist parties virtually even (21% for the Tories, 20% for the Grits).
Prediction-
Is their an agressive "Ground Game" chasing low numbers (turnout) for each riding and will it result in a tight race or will voters show an interest in their local candidates and show up?
If we have a historical low turnout the CPC may win 3/4 seats. Looking forward to the SPIN from every party.
Additional Sources for Specific Information on the By-Elections
Update: Why did the Liberals not understand the Premiers already picked their choice for PM?
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