Polling For Cheerleaders

We have no Federal Campaign, the media likes to spin a fairytale about some mythical horse race and numbers tightening up every few months.

I have often commented comparing different polling results from different pollsters is not fair or balanced in a thirty second soundbite on television.

I have a post on Environics from June here
 
Here are three bloggers that look at polling.


Canadian Election Watch the regional breakdown is pretty wild: apparently, the Tories lead Ontario by 10% (when Ipsos, Nanos and EKOS just told us the Grits lead there by 8%, 7% and 6.6% respectively), and the Liberals are at 33% in Québec (just 5% behind the Bloc), even though most other pollsters put them in the low 20s.
or Democratic Space , All Politics is Local. They are also partisan but have interesting comments from time to time.
 

What is very funny is how each camp spins the favourable polling results to a significant shift that is the result of "x".

Check the balance sheet of every political party. How many people are attending their events. Is the membership growing?

Environics Sept 2010

Our Canadian media is very predictable, they repeat the talking points issued by political insiders of  each party. How did Environics do in measuring the 2008 General Federal election?

Whose team are you cheer leading for? 

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Environics Research: Conservatives Lead Ontario - BC

One month can make a difference when you track the fortunes of Political parties with the same pollster and they keep asking the same questions. Environics Research here.

I don't see the detail in the regional breakdown and have sent an email. Updated  now.

May 18-26, 2010

In Ontario, the Conservatives now hold 40 percent of the vote compared to 35 percent for the Liberals and 14 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 41 percent over the second place Liberals at 24 percent, while the Conservatives and NDP trail with 19 and 12 percent respectively. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (57%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (47%). The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada (47%). In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 39 percent, while the Liberals (25%) and NDP (24%) are in a virtual tie for second place. Details here

Feb 22- 24, 2010

In Ontario, the Liberals now hold 38 percent of the vote compared to 33 percent for the Conservatives and 16 percent for the New Democrats. In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois leads with 37 percent over the second place Liberals at 28 percent, while the NDP and the Conservatives trail with 12 percent each. The Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (47%) and in Manitoba/Saskatchewan (53%). The Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (34%) are virtually tied in Atlantic Canada, with the New Democrats not far behind at 25 percent. In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 37 percent, while the New Democrats, Greens and Liberals are in a virtual three-way dead heat for second place.

Summary
 
The support for the Conservatives has been consistent and in the most regions they have a comfortable gap between them and the second place party.