Tuesday, March 16, 2010

GOTV: Nik Nanos Deconstructing Connect The Dots

The NDP, CPC are getting their base out in elections. The dots, brackets show spikes in traditional support when it matters.

Straight lines from 2002 to March 9 2010 
Brackets capture actual weeks of campaigns
Dots reflect above of below their trend line

Connect the Dots: The Election Results explain why campaigns matter

"Get out the vote" (or "getting out the vote"; GOTV) are terms used to describe two categories of political activity, both aimed at increasing the number of votes cast in one or more elections.

Negative campaigning and voter suppression

The terminology reflects a distinction of GOTV from the complementary strategy of suppressing turnout among likely opposition voters. Political consultants are reputed to privately advise some candidates to "go negative" (attack an opponent), without any intent to sway voters toward them: this plan is to instead increase the number of eligible voters who fail to vote, because their tendency to believe "politics is inherently corrupt" has so recently been reinforced. Such turnout suppression can be advantageous where any combination of three conditions apply:
  1. The negative campaigning is targeted (by direct mail, telephone "push polls," or the like) on likely opposing voters, reducing the collateral damage to supporters morale.
  2. The side going negative has an advantage in its supporters being steadier voters than those of its opponent.
  3. The side going negative has an advantage in doing effective GOTV, so that its campaign workers can get a GOTV "antidote" to more supporters "poisoned" by the negative campaign, than the opposing campaign can of their own supporters. Wikipedia

An organization to be successful must be able to deliver results at the ballot box. Since 2000 the Liberal Party has been unable to beat their political opponents in strategies to GOTV during the campaigns. The other parties have benefitted with seats in Parliament as a result of having their campaigns successfully hold, increase, lose the least numbers of voters.

I have included a screen capture from Pundits Guide, the best Canadian non partisan Political site for drilling down data. The picture details forty-two seats that were close contests in October 14, 2008 General Election. If you like to look and examine details and what to expect in the next campaign this site is highly recommended.

No comments: