Conservative Majority: Taxpayers Message

[1] Ekos Politics October 15, 2009 Tories Consolidate Lead http://www.ekospolitics.ca/

Angus Reid Strategies provided another marker that reinforced the Ekos Politics snapshot leading up to the rout of the Liberals in the four by elections a few weeks later. Angus was the most accurate pollster in predicting the results in the 40^th general election.

Angus snapshot pointed to the fact 40 per of decided voters would cast a ballot for a Conservative candidate in their riding if a federal election took place today. The Liberals placed a distant second at 26 per cent.

On the Economy and trust the Liberals did not make the case for replacing the incumbent in 2009. Half of Canadians (50%) are satisfied with the reaction of the federal government to the economic crisis. Forty-four per cent either completely or moderately trust the PM Stephen Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover.

Only 25% feel the same way about the Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. This is the second time the Conservatives hit the forty per cent threshold as the Liberals beat the election drums with the incredulous statement of Harper, your time is up threat

Are seventy-six questions on the Afghanistan prisoner treatment-transfer more pressing the our Economy and Jobs in December 2009?

A committee on the Afghanistan mission was hi-jacked to provide an opportunity for partisan positioning over the handling of captured prisoners. How many Canadians were being asked to subscribe without proof our government, civil servants, military were covering up war crimes?

Fast forward to another four by elections in 2010 did the Liberals or the left take any lessons from their failures in 2009? The Conservatives picked up another two seats including a long held Liberal riding just north of Toronto. The full court press failed and taxpayers rejected the Liberal brand.
 

Fantino, Taxpayers reject Liberals for Conservatives 

 Fantino is the celebrity choice. Many voters told the Star they feel comfortable with his name recognition, a plus for federal Conservatives, who could strip away this longtime Liberal riding and advance their march to the glittering Grit prize of Toronto.- Linda Diebel Toronto Star

We are now day four in a thirty-six day campaign with the opposition promising to spend more taxpayers money as if it will be a free lunch. Taxpayers have been firing the tax and spend Liberals in Europe, the United States, New Brunswick and most recently in Toronto with the election of Rob Ford as Mayor.

2011 Taxpayers Crush Liberal tax and spend brand

Kelly McParland wit on display:

For Toronto’s urban sophisticates, it was a wipe-out. Total repudiation. Worse than the time they ran out of well-oaked chardonnay at Vintages. What are they supposed to do now, move to Calgary? Buy a leaf blower, for Chrissake? Any day now they’ll be erecting barriers at Pusateri’s, checking IDs. No one gets in without a credit card from Home Depot.

Wearily they munched their almond biscottis and totted up the devastation. Someone would have to contact the holistic, non-profit communal bike-sharing project and warn them the grand opening, scheduled for January, would be delayed.- National Post

His message was widely panned by the traditional media outlets and the taxpayers ended the debate with eight minutes after the ballots were counted. Are the media outlets based in Toronto and Ottawa out of touch with the taxpayers? We already can see the opposition politicans are for returning to the polls for a fourth time in seven years. Why are the Liberals still not listening to the taxpayer?

Taxpayers across Canada are going to show up will Ignatieff's seat be in play?

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• Harper's Tories to face off against Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition in early May (russ-campbell.blogspot.com)
• Liberals 23% revisiting new historic low: Liberal Strategy? (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• "THAT guy" at work everyone hates - Michael Ignatieff (searchingforliberty.blogspot.com)

Book the Plane already: Ontario turns Blue!

Campaigns matter but only Ekos Research analysis decided the Bev Oda story might have legs on the CBC. Every other pollster has been clear the Liberals are tanking leading up to the budget vote. Ontario has crushed the Liberals dreams in Toronto by sending Rob Ford and  the GTA appears to be prepared to spank Dalton and Ignatieff into the dustbin of history. The track record of mismanagement and reckless social policy engineering is coming home to roost.

Regional Charts here

A Wilfrid Laurier study suggests Stephen Harper's Conservative government is within reach of a majority if an election were held now. An analysis by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy shows the Conservatives would win 152 seats if the election were held today. That’s just three short of a majority.

Their last poll had the Conservatives with a six point lead and a statistical tie in Ontario. Does the Toronto Star refer to a poll in November 2010 to dampen the momentum of the massive swing in Ontario of 13 points in five weeks? A little bait and switch? The mass media buy from the widely funded Conservatives is working.

Angus was the most accurate in the general election October 14, 2008. Everyone under polled the CPC.

The biggest change has come in Ontario, where the 13-point Tory lead observed in December has become a statistical tie (Conservatives 38%, Liberals 36%) -January 12, 2011 Angus Reid 

The Conservatives have more donors than all of the opposition parties combined. The opposition parties have failed to provide Canadians with a reason to donate and close the gap. The message of a stable government led by our PM Stephen Harper vs Coalition has resonated. Sorry Jack those cabinet seats are fading fast. Ignatieff will have to decide if co-opting the NDP policies are responsible for his dismal standings. Their is always the option of another tour and a swing to the right pretending your are a centrist.

The Conservatives are at 39 per cent, the Liberals are at 26 per cent, the NDP is at 18 per cent and the Green Party is at 6 per cent, according to the latest polling by Angus Reid Public Opinion.

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are knocking on the door of an elusive majority, helped in part by the growing support of Ontario voters, an exclusive Star poll of more than 6,000 Canadians reveals.
For the Conservatives it’s all good news in Ontario — a key battleground in the next election — where they enjoy a 13-point lead over the Liberals. That’s up five points from November.
The Conservatives’ road to a majority runs right through Ontario. The party is fighting hard to build on past gains in the 905 region, break into the Liberal bastion of Toronto and win seats in the corridor stretching to Windsor.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois holds a significant lead with 39 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for the Conservatives, 21 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the NDP.
Mukerji cautioned not to put too much stock in claims the Conservatives are badly wounded in Quebec, suggesting they are likely to retain the 11 seats they hold there now.
In Newfoundland, the Conservatives have bounced back from the 2008 election, when they faced the ire of then-premier Danny Williams who actively campaigned against the Tories. The party now stands at 42 per cent in the polls, up 28 per cent from the 2008 vote. That compares with the Liberals, which are down 11 points to 36 per cent, and the NDP, which is down 13 points to 21 per cent. - Conservative Majority vs Fringe Party Coalition

The MSM is free to engage in pushing the Bev Oda decision to defund Kairos. They are free to gloat about the difficulty in evacuating Canadians from Libya. They are free to recite the talking points from the war rooms of opposition parties masquerading as news. It has stopped working. Canadians can't afford the tax and spend Liberal NDP promises of the "free lunch". The media pundits have lost control of the narrative in shaping public opinion. Your moral compass is bankrupt and taxpayers are not interested in your priorities. If you want it, go fund it yourself with your own money.

It is time for the usual suspects in the MSM to grow up and return to a balanced role in reporting the news. Leave your personal opinions at the door.

Summer is Over: Conservatives move to 8 Point Lead

 

Angus Reid Poll here . The Liberals, NDP and Bloc are matching their vote share from the last federal election, while the Tories are three points behind. The biggest gainers are the Greens, who now stand four points ahead of their 2008 nationwide total.

We see this pattern with the media and opposition fill the news with negative stories. We know summer ends when the "horse race" becomes replaced with a three, five or ten point lead by the Conservatives. Last summer Ignatieff may have suffered from the Napoleon complex with declaring "Time Is Up".

In 2010 Ignatieff spent his summer visiting the recently lost, winnable and Liberal held ridings. To qualify they had to be able generate small crowds for photo ops. Ignatieff was able to provide stimulus with multiple purchases of plaid shirts and Tim Horton's pit stops. Thanks Mike!

No Snacks For You!

Parliament is now back in session and the narratives is to attack the Conservatives on the removal of threat of fines on the Census, spending of the G20, the investment in the military purchase of F35's, upgrades to  expand our prisons and continuing with the tax cuts as outlined in the two year plan (EAP).  Kevin Page preliminary report did not give them the ammunition to attack, so they have decided to attack the spending on snacks by the RCMP on chips, glow sticks and bug spray. There is speculation the report from Sheila Fraser will also not provide a smoking gun regarding the spending of the Economic Action Plan.

The opposition are stuck with recycling old attack lines to fill question period. The opposition parties have not presented a credible plan on what they would do differently going forward including where to cut spending. The Liberals will engineer at least thirty MPs will skip a votes to defeat the Conservative agenda. (AGAIN)

The balance sheet and membership problems of the Liberal Party are not resolved, they suffered a dramatic loss in 2010 vs 2009. I don't believe they are capable of putting together a coherent national campaign with television. Ignatieff won't be in Parliament to provide an easy target for hypocrisy, he will continue to visit ridings to drum up support, find candidates and repair the heavy losses in financial donations.

Is their any wonder why Liberals find themselves at their lowest level of popular level of support since confederation a third time in two years?  

 

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Layton: You have splaining to do!

The Liberals are out of touch with many parts of Canada. The Democrats made a tactical decision to trade the rural seats for a few close urban seats. On August 30, 2010 Brad Lavigne was smug about his party allowing a free vote for his MPs.
Brad not so smug today?

Who is supreme?  Iggy asked us that once.  Today the Coalition Party was supreme.  They lorded their power over the people and their government in a disgusting move to keep the Gun Registry.

The private members bill was designed to give every MP an opportunity to represent their constituents and to stop punishing the lawful owners of long guns with a wasteful ineffective policy imposed by the Liberal majority in 1995.

Long Gun Registry: Future Coalition Map

The majority of people in Canada think that the Canadian Firearms Registry has failed, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion released by the Toronto Star. 46 per cent of respondents say this program has been unsuccessful in preventing crime, and an additional 32 per cent say it has been ineffectual.

Candice Hoeppner is a non gun owner, she has been a driving force in this campaign. Her interview illustrates why Canadians will vote out the elitist leaders in Toronto.

Jack Layton decided he needed half of his safest seats that voted to scrap the Long Gun Registry needed to betray their promises to their local constituents in order to save this Liberal boondoggle or his recent Liberal gains in urban ridings? (Voters will decide who is playing wedge politics)

Ignatieff  needed to demonstrate his leadership, party discipline by whipping the MPs to protect the legacy of the Chretien Liberals.  They are using it as a wedge issue with women groups, raise funds and denigrate lawful long gun owners.
The media has played the emotional card, CBC runs the NRA influence and media outlets run with fake numbers  to protect the LGR.

1. Why did the media NOT consult the aboriginals on their compliance with long gun registry?
2. Why did the media ignore the scathing auditor general report for a story on a Global organization from a decade ago? 
3. Why has the media failed to hold opposition MPs accountable for the misleading the public on the four million dollar annual cost?

Canadians will take back Canada from the elitists and the mainstream media puppets for failing us again. Bet on it!

 

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Polling For Cheerleaders

We have no Federal Campaign, the media likes to spin a fairytale about some mythical horse race and numbers tightening up every few months.

I have often commented comparing different polling results from different pollsters is not fair or balanced in a thirty second soundbite on television.

I have a post on Environics from June here
 
Here are three bloggers that look at polling.


Canadian Election Watch the regional breakdown is pretty wild: apparently, the Tories lead Ontario by 10% (when Ipsos, Nanos and EKOS just told us the Grits lead there by 8%, 7% and 6.6% respectively), and the Liberals are at 33% in Québec (just 5% behind the Bloc), even though most other pollsters put them in the low 20s.
or Democratic Space , All Politics is Local. They are also partisan but have interesting comments from time to time.
 

What is very funny is how each camp spins the favourable polling results to a significant shift that is the result of "x".

Check the balance sheet of every political party. How many people are attending their events. Is the membership growing?

Environics Sept 2010

Our Canadian media is very predictable, they repeat the talking points issued by political insiders of  each party. How did Environics do in measuring the 2008 General Federal election?

Whose team are you cheer leading for? 

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Liberal Party Problems Are Self Inflicted

The Liberal Party has been in trouble for many years. The Angus Poll found the "rabid" Liberals were deluded about their party's strength.

The realization that the framing of Iggy leadership since January is sticking and his numbers are sinking fast.

The majority are not paying attention to the inside baseball stuff from Ottawa. What we are picking up is the pattern from the Liberals threatening another election every few weeks for the last three years.

The Perfect Storm this Fall?

Ontario Liberals losing support over scandals on the eHealth File. Check
Federal Liberals terrified to talk Vision or Policy. Check
Economy on slow shaky recovery. Check
Toronto Mayor Socialist Union Cave in. Check
MSM assisting in the framing of Just Visiting by asking where is Waldo and his policy and why an election. Check

Only Rabid Liberals that are deluded think they are in a strong bargaining position.(The June Meltdown by Hamlet was Harper's loss)

The Liberals have boxed themselves in by making demands that can not be solved in the SHORT TERM.

a) You need a groundswell of support to change the existing government
b) You need a reason to vote for the Liberal leader.

The Liberals have failed to make a case for either A or B.

The Willie Wiarton peek-a-boo Liberal leader has boxed himself in and appears to have no other option now but to show he has a "spine".

If he does not get concessions and backs down again, Dion II framing is complete. 

This was written 52 weeks ago and nothing has changed from the strategists within the Liberal Party. -Cancel the Employment Insurance negotiations; they are a waste of time

How did the Liberals lose the Canadian Voter: Mistake # 2

The Liberals’ failure to own a single major issue in 2008 underlines just how serious the party’s situation has become. 

 Prime Minister Stephen Harper is not the most popular leader but people want him on the job when Canada faces serious challenges, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.- August 12, 2010

Harper has the edge on most policy matters, with at least three-in-ten respondents seeing the current prime minister as the best person to lead Canada in the event of a terrorist attack (37%), to negotiate with United States President Barack Obama on trade and security issues (36%), to deal with Russia on matters of Arctic sovereignty (35%) and to be in charge if there is another sovereignty referendum in Quebec (31%). - Results here. 

Angus 2008

What were the defining issues in 2008 that the Liberals were able to capture the hearts and minds of voters? What issues did they suggest were the most important to Canada and needed their hand at the helm to fix?

Angus 2009

 

 

What were the defining issues in 2009 that the Liberals were able to capture the hearts and minds of voters? What issues did they suggest were the most important to Canada and needed their hand at the helm to fix?

Angus March 2, 2010-  August 12, 2010

What were the defining issues in 2010 that the Liberals were able to capture the hearts and minds of voters? What issues did they suggest were the most important to Canada and needed their hand at the helm to fix?

The Liberal Party has failed to capture any issue and make it their own.

Ignatieff is seen as the brainier of all, with Canadians picking him over the others to play in their trivia quiz team (26%), and as the best person to recommend a book to read (22%).  Are not essential PM traits.

Being a Liberal, being anti-Conservative messaging is not sufficient to win 24 Sussex any longer. You must stand up for something and define what and who you are.

I have blogged for a few months of the danger of crying wolf and going negative only and the Liberals have turned off a large number of voters by refusing to offer a constructive dialogue and a responsible opposition in parliament.

 

 

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Pollsters April 2010 Round Up

Here is a summary of the Polls April 2010

• Angus Reid Public Opinion here
• Leger here.
• Ekos Research here.
• Ispos Reid here.
• Harris-Decima Research here.

Democratic Space has an interesting site that includes seat projections here.
A partisan Liberal blogger that I visit is here and include a May projection update.
Note: The best way to measure a trend is to examine each pollster on an individual basis, their design and look for potential for flaws of bias. The table I provided should NOT be used to draw any conclusions. If you examine the second line graph with Harris-Decima a trend line can be applied.
Again I don't recommend in over analyzing a Poll in a bubble. Look at the financial health of each party as it is estimated to cost nearly $ 20 million to run a national campaign, the leader is he visiting new ridings or old ridings trying to shore up or save the furniture. Campaigns matter.
 Nik Nanos here.

Harris-Decima here

Liberal Party of Canada: Running out of Time Angus Poll April 2010

In a month that featured the resignation of Minister of State for Status of Women Helena Guergis, increased attention into the activities of former Conservative MP Rahim Jaffer, and the ruling made by Speaker of the House Peter Milliken on the Afghan detainee issue, the three main parties did not go through any significant shift.-Angus Poll April 2010 here.

In 2008 Angus Reid Global was the most accurate Pollster in their predictions in popular vote.

Source Canada News Desk here. (June 2009 - March 2010)

In the last twelve months the Liberal Party of Canada has only polled above thirty per cent four times according the most accurate pollster in the 2008. What is required for the Liberal Party of Canada to be rejected by over seventy per cent of the population?

April 29, 2010 Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll: It's The Economy Stupid
April 24, 2010 Angus Reid Poll illustrating how Quebec is out of touch with rest of Canada on N.A.T.O and our mission.

The mainstream media does not seem to be interested in reporting those findings, apparently the Ottawa-Toronto groupthink knows better.

Angus Reid Public Opinion Poll: It's The Economy Stupid

How much do you trust each of the following people to do the right thing to help the economy? The clear winner on the economy is the PM. Only 2% polled completely trust the leader of the Liberal Party to do the right thing. (Ouch) The Poll is here. A graph is below on that question.

Canadian confidence in the economy, personal finance have steadily increased. The opposition have been avoiding questions on the economy for months. The government is resorting to have their own members ask the economic questions to the Minister of Finance. If you tuned into Question Period you would think Canada is in serious financial difficulty and Sudbury, Ontario is the capital of Canada.

The opposition are busy perfecting their talking points: "culture of deciet" and "extremist religious idealogy". Although they lost G.W. B. they like to mention him frequently.

Angus bias or conflicts (did not find any through Google) Best to do your research as well. More information here.

The winner, by far and away, is Angus Reid Strategies. Congratulations to Hamish Marshall and the Angus Reid Strategies research team for clearly having the most accurate poll predicting the election result.Angus Reid was the most accurate. (BC Election 2009)

Angus was also the most accurate on the last Federal Elections October14, 2008.


Related Posts on Angus

Why do Politicians in Ottawa prefer to play games with the electorate?

Strategic Counsel Finished 7th in Polling General Election 2008