Nanos Poll: Conservative Lead Doubles in Ontario: 12%

Is the "W" for Ignatieff winning?

It is funny reading how a few media pundits provide spin about the drop in the leadership numbers of our PM  from last month. A drop would be significant if the gap was close, it's not. The gap is 43 points between our PM and Ignatieff. Ignatieff's score is only 39. Jack Layton has been in second place since Sept 2009 and has improved his LSI in comparison to Ignatieff. Dion also fared better in the two years he led the party.

Canadians believe political honesty should trump economic recovery as the main issue in the next election but — in a major blow to the Liberals — voters rank the Tories as the best party to deliver a government they can trust. -National Post

Nik Nanos Poll here

If Ontario is the key battleground for a Conservative breakthrough into majority territory why are the pundits they failing to report a double digit increase in Ontario from last month? The Conservative party of Canada has an eleven point lead against the Liberals nationally.

In the general elections results in October 2008 the Conservatives were able to secure a five point lead  in Ontario for the first time.

Which Liberal leader will be out of a job first?

The Liberals were behind 6.2% in the poll last month. The latest Nanos poll has the Liberals 12.3% behind the Conservatives in Ontario. Did any pundits talk about the drop for Ignatieff in Ontario or the doubling by the Conservatives? Michael Ignatieff, truly, is the George Costanza of Canadian Politics (keyboard beverage warning a funny photo-shop image of Iggy)

The news is just as bad for the provincial Liberals that are expected to lose in the fall. In another blow to the McGuinty regime, the pair were in a statistical dead heat when respondents were asked who they trusted most to manage the health-care and education files, traditionally safe Liberal ground. The Progressive Conservatives have a nine point lead.

The voters in Ontario are returning back to the Tory roots and the Liberals are going to be in a shock when the ballots are counted. The Federal Liberals were able to win one hundred seats in Ontario in 2000. They have been bleeding seats in every election to the Conservatives and NDP. They will be lucky if they can hold onto 30 seats in my opinion. I predict they will lose in the double digits in Ontario.

MSM Tabloid Fail: Ispsos Poll It's a 10 Point lead again!

It is a only a single Poll, and it is mistake to make predictions based on a single Poll or a series of Polls in a bubble.

Many Pundits did not predict the worst showing in popular support for the Liberals in 150 years on October 14, 2008. In November 2009 the CPC managed to gain two seats including one from a long held Bloc riding of sixteen years.

DemocraticSpace is an interesting site that has some projections about the new 338 parliament. For a detail breakdown of past election anothe site for the political junkie is Pundits' Guide.

Not a leader Part II, is starting to sink in for some in media as identified by the Polls.

Impressions of Ignatieff continues to decline since he assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. Michael Ignatieff’s current overall Leadership score (39.0 points) represents another 15.8 point drop in the past quarter of leadership tracking placing him behind both Stephen Harper (94.6 points) and New Democrat leader Jack Layton (41.2 points). -Nik Nanos

In case you're having trouble deciphering what that means, here it is: Nothing has changed in the 4+ years since the Tories were elected. Smackdown of the year - Kelly McParland