Tuesday, August 25, 2009

A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. - Wag The Dog

Politics: A game of strategy.

Can Harper and Layton put aside the rhetoric to find some common ground to avoid a September 28, 2009 motion by the Liberal Party?

The Conservative Party of Canada and the New Democratic Party would both benefit from weakening the Liberal Party of Canada.

  • The Liberal Party won many ridings with the votes being divided by two conservative parties during the 1984-1990's.
  • The Conservatives/NDP benefitted in October 2008 at the expense of the Liberals who achieved the lowest P.O.P. in over 100 years.

Are the Conservatives or NDP willing to risk a loss of ten or twenty seats to the Liberal Party?
According to a large number of Polls the NDP do not have any upside regarding seats this Fall. The CPC have had a small number of Polls showing a potential for a weak majority or a reduced minority.

If I were a strategist for either the NDP or CPC I would make my priority to weaken the Liberal Party. The NDP would benefit the most by increasing their credibility in negotiating a few concessions in contrast to a Report Card, Blue Ribbon Panel, extra opposition day. If they can negotiate a 12-18 month deal when the concessions expired the Liberals will be in a much weaker bargaining position.
The CPC would also earn "goodwill" for averting an election that might translate at the Polls in 2011.

If Jack is unable to get any "tangible" concessions from Harper what does this mean?
1) Harper believes his numbers are VERY good.
2) Harper does NOT trust the NDP.

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