Ignatieff Vision: Two Party Race

After losing two of three by elections on November 29, 2010 Ignatieff has decided “The next election is shaping up as a clear, two-way choice”.  (Stop laughing, its true)

Attacking human smuggling has been a consistent Conservative theme since the last boat arrived off the coast of BC. Jason Kenney is insisting that this bill will go forward, regardless of the fact that it might be defeated. Kenney is a very smart operator. He has spent the last few years working our various new Canadian communities. He better than anyone else in the government, knows best how these communities will respond if it comes down to an election on this issue.- Keith Beardsley

If the Government makes Bill C-49 a confidence matter ,which political party is most likely to get punished at the polls?

“Canadians are still very concerned about this country being targeted by smuggling syndicates, by the systematic abuse of the fairness and integrity of our immigration system by these smuggling syndicates and frankly their customers,” Mr. Kenney.

Globe & Mail Poll October 24, 2010

Is this a trap for Conservative government to pull the plug, does Ignatieff believe his own hype that the NDP won't recover their support in a General election? The same newspaper that polled 80% in favour of punishing Canadians with fines. This is the same parliament that votes to pass the CPC agenda for the last five years but complain they don't like the policies.

• 209 votes with CPC+Liberals on Afghanistan training against Bloc+NDP
• 170 votes with CPC+Bloc on F35 Jets against Lib+NDP

Has the coalition leadership finally outmaneuvered itself?

Related articles

• Shellacking on Hold: 42% vote for CPC (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Liberals won't support human smuggling legislation (ctv.ca)
• Leaders spin byelection results in opposite directions (canada.com)
• Next election is a two-way race: Ignatieff (thestar.com)
• Congratulations Michael Ignatieff, You are now Number 1! (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)
• Tories win and NDP loose big in last night's by-elections (russ-campbell.blogspot.com)
• Ignatieff 07 not 007 (canadiansense.blogspot.com)

Shellacking on Hold: 42% vote for CPC

Conservatives are 5/7 caption is wrong: 71% victory in by elections since 2006

Incumbents are punished is the rule of thumb when voters are angry. In the US the democrats have seen a historic sweep not repeated since 1938. In New Brunswick it was the first time in history a first term incumbent was not returned. Large parts of our Liberal media in Canada are unable to grasp the concept that the Conservative Party of Canada is growing and the coalition of the left is imploding.

The turnout of thirty per cent on Monday reflects voters are not engaged, worried about the direction of the country, and government. Campaigns matter. The Conservative won two of three races for 66% success last night. In 2008 they won two of four for 50% taking a long held seat from the Bloc.

Vaughan had the highest turn out with 32%.  Big Red Tent Folded.

I don't think the opposition leaders should be bragging after the results last night. In 2008 they were soundly defeated in a general election. Liberals suffered worst P.O.P. in 150 years. In the two years since the general election we have had seven contests to punish the incumbent Conservatives for being "mean-spirited", "ideological" and not being able to manage the government effectively. Reality can be cruel but the MSM and opposition appear to be out of touch with actual results of voters. In the five years since losing power the Liberals are farther from the prize while the Conservatives keep moving forward making gains in Ontario and Quebec.

• Conservatives 57% success rate in seven contests.
• Liberals 14%
• NDP 14%
• Green 0%
• Bloc have 50% on only two contests tied with Conservatives in QC.

WPG North and Vaughan were long held seats by NDP and Liberals with large margins. Judy and Maurizio both vacated their seats for Mayoralty contests. Maurizio easily won his contest while Judy fell to the incumbent.

the voters have spoken, " and reject the fear mongering and risky Michael Ignatieff coalition.

In WPG North the Liberals fielded a high profile candidate with experience against two rookies in Chief and Javier. In Vaughan the Liberals were criticized for not finding a star candidate. The Provincial Liberals additional funding for the hospital, the CBC At Issue Panel,  Toronto Star ramped up their negative messaging but felt short. Damage control in lowering expectations may work in temporarily deflecting blame to Genco vs Ignatieff. In my opinion the organization and it's leader is responsible.

Days before the campaign ended, Liberals were suggesting that Mr. Genco was going to lose -- by a wide margin -- a constituency where Liberal MP Maurizio Bevilacqua took 49 per cent of the vote in the 2008 election. But that could have been an effort to dampen expectations of a Liberal victory.

This was not the first test of leadership for Ignatieff as reported by Jane Taber on CTV or was it Jack's. Jack and Michael should go back and look at the results from the seven contests in 2009-2010. They should examine the NB sweep of Liberals from power after only one term and rejection of Democrats. They should look at failure to attract high profile candidates and the donations. Are they winning or losing the war of public opinion and support of their base?

Gloria Galloway and Nelson Wiseman come to aid of Michael Ignatieff in the next article. Sorry guys:  Dion was criticized for the  not listening, ineffective management the party, fielding of poor candidates and balance sheet problems. Dion and Ignatieff have both had two years to turn the ship around and the results are clear.

“I think this is totally overblown about the impact that this has on Ignatieff,” said Dr. Wiseman. “For better or for worse, the Liberals are going into the next election with Ignatieff and it’s not the Outremont by-election, in my opinion, that undid Dion. What it was, was the general election.” -Damage Control Part II

The CPC are eligible to have the rebate for capturing at least 10% of the vote in each riding and their turnout went up in both ridings they did not hold. Is it time to stop playing small politics and actually make parliament work for all Canadians?

Jack Layton 1981 1987 after Monday's results he is wishing someone could beam him up right about now.

If I was batting 14% against a team batting 57% 71%  after seven contests, I might reconsider talking trash before they call me on it. Elections Canada results here. The CPC were able to capture 41.9% of the vote in the three contests. The Liberals managed 39.0% while the NDP fell back to 15.8%. The Green managed 2.0%.-Pundits Guide.

With the Christmas break coming shortly, the unsuccessful opposition leaders may want to rethink their messaging before the voters punish them in a general election.

Related articles

• Byelections could set political agenda in Parliament (ctv.ca)
• Jack Layton The Biggest Loser (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)
• Byelections a tough test for political parties (canada.com)
• Vaughan By Election: Let it Snow (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Tories, Liberals poised for byelection upsets, NDP shut out (canada.com)
• By-elections could have major impact on Tories, Liberals (theglobeandmail.com)
• Byelections may fortell full vote (news.nationalpost.com)
• Ignatieff 07 not 007 (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Vaughan chooses new rep in one of three byelections (ctv.ca)

Two Things I learned about Julian Fantino today

1. He felt the back room deals with Liberals-NDP supported by the Bloc was undemocratic: Voters must decide.(Me too!) I feel the Bloc must be isolated and all three federalist parties should work together against this separatist party. His disdain for negative politics is evident and I also share that sentiment. The opposition parties are obsessed with power at any cost and that is unhealthy for a country he loves.

2. His family attends the same church as my cousins in Vaughan. Here is part two of his interview with his thoughts. If you are interested here is a clip from his interview with an alternative media outlet. Some Liberal rags are unhappy including some bloggers that Fantino won't be available to them. Perhaps if they have provided balanced coverage in the Toronto mayoralty race they would have a legitimate gripe. They blew it and now have to deal with the consequences of being viewed as a partisan mouthpiece for the left.

Many of you are uncomfortable with the inaction and problems in Caledonia. As a Conservative I empathize with the objections and groups opposed to his nomination. I don't believe Caledonia is an isolated case and as a country we need to be more vigilant if demanding the rule of law. As noted the opposition and other levels of Government are not consistent with action on serious problems regarding accountability or equality in aboriginal communities. It is a matter of judgment and who we trust. I have not lost confidence or faith in our PM and support his decision to allow the strongest local conservative candidate that may steal this riding or make it competitive.

The recruitment of Julian Fantino into the Conservative tent was not recent undertaking. Fantino noted that the PM while in opposition sought his opinion on matters. That mutual respect may have been the deciding factor why he chose to run with Conservatives. What do you think?

Related articles

• Pundits' Guide: By-election coverage
• Casual Observations: Vaughan Resident Conservative Blogger: Red Ensign 
• The Probability of Winning Vaughn (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)
• Star Candidate: Julian Fantino
• Family Values: Liberals need not apply
• Harper trumpets Fantino's bid for Tory seat (theglobeandmail.com)
• Fantino to run as Tory in byelection: reports (cbc.ca)

Ignatieff Channels Rodney Dangerfield

The poll found Ignatieff earned a net negative score in every region of the country, among men and women, all age groups and all education levels. He scored worse than Harper among all demographic groups, except Quebecers and those with post-graduate degrees.

Summer tour lifts Liberals, but not Ignatieff: poll

Only self-identified Liberal supporters gave Ignatieff an overall positive rating and even that was tepid — 54 per cent favourable versus 32 per cent unfavourable.

Liberal strategist reading Ignatieff leadership scores

Harper, by contrast was viewed favourably by a whopping 88 per cent of Conservatives. He also scored overall positive ratings among Prairie respondents and those with college educations.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg said the results suggest Ignatieff has failed to cultivate a base of loyal supporters who view him as their champion.

“He simply does not have a base out there, whereas Harper does,” Gregg said in an interview.

“As a consequence . . . the Conservative vote is far more resilient when it gets pushed down and, on the other side, there’s no lift for the Liberal vote that might be provided by leadership.”

Liberals are resigned to another defeat, as long as the Conservatives don’t win a majority government. But if their party sits at 25 per cent, there is a chance of Prime Minister Stephen Harper winning a majority, which would keep the Liberals out of government for at least another four years. This scares many of them because Liberals out of power are like fish out of water. If they perceive that Harper can get a majority, the Grits would like to get rid of Ignatieff, regroup around a new leader and go to the polls trying to defeat the Conservatives.

Liberals should have held that leadership convention this guy is done like dinner.

Ian Davey, Mr. Ignatieff's top strategist, is a tough call. “Attack ads are generally effective if they are calibrated right,” he said. “I think there is some issue here on the ‘carpetbagger case,' which may not hold water as it might have in 2006.” That was when Mr. Ignatieff, a new entrant to politics, made his first run at the leadership. With the global recession, with the arrival of Barack Obama, Mr. Davey feels that cheap political partisanship may have less of a place. “The big question is how much of a political paradigm shift are we in?”  - Nice Guys Finish Last June 25, 2009

Quebec MPs not competent or loyal?

Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff has reportedly tabbed former cabinet minister Martin Cauchon to advise him on Quebec. That position has been vacant since Jean-Marc Fournier, Ignatieff's former principal secretary, resigned last week to become Quebec's justice minister.

Cauchon is not a sitting MP, has not sat in Parliament since 2004 and responsible for passing same sex marriage through parliament. Canada is one of the few countries where it is legal today.

In his acceptance speech, Cauchon revealed that, politically, four people in Canada were responsible for the push to accept same-sex "marriage:" besides himself, there were Paul Genest who, as policy advisor to Jean Chretien, used his position to advocate relentlessly for gay marriage; Alex Himmelfarb, Clerk of the Privy Council and Deputy Minister of Justice Morris Rosenberg.

Who pushed for "gay" marriage in Canada?

We're talking about essential freedoms here." Justice Minister Martin Cauchon.

Already in trouble with Catholics, adding Cauchon to your team is political suicide

Social Background Characteristics: The Shrinking Liberal Core
The Liberals were able to coast to victory in 2000 with the support of two key groups:
visible minorities and Catholics. By 2008, the Liberals could no longer count on their loyalty.
The visible minority vote dropped 14 points between 2000 and 2004 (see Figure 2).3 The main beneficiary was the NDP. The Liberals did not lose any further ground in 2006, but in 2008, they lost a massive 19 points. And now it was the Conservatives who benefited. In fact, minority voters were almost as likely to vote Conservative in 2008 as they were to vote Liberal.

• Fundraising fixed
• Grassroots on-board
  
• Star candidates
• Clear vision, a few policies with public support
• United party of MPs  and Senators behind Michael Ignatieff.

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• Bus tour boosts Liberal support but not Ignatieff's, poll suggests (theglobeandmail.com)
• Why did Ignatieff miss so many votes? (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)
• Ignatieff's leadership skills: Loyalty. (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)

Tim Hortons Rolls Up the Profits

Tim Hortons Inc. reported on Thursday a 21 per cent gain in profits, something it calls its best three-month performance in several quarters.

The iconic Canadian coffee chain earned $94.1 million, up from $77.8 million a year ago.

This is obviously a big day for the Tim Hortons family, returning to your Canadian roots after 14 years away. Now, I agree, the United States is a great place to visit, but let’s face it, there is no place like our home and native land, there is no place like Canada. I also suspect that there will be a lot of Canadians actually surprised to hear that Tims is moving its headquarters back home. Your company is such a fixture here on the street corners and in the malls that I’m not sure many Canadians would believe you actually ever moved away, but this company’s success over the past four decades is truly impressive.

Compare what the Liberals did with the Prime Minister welcoming back Tim Hortons to Canada.

Two Liberal MPs and Staff Protest outside Tim Hortons

OAKVILLE – Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s absence today from a special meeting of world leaders at the United Nations in favour of a doughnut factory tour highlights Canada’s faltering world voice under the Conservatives – especially in the global fight against climate change.- Liberal Press Release critical of P.M. Harper missing U.N. speeches.

Like this guy

A Liberal strategist realizing another failed political stunt?

• Conservatives show leadership in walking out from United Speeches by Iranian President. 
• Liberal Party caught playing gotcha politics attacking the Prime Minister in welcoming the return of Iconic Tim Hortons Head Office back to Canada.

Talk to Liberals – office holders, party organizers, fundraisers – around the country and you will tap into a malaise that a good pollster could rout out with a single question: “What's happening?” “Nothin',” the vast majority would respond, with a margin of error of plus or minus very little.

“There is no Liberal Party,” says one lifelong card carrier who has sat at cabinet tables.
“It died a long time ago. It's not completely extinct yet, but there's no there there.” In this lifelong Liberal's eyes, the party has been stalled for years. No new energy, no new ideas, no vision of what it might like to do. The singular advantage of proroguing, this Liberal would say, is that it has put an end to the squirming every time the opposition pounces.
“The ‘gotcha' stuff is out of control,” says the Liberal. “They bring in all these nerdy keener kids from campus and it's some kind of game to them. They're turning politics into pro wrestling.” The media concentrates on the top, Ignatieff, and on the Hill, but disenchanted Liberals say there is a story to be told far from the now-silenced sound bites of the Centre Block - G M

The Conservatives took in $4.1 million in donations between April 1 and the end of June, compared to $2.4 million for the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Quebecois combined. For the Conservatives it is their best second quarter result since coming to power in 2006, despite months of negative headlines about deficits, Guergis and the G20. The Liberals raised a total of $1.6 million, down from last year's total of $4 million when they actually out-tallied the Conservatives on fundraising.- Media Coalition Efforts Fail To Dent Conservative Agenda

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• The Omnipresent Magical Bus Tour (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)
• Can You Run a Car on Tim Hortons Coffee? (treehugger.com)

Lawyers Want To Keep Rubber Stamp

Image via Wikipedia

Another example of investigative journalism at work.

Documents obtained by Postmedia News under Access To Information indicate the U.S. Department of State sent a diplomatic note to the Canadian Embassy in Washington last December outlining concerns raised by the U.S. Department of Justice regarding the transfer of offenders.

The contents of the document are largely blacked out, and the U.S. officials are refusing to comment on issues to a specific country.

They U.S. Department seeks a face to face meeting. 

This is where we can have fun and ask specific sources to make stuff up, give us gossip to paint some theoretical argument.

F 35 5th Generation Fighter $ 9- 16 Billion

Is this the nature of  Trade that Liberals support? What other trade deals are Liberals invested in order to prevent a thickening of the border?

That said lawyers on both sides of the border who represent prisoners seeking international transfers and work closely with government officials involved in offender transfers say they’re aware of U.S. attempts to persuade the Conservative government to reconsider its position.

That's right lawyers who represent prisoners are unhappy the Canadian Government has moved to end the official rubber stamp program of returning Canadian prisoners back to Canada.

What are the statistics for this bilateral trade in prisoners? Are Americans prisoners in Canada clamoring to serve their time in the U.S. penal system? The numbers must be staggering and the potential for damage to trade as a result for housing an extra hundred people in the penal system must be a top priority for the OBAMA administration.

Can we imagine an American, Mexican, Chinese national arrested in Canada for murder demanding their lawyer  seek return to their own prisons?

From Conrad Black, Omar Khadr the media seem obsessed with specific individuals.

The Conservatives have tabled legislation to amend  the International Offenders Act to make improvements in the reparations of convicted criminals wishing to return to Canada.

Under the current legislation, the public safety minister can only reject applications on the basis of national security, namely terrorism-related threats, as well as a person’s affiliation with organized crime.

I don't see the public outrage for criminals to be housed or returned from the U.S. except from the usual suspects. The majority of Canadians and Americans do not engage in criminal activities. In most cases Americans would not ask for a return I suspect because the articles did not give ANY numbers or statistical information or context. 

How do I know this is a fake issue? Add Liberal outrage. (see below)

 

Mark Holland Liberal MP

Holland said he’s concerned the Harper government may be “unnecessarily upsetting” the U.S. by changing a tried and true policy.

“It’s an illogical position Canada is taking and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the United States take retaliatory measures,” he said, nothing the U.S. might start refusing to repatriate American prisoners or simply use this as anther excuse to “thicken the border” making commerce and travel more difficult.

Liberals are unhappy the rubber stamp policy that is one-sided is being amended, will they repeat the pattern of being critical and not showing up to vote against it?

How many Liberals don't show up to vote in Parliament?

The Americans are going to thicken the border over a few Canadian prisoners being housed for their crimes and the  nationalization of energy by Trudeau was a minor irritant. The threat by the Liberals to delay the F 35 procurement estimated value between nine to sixteen billion would not be an provocation Mr. Holland?

The Liberals should be thankful the media has their own agenda. If thirty MPs don't show up to vote on a regular basis as whipped by the Liberal Party who cares what you say on any issue?

If sitting on your hands became an Olympic sport, the Liberals would be champions.

 

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Environics Research: Conservatives Lead Ontario - BC

One month can make a difference when you track the fortunes of Political parties with the same pollster and they keep asking the same questions. Environics Research here.

I don't see the detail in the regional breakdown and have sent an email. Updated  now.

May 18-26, 2010

In Ontario, the Conservatives now hold 40 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the Liberals and 14 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 41 percent over the second place Liberals at 24 percent, while the Conservatives and NDP trail with 19 and 12 percent respectively. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (57%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (47%). The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (47%). In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 39 percent, while the Liberals (25%) and NDP (24%) are in a virtual tie for second place. Details here

Feb 22- 24, 2010

In Ontario, the Liberals now hold 38 percent of the vote compared to 33 percent for the Conservatives and 16 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 37 percent over the second place Liberals at 28 percent, while the NDP and the Conservatives trail with 12 percent each. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (47%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (53%). The Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (34%) are virtually tied in Atlantic Canada, with the New Democrats not far behind at 25 percent. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37 percent, while the New Democrats, Greens and Liberals are in a virtual three-way dead heat for second place.

Summary
 
The support for the Conservatives has been consistent and in the most regions they have a comfortable gap between them and the second place party.

Amateur Hour: Liberals protest Tim Hortons and Burlington City Park

"Look at the field behind me, it is not getting done," Ignatieff said.

Burlington Mayor Cam Jackson said the Liberals picked the wrong field to stage their press conference. The park project just got environmental approval last week and wasn't planned for years."This project was not slated to be done for seven years," Jackson said. He added he won't criticize the Tories or the provincial government on infrastructure spending because he has projects happening all over his municipality.

Burlington Mayor Cam Jackson, who appeared alongside Mr. Baird, later criticized Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Kennedy for what he described as a disingenuous photo op. “I can tell you it was a great visual shot, but I mean it just lacked the substantive facts that gave credibility to it,” the mayor said.

He said there was never any thought that construction would begin on this $6.9-million project, which is to be a multi-use park, until sometime next year.

And he suggested Mr. Ignatieff doesn’t understand how the infrastructure program actually works. He also said he found it “objectionable” that Mr. Kennedy criticized Premier McGuinty for being a partner with the federal government.

Tim Hortons chief financial officer Cynthia Devine said it's hoped the reorganization will improve efficiency, growth and competitiveness.

"Finally, this reorganization will help Tim Hortons align itself to continue to take advantage of lower Canadian tax rates," she said. "These lower tax rates help us and companies like us keep more capital at work and achieve our priority in reinvesting in the business for future growth in our company."

Liberals look small and disgenious by attacking without presenting an alternative and an environmental record of inaction. “I love my double-double as much as the next guy,” said Liberal Energy and Environment Critic David McGuinty. “But examining the latest in doughnut technology while the rest of the world’s leaders gather to confront the challenge of climate change is like Nero’s fiddling while Rome burns.”

Rome is a city in Italy. The Liberal Party is not the Roman Empire.

After a summer that saw the federal Conservatives and Liberals in a virtual tie, the Tories have opened up a comfortable lead over the Liberal Party and appear to be making a breakthrough in Toronto, a new poll suggests.

I don't understand who is advising the Liberal Party to make these mistakes. Someone needs to be fired.