Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Incrementalism: 10 seats from a majority.

The Party of Props (Liberals) vs The Party of Action (CPC)

It is not difficult to understand how the CPC were able to "win" 50% of the seats in the current election (2/4). The CPC have slowly rebuilt a party that was formed by uniting two right of centre parties. (A valuable lesson learned: a party demostrating discipline) The merger ended the advantage by the Liberals to use the first past the post to split the vote and stay in power. The result was devasting to the Liberals. (A lesson they refuse to learn). The hunter had become the hunted. The Liberal Party of Canada natural governing party had become a Goliath of Canadian Politics believed David was incapable of delivering a deadly blow. (A fatal miscalculation that is still not understood)

In 2004 Paul Martin  intercine effectively pushed out the Chretien loyalists but retained a minority parliament with 37.6%. That minority was highly unstable compliments of the relationship with the NDP. In 2006 the remaining Chretien Liberals Martin remained divided returned to the Polls because their coalition partner refused to continue to back them without their additional demands being met. ( A valuable lesson the CPC learned and a mistake they have not repeated)

The CPC is a relatively new party and was able to provide an alternative in 2006 to the thirteen years of the Liberal government. The CPC have been very active in courting many groups. Those groups have different scales in priorities for supporting a political party.

A fatal mistake by the media, bloggers, party officials is to treat the voters as some large cohesive group with the same values and same triggers and they can be reached and moved through a concerted effort.

Where is the evidence of rolling out a six week campaign will work? How does it without a lead on a single file (ballot question) or a competitive advantage from loyalty/trust from those voting blocks? Those voting blocks take time to reach and build trust.

Are the CPC reaching out to voting blocks crafting specific niche policies? Who is trusted to manage the economy, environment, health file?

The Riding Association that returned Bill Casey returned back to the CPC and returned the riding. The Quebec rural riding had the Provincial Liberal, a star candidate, high profile Liberals combine for an effective ground game to deliver a riding in a Bloc "stronghold". The other Bloc stronghld was safely held and the NDP came in second easily beating the Liberals third place and CPC fourth place. In BC the NDP easily retained their seat. Some of the criticism I have read was the local candidate was kept under wraps. Does that mean the internal polling numbers demostrated it was not winnable and was not heavily invested with high profile candidates?

 The Liberals were not competitive or a serious contender in any of the four ridings. Any lessons or just more excuses? Are they doing the heavy lifting and reaching out to win back these groups they have lost?

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