Monday, November 16, 2009

Political Landscape Sea Change: Premiers have picked their "Winner" for 2010

"For the many Canadians who doubt that Stephen Harper has the potential to bring about trans-formative change to the country's fabric, it should be required reading." - Chantal Herbert Toronto Star November 16, 2009 The Good Bad and Ugly (on the New Citizenship Guide)


In 1993 some predicted Kim Campbell would lead the PC party to victory and the Liberals under Jean Chretien would fail. Many of us for various reasons left their traditional bases and voted for the Liberals or stayed home.

Many in Western Canada and rural ridings refused to continue to support the PC party and created their own political movement to take power back from Ottawa.

The result from 1993-2000 the Liberal Party was able to benefit and exploit the problems in the opposition parties to their political advantage. In 2000 the signs of dominance for the Liberal Party started a series of events beyond their control or understanding.


The sea change has already taken place, many from the opposition can't comprehend that reality. They will keep moving chess pieces and pretend they are still in the game. The next federal election will be just another reminder for some stuck in the 1990's during the Liberal's decade of power.

The By-elections on November 9, 2009 was a tactical display that showed whose party had a REAL ground game and was effective in getting their BASE to show up. The Liberals lost ground two riding in Quebec and BC. The only riding they saw an uptick in support was the riding held by Bill Casey. Some will like to blame Denis Coderre, but those two ridings in Quebec were both Bloc seats and the NDP and the CPC both made gains as the alternative.  The "fairytale" spun by friends of the Liberals becoming the federal alternative outside their island is now officially DEAD.

Reality Check:
The currentl Liberal Premier and the PM are working closely on helping Ontario through this global economic recession. Manufacturing in Ontario was hit as exports to the US fell dramatically.

The introduction of the HST, reductions in Corporate and Business Tax by the Provincial Liberals appear to be inline with the Federal Government of creating an improved investment conditions for outside investment.

The single regulator, additional 23 seats in the HOC, focused regional investments appears to have helped the Provincial Liberals in choosing the current government led by PM Stephen Harper.

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game a pick up of 10-20 more seats in Ontario.

Reality Check:

Jean Charest a Liberal Premier has been vocal and supportive of EAP, unhappy about the single regulator, will be unhappy about QC losing to Ontario

Stephen Harper now has two huge assets in Quebec: He made peace with the Mulroney clan, and he restored good relations with Premier Jean Charest's Liberals (who worked for Mr. Généreux, a Liberal himself).- Lysianne Gagnon Liberals' faint hope is that Tories slip. Globe & Mail November 13, 2009.

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game of a pick up of 2-6  rural seats in Quebec. (Charest/Mulroney giving permission for their political machine help again)

Reality Check:

Danny Williams has realized his ABC strategy of  had consequences. Why did the Federal Liberal MP's and NDP MP's fail to secure funding and projects for NFLD?

“If the Prime Minister reached out,” Williams told The Globe and Mail, “we would accept any kind of an olive branch.”
The feisty Premier is, however, still simmering over federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's stimulus budget. “While he was stimulating every other jurisdiction in the country,” Williams says, “he took away $1-billion to $1.5-billion. We got cooked. We got $140-million.”

But, he says, it's time to change. “I'm trying to get away from that anti-Harper mentality,” he says.
“I am saying we are here to work with the federal government at any point in time.” - Roy MacGregor Globe & Mail Peace Down East, November 15, 2009

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game of a pick up of 1-2 seats in Newfoundland. 

Those three provinces alone can give the CPC a large majority if the voters decide to show up and cast their ballots.

'We need immigrants'

"That's why we made it a confidence motion … and we appreciate the support of the Liberals," Harper added. Bill C-50- CBC News Opposition parties target Tories on immigration tactics March 31, 2008

Canada - Parties get sophisticated in bid for immigrant vote. Pundit's Guide on Jason Kenney efforts and here.

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