Tuesday, September 08, 2009

Why do Politicians in Ottawa prefer to play games with the electorate?

 Why do Politicians prefer to play games with the electorate? Is this posturing to be taken seriously or is this an attempt by the Liberals to push the NDP and Bloc to act more responsibly?

A very small number of people believe Canadians are interested in going to the Polls again. Is the posturing by the leaders of each political party acting in the best interest of their party? Are they interested in facing the voters or are they trying to re-cast their role in the upcoming parliament?

I suspect the political posturing is a key element in the latest election threat. The CPC have been in power for over 1300 days. Their track record was judged on October 14, 2008 and resulted in a larger mandate falling short of a majority 12 seats.

Excluding Quebec, the rest of Canada rewarded the Government with 57% of the seats. In Quebec all three Federal Parties won 24/75 seats against a regional protest party interested in leaving Canada.

Some leaders in the opposition and punditry have suggested the decision by the Francophone vote to support the Bloc is a repudiation of the current government. Since the inception of the Bloc have the Liberals won a majority of seats in Quebec? (October 2008 CPC 9, LIB 14, NDP 1)

Six weeks after returning with a larger mandate the Government introduced the Economic Update and the opposition decided the government became unfit to govern and would be replaced by a Coalition with the Liberals,NDP being supported with Bloc votes for 18 months.

One week before the House was to break for Christmas, the GG granted the PM a timeout (prorogue)  to present a new budget and keep the confidence of the House.

At the end of January 2009 the CPC maintained the confidence of the House with the support of the Liberal Party.

In Sudbury the Liberal Party leader announced he would no longer support the Government. For some Canadians including the Press the posturing has referred to this as "Ground Hog Day" or De Jevu.

In the meeting the Liberal leader denied the returning to normal has anything to do with the polling numbers.

Internal numbers leaked by the Liberals and the recent Poll by Strategic Counsel show potential seat gains for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP/Bloc.

Will the Bloc and NDP allow the posturing of the Liberal leader to affect their roles of opposing the government on every single Bill and voting non-confidence?

Will the Bloc and NDP change their posturing and decide to telegraph their "lines in the sand" to the government to avoid a no confidence motion to defeat the government. Will they join the Liberals in a no confidence motion at the earliest opportunity, win concessions  for votes or risk going to the Polls.

The timing of the Liberal announcement supported a boost of seats according to internal Polls. If the lead over the NDP and Bloc vanishes in the next three weeks will the Liberals follow? Will the Bloc or NDP blink if their numbers show a loss of seats?

Campaigns matter and this site has a great snapshot of preparedness and organization. It looks like the NDP, Greens, Bloc, Liberals are unprepared in nominations.

Money is very important. How do they rank (Party Finances)? Clearly the CPC are in a substantial lead. Some would argue the Liberals recent improvements make them more competitive.

The Conservative Party raised more money in 2007 than all the other political parties combined, according to data released by Elections Canada. The Conservatives earned 62% of the fundraising dollars, while the Liberal Party raised 18%.-March 2008

Do the CPC have the most to benefit from the repeating their narrative of not wanting an unecessary election in a fragile recovery? The CPC has been quick to sink any backroom deals or concessions for keeping confidence in the house.

If the opposition decide they no longer have confidence in the government, the PM will ask the GG to dissolve the Parliament.

Ballot Questions:

Handling the Economy

"Almost half of Canadians (47%) are satisfied with the way the federal government has handled the ongoing economic crisis, while 45 per cent are unhappy with their actions."-Angus Reid Sept 3, 2009

Voter Discontent

"32% support the opposition parties toppling the Conservative government; 57% are opposed"- Angus Reid Sept 3, 2009

In the next few weeks, the Polling will again be used in determining the posturing. Expect more internal leaks from the Liberal Party to discourage the NDP and Bloc to defeat the government.

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