Quebec vs Ontario: Liberal Graveyard?

Is Quebec ready to join the rest of Canada at the federal table? Some high profile Quebec citizens think so. The Separatist-Bloc have had an interesting run with dominating Federal Quebec politics starting with the Mulroney-Bouchard fallout in 1993. Will the newest movement of conservatism in Quebec be able to help the Federal conservatives?

If the voters in are ready to punish the Charest Liberal's; will the Federal Liberals in Quebec  be punished if they face the voters before the Charest government triggers an election?

Liberal-NDP coalition in Quebec?

At 42 per cent, the combined Liberal/NDP score just about matches the Liberal result in Quebec in the last Chrétien campaign in 2000. Back then the NDP barely managed to win 2 per cent of the province’s popular vote.-Liberals, NDP deluding themselves in Quebec

Ontario has been the game changer in my opinion not Quebec in the last four general election cycles. The West, Atlantic Canada and Quebec have been consistent along their party lines. The Pundit's Guide has a detailed analysis of Quebec voters here. The Federal Liberals have given back sixty-two seats in Ontario to the Conservatives and NDP since 2000. The Separatist Bloc are not a factor in the largest province that hold one hundred and six seats. If the Democratic reform is passed without changes Ontario stands to gain another eighteen seats.

 

Is it realistic for Quebec voters to expect more friendly policies without a larger presence at the cabinet table? Ontario alone sends fifty-one Conservatives to sit on the Federal Government side. Quebec  with seventy five seats, the second largest province sent  ten Conservatives to Ottawa. If Quebec wants a larger role in Ottawa they need to send at least twenty five percent of their MP's to the side of the governing party.  Are Quebec voters capable of sending twenty Conservatives to Ottawa in the next general election. No one thinks so.

HST flip flops, G20 criticism,  Dalton's Cabinet-poaching

Ontario is the battleground and it appears Ignatieff has a strained relationship with the Premier Dalton McGuinty His brother David McGuinty is the house leader for the Federal Liberal Party of Canada in Ottawa. How will this affect the family and the cooperation of Liberals Federally-Provincially in the upcoming elections? Ontario is slated for October 2011. Will the provincial Liberals risk  draining their volunteers, by deploying their team to help their Federal cousins if an election is triggered this summer?

Is Ontario capable of going from fifty-one to seventy-one Conservatives? After the sweeping  victory by Rob Ford in Toronto and the win in Vaughan of Julian Fantino it is more likely than a shift in Quebec.

These issues are not top of mind nationally but may impact the local campaign in Ontario. Jobs, the economy and who do the voters trust may be the most important factor in determining how big the sweep of the Liberals from official opposition to third or fourth party status. Will Dion get the last laugh?

1. HST flip flop by Ignatieff
2. Criticism of G20 policing in Toronto
3. Voluntary or requested resignation of Labour Minister Peter Fonseca

Ignatieff is on an European vacation and has promised once again to not support the Conservative agenda. He has done this since May 2009. Clearly Ignatieff is not listening to his advisers or taking their advice in keeping his powder dry. It is a mistake to warn in advance your intention if you are going to roll over again and be unprepared to fight an election. Ignatieff is a political rookie and it is showing in his communication.

Jack Layton : Playing Smart Politics?

Political Smarts 101:

NDP Leader Jack Layton threw his weight behind Prime Minister Stephen Harper's move to prioritize the health of women and children, calling on all party leaders to make the upcoming session of Parliament the "Women and Children First" session of Parliament.

Canada holds the presidency of the G8 this year and Harper has pledged to make it his mission to highlight the health issues facing women and children in developing countries when the group meets in Muskoka this summer.
"I'm going to take Mr. Harper at his word and encourage this initiative to move women and children to the top of the G8 agenda when those meetings happen," Layton said.- PETER ZIMONJIC, PARLIAMENTARY BUREAU, The Intelligencer

Contrast this latest position with below.

September 2008 - Mr. Layton's aggressive strategy carries considerable risks. The more he attacks Mr. Harper, the more he feeds the notion that "progressive" voters should get together to block a decisive Conservative victory. If the NDP has not surpassed the Liberals in the polls by the end of the campaign, it could be vulnerable to a repeat of 2004, when swing voters on the left responded to Liberal appeals to come over to their side. - Tom Flanagan

Budget Fallout 2009

Listen for the warning to the Liberals from the NDP and Bloc in not giving up their "gains". Why would the strategists allow an election on the timetable of the Liberals if the seats are at the expense of the Bloc or NDP?

May 2009- As with so much in politics, morality disappears like a fog when survival is at stake.  All parties and their leaders have done it in the past, but for right now it’s Jack Layton’s turn and it isn’t pretty. - Glen Pearson

September 2009 - Michael Ignatieff is a winner because his bluff paid off. The Liberals are now free to vote against the government on every confidence motion. They have succeeded in shifting the burden of determining the fate of the government to the two other opposition parties. While the Liberals may be the major victors in this week's brawl, that doesn't reverse the remarkable shrinkage Ignatieff's stature has undergone over the past year. Once thought of as a sparkling intellectual, a second Pierre Trudeau, the Liberal leader bumbled his way into and out of the coalition, gave his support to the Harper government in return for a few report cards, and spent the summer who knows where. -Jack and Gilles went up the hill

September 2009 -Ignatieff hasn't thought this fairy tale through -I have not even mentioned to this point the fact that the Liberals would need the support of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois to force this election. I have not mentioned it because the last time “Jack and Gilles” got together to form a team, they predictably did not make it up the Hill. So to assume this dream team will band together again now and win over the Canadian public is, quite frankly, a fairy tale.- Steve Patterson

Jack has been in politics for a very long time and has been positioning the NDP as the "cooperative" partner for years. Has the NDP have suffered their worst seat counts when progressives voted for the Liberal majority? If the NDP are to grow as a credible alternative to the government, they need to counter their natural allies. The Allies are Bloc, Liberals and Green voters. Can the NDP build upon 2008 and poach more progressive voters from the left of centre parties by cooperating with the CPC?

The Liberals have engaged in asking for the "progressive voters" in several campaigns. They are going to repeat the same narrative in the next campaign to stop the CPC majority. The Liberals attacked the NDP and Bloc when they did NOT support the no-confidence motion by the Liberals in September 2009. Anyone remember the Jack & Gilles jokes by the Liberals?

How will the NDP position themselves for the next election to hold their gains against their "natural allies" in large urban centres,  Quebec and rural communities? Are the NDP playing smart politics in not following the Liberals who took a public pro-abortion stance for aiding the third world countries in opposition to the announcement made by our government for the upcoming G8- G20 meetings?

A winning tactic on several occasions, deployed by strategists within the CPC is to allow the opposition just enough rope to twist themselves in knots and ultimately hang themselves.

Has Jack Layton evolved from checkers to chess in strategy? Is Jack providing our PM with just enough rope on the international stage on Women's Issues? Time will tell.

Some of us, cynical bloggers will suggest the finances, nominations and his personal health are the factors in giving the current government breathing space to shine on the international stage. My observation, a few strategist within the NDP have allowed the Liberals to take the lead with photo contests and publicity stunts for a smarter politics in 2009 after the NDP summer convention.