Jack Layton : Playing Smart Politics?

Political Smarts 101:

NDP Leader Jack Layton threw his weight behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper's move to prioritize the health of women and children, calling on all party leaders to make the upcoming session of Parliament the "Women and Children First" session of Parliament.

Canada holds the presidency of the G8 this year and Harper has pledged to make it his mission to highlight the health issues facing women and children in developing countries when the group meets in Muskoka this summer.
"I'm going to take Mr. Harper at his word and encourage this initiative to move women and children to the top of the G8 agenda when those meetings happen," Layton said.- PETER ZIMONJIC, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU, The Intelligencer

Contrast this latest position with below.

September 2008 - Mr. Layton's aggressive strategy carries considerable risks. The more he attacks Mr. Harper, the more he feeds the notion that "progressive" voters should get together to block a decisive Conservative victory. If the NDP has not surpassed the Liberals in the polls by the end of the campaign, it could be vulnerable to a repeat of 2004, when swing voters on the left responded to Liberal appeals to come over to their side. - Tom Flanagan

Budget Fallout 2009

Listen for the warning to the Liberals from the NDP and Bloc in not giving up their "gains". Why would the strategists allow an election on the timetable of the Liberals if the seats are at the expense of the Bloc or NDP?

May 2009- As with so much in politics, morality disappears like a fog when survival is at stake.  All parties and their leaders have done it in the past, but for right now it’s Jack Layton’s turn and it isn’t pretty. - Glen Pearson

September 2009 - Michael Ignatieff is a winner because his bluff paid off. The Liberals are now free to vote against the government on every confidence motion. They have succeeded in shifting the burden of determining the fate of the government to the two other opposition parties. While the Liberals may be the major victors in this week's brawl, that doesn't reverse the remarkable shrinkage Ignatieff's stature has undergone over the past year. Once thought of as a sparkling intellectual, a second Pierre Trudeau, the Liberal leader bumbled his way into and out of the coalition, gave his support to the Harper government in return for a few report cards, and spent the summer who knows where. -Jack and Gilles went up the hill

September 2009 -Ignatieff hasn't thought this fairy tale through -I have not even mentioned to this point the fact that the Liberals would need the support of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to force this election. I have not mentioned it because the last time “Jack and Gilles” got together to form a team, they predictably did not make it up the Hill. So to assume this dream team will band together again now and win over the Canadian public is, quite frankly, a fairy tale.- Steve Patterson

Jack has been in politics for a very long time and has been positioning the NDP as the "cooperative" partner for years. Has the NDP have suffered their worst seat counts when progressives voted for the Liberal majority? If the NDP are to grow as a credible alternative to the government, they need to counter their natural allies. The Allies are Bloc, Liberals and Green voters. Can the NDP build upon 2008 and poach more progressive voters from the left of centre parties by cooperating with the CPC?

The Liberals have engaged in asking for the "progressive voters" in several campaigns. They are going to repeat the same narrative in the next campaign to stop the CPC majority. The Liberals attacked the NDP and Bloc when they did NOT support the no-confidence motion by the Liberals in September 2009. Anyone remember the Jack & Gilles jokes by the Liberals?

How will the NDP position themselves for the next election to hold their gains against their "natural allies" in large urban centres,  Quebec and rural communities? Are the NDP playing smart politics in not following the Liberals who took a public pro-abortion stance for aiding the third world countries in opposition to the announcement made by our government for the upcoming G8- G20 meetings?

A winning tactic on several occasions, deployed by strategists within the CPC is to allow the opposition just enough rope to twist themselves in knots and ultimately hang themselves.

Has Jack Layton evolved from checkers to chess in strategy? Is Jack providing our PM with just enough rope on the international stage on Women's Issues? Time will tell.

Some of us, cynical bloggers will suggest the finances, nominations and his personal health are the factors in giving the current government breathing space to shine on the international stage. My observation, a few strategist within the NDP have allowed the Liberals to take the lead with photo contests and publicity stunts for a smarter politics in 2009 after the NDP summer convention.

Jai Ho: Prime Minister Stephen Harper!

Prime Minister Stephen Harper is tapping into "Bollywood"
Tapping into his retail politics of targeting the visible minority vote. Job well done!

It is no secret Jason Kenney has been working for years helping transform and win the ethnic vote. This is simply another example of working and building on the coalition of many groups towards a majority in 2010-2011.

Harper towers over Obama on cover of Chinese national paper

  ...in the place of honour, however, is a “big” picture of Stephen Harper chatting to Chinese President Hu Jintao. 

 

http://www.canada.com/business/Harper+towers+over+Obama+cover+Chinese+national+paper/2226733/story.html

Is this a slight to Obama depicted below the fold?

Compare this to the Liberals Ruby Dhalla tries to block sales of a DVD. What are they doing to court the ethnic communities?

Political Landscape Sea Change: Premiers have picked their "Winner" for 2010

"For the many Canadians who doubt that Stephen Harper has the potential to bring about trans-formative change to the country's fabric, it should be required reading." - Chantal Herbert Toronto Star November 16, 2009 The Good Bad and Ugly (on the New Citizenship Guide)

Background

In 1993 some predicted Kim Campbell would lead the PC party to victory and the Liberals under Jean Chretien would fail. Many of us for various reasons left their traditional bases and voted for the Liberals or stayed home.

Many in Western Canada and rural ridings refused to continue to support the PC party and created their own political movement to take power back from Ottawa.

The result from 1993-2000 the Liberal Party was able to benefit and exploit the problems in the opposition parties to their political advantage. In 2000 the signs of dominance for the Liberal Party started a series of events beyond their control or understanding.

2006-2009

The sea change has already taken place, many from the opposition can't comprehend that reality. They will keep moving chess pieces and pretend they are still in the game. The next federal election will be just another reminder for some stuck in the 1990's during the Liberal's decade of power.

 

The By-elections on November 9, 2009 was a tactical display that showed whose party had a REAL ground game and was effective in getting their BASE to show up. The Liberals lost ground two riding in Quebec and BC. The only riding they saw an uptick in support was the riding held by Bill Casey. Some will like to blame Denis Coderre, but those two ridings in Quebec were both Bloc seats and the NDP and the CPC both made gains as the alternative.  The "fairytale" spun by friends of the Liberals becoming the federal alternative outside their island is now officially DEAD.

 

Reality Check:

Ontario

The currentl Liberal Premier and the PM are working closely on helping Ontario through this global economic recession. Manufacturing in Ontario was hit as exports to the US fell dramatically.

The introduction of the HST, reductions in Corporate and Business Tax by the Provincial Liberals appear to be inline with the Federal Government of creating an improved investment conditions for outside investment.

The single regulator, additional 23 seats in the HOC, focused regional investments appears to have helped the Provincial Liberals in choosing the current government led by PM Stephen Harper.

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game a pick up of 10-20 more seats in Ontario.

Reality Check:
Quebec

Jean Charest a Liberal Premier has been vocal and supportive of EAP, unhappy about the single regulator, will be unhappy about QC losing to Ontario

Stephen Harper now has two huge assets in Quebec: He made peace with the Mulroney clan, and he restored good relations with Premier Jean Charest's Liberals (who worked for Mr. Généreux, a Liberal himself).- Lysianne Gagnon Liberals' faint hope is that Tories slip. Globe & Mail November 13, 2009.

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game of a pick up of 2-6  rural seats in Quebec. (Charest/Mulroney giving permission for their political machine help again)

Reality Check:
Newfoundland

Danny Williams has realized his ABC strategy of  had consequences. Why did the Federal Liberal MP's and NDP MP's fail to secure funding and projects for NFLD?

“If the Prime Minister reached out,” Williams told The Globe and Mail, “we would accept any kind of an olive branch.”
The feisty Premier is, however, still simmering over federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's stimulus budget. “While he was stimulating every other jurisdiction in the country,” Williams says, “he took away $1-billion to $1.5-billion. We got cooked. We got $140-million.”


But, he says, it's time to change. “I'm trying to get away from that anti-Harper mentality,” he says.
“I am saying we are here to work with the federal government at any point in time.” - Roy MacGregor Globe & Mail Peace Down East, November 15, 2009

It is realistic to imagine with a good campaign and ground game of a pick up of 1-2 seats in Newfoundland. 

Those three provinces alone can give the CPC a large majority if the voters decide to show up and cast their ballots.

'We need immigrants'

"That's why we made it a confidence motion … and we appreciate the support of the Liberals," Harper added. Bill C-50- CBC News Opposition parties target Tories on immigration tactics March 31, 2008

Canada - Parties get sophisticated in bid for immigrant vote. Pundit's Guide on Jason Kenney efforts and here.