Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Political Mistakes 101: Iggy gave Jack the "ball"

In Nov 2008 Canadians were presented an idea of a cooperative model by three opposition leaders. A central theme for this coalition was an opportunity for these voters to replace the existing government without returning back to the Polls. The numerical and timing advantage by the three opposition leaders were sufficient to wrest control. The rules exist to effect such a change.
The government needed to divide the united opposition and buy time. The government was successful in having the Governor General agreeing to close parliament one week earlier before the scheduled Christmas Break. The Government spent the time to provide a New Budget that included a substantial increase in funding for programs. The united opposition had lost their "timing advantage" window, but still had enough vote non-confidence against the government. The six week advantage has been replaced by fifteen weeks leading many to believe the GG would entertain the opportunity to return to the Polls.
The Liberal leader decided for various reasons his party might not benefit from returning to the Polls in  March 2009. The decision to not vote no-confidence against the government resulted in the adoption of EAP. The Liberal leader decided to allow the CPC to wear the recession by setting up Report Cards and putting the government of Prohabation. The three smaller opposition parties who were united in November 2008 to were now divided again.
In June 2009 the Liberal leader called a Press Conference and decided to deliver four ulimatiums for his continued support. The Polls were favourable and showed a potential for a small minority Liberal government. The next twenty four hours exposed the reluctance of the Liberal Party to withdraw their support of the government to visit the Polls.
Many in the MSM lost confidence in the Liberal leader declaring the termination of the honeymoon. The upwared momentum of the Polls had now stalled and the positive numbers for the leadership scores started to turn negative. A Nik Nanos Poll show a substantial negative trend in June 2009.
In Sudbury the Liberals held a summer caucus meeting and made another public proclamation.
“Stephen Harper leads a government that doesn’t care. We can do better and we will do better.”
The Liberals have now attempted to shift the burden of returning to the Polls on the NDP and Bloc parties. Will this new strategy benefit of hurt the Liberal party?
Many of us will consider this another strategic error on the part of the Liberal Party. In the next few weeks the media will now be following the two smaller parties giving them a bigger spot light just before we enter into a national campaign.
Will the experienced leaders of the NDP and Bloc capitalize on Liberal Party's decision to pass the ball on keeping this government afloat for the next few months?
Did the Polls react favourably to the Liberal Party leader when they voted in favour of supporting EAP? Why would the same polls not repeat the same pattern?

1 comment:

Ronald O'Dowd said...


I'm halfway there with you. No doubt that the Bloc will capitalize on perceived Liberal weakness but that will be marginal with the Bloc already gaining in Quebec.

As for Jack -- he'll be lucky if he can find a fig leaf that is large enough to represent his credibility level with the public, not to mention his own supporters.

Jack and the Pension Democrats are toast this election cycle. Sure, they will eventually bounce back but only under new leadership. Harper has really stuck it to them. Unfortunately for this Prime Minister, the Bloc is about to disengage and vote no-confidence in this government.