Best PM Stephen Harper 83.3% up 4.1%

LSI- May 2010

It appears some bloggers and pundits are worried about the latest analysis that the Liberals have improved from their worst popular vote in 150 years because of a couple of polls released by Ekos Research and Nanos Research recently.

Ignatieff Layton both lose points in leadership index score

Speculation gone wild?

Both of the surveys have been taken place at the end of summer and do not reflect a trend. The poll continues to reinforce Canadians don't trust the Liberal leader. Gilles Duceppe the leader of the Separatist party ties the Liberal leader on trust. Jack Layton beats the Liberal leader for second place. This has been the pattern for months.If you examine the leadership scores the PM has improved in every category since May 2010.

The Summer of Discontent as told by the Liberal media

The media love to talk about the race when the Liberals are within a few points of the Conservatives. The Liberals have been above thirty per cent four times since February 2010. In almost every instance the media ramp up the noise on why the Liberals have become competitive and why the Conservatives have slipped. I refer to the four times the Liberals have hit above thirty is just noise.

• The media need to push their narrative that voters are buying into their fairytale and will likely vote according to a few polls.
• The media and the opposition recite the latest fluffy issue(s) as the reason why the numbers have moved.
• The media will ignore the real numbers behind each organization that refute these Polls as noise.

NewsDesk

Real News:

• The Bank of Canada increased its key interest rate by a quarter point to 1 percent. In June, Canada became the first Group of Seven nation to raise interest rates since the global economic crisis. It raised rates again in July.

• The bank said borrowing conditions remain exceptionally stimulative and said any further rate hikes will need to be carefully considered considering the unusual uncertainty surrounding the outlook.

• The bank believes the economic recovery in Canada will be slightly more gradual than it projected because of a weaker outlook in the U.S.

• Canada withstood the global economic crisis better than most developed countries. There was no mortgage meltdown or sub prime lending crisis in Canada where the financial sector is dominated by five large banks.

• Canada has made up nearly all the jobs lost during the recession. The unemployment rate edged up one-tenth of a point to 8 percent in July, the first time the rate has risen in almost a year.

Last week, Canada reported that the country's gross domestic product rose 2 percent in the second quarter, down from 5.8 percent growth in the first quarter.

Canadians have a great deal to be proud of regardless of how the Canadian media ignore the good news.

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Good News Canada: Bad News Liberal Express

Image by Robbie's Photo Art via Flickr

More bumps for the Liberal Express. Can someone page  Peter Donolo for talking points to talk down the good news on the Liberal Express.

When the financial crisis and recession began, Canada was in much better fiscal shape than almost any other industrial country. The federal government and some provinces spent a decade slowly paying down debt. The federal debt-to-GDP ratio declined from 68 per cent in FY1995-96, to just 29 per cent in 2008-09. Most provinces also saw an improvement in the public debt load.

In comparison to the federal outlook, provinces, most notably Ontario, now face a structural fiscal challenge. During good economic times earlier in the decade, many provinces ramped up expenditures on priorities such as health care. In this area, spending increased by an average of 7 per cent annually over the last five years. 

Notwithstanding the structural fiscal challenges of the provinces, Canada is in a much stronger fiscal position than almost every other industrial country. This bodes well for the performance of the Canadian economy as we navigate through stormy global seas. - Canadian Feds Ahead of Plan on Fiscal Re-balancing


This will be another story on the economy that won't get significant attention in our mainstream news. Instead they will look for spinning negative stories to push their own agenda.


The provinces need to reign in their spending.

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• Ottawa finances on track but provinces face 'hard choices' (theglobeandmail.com)
• Federal deficit to be eliminated a year ahead of schedule: Conference Board (canada.com)
• Federal deficit to be eliminated a year ahead of schedule: Conference Board (financialpost.com)
• Provinces Should Exploit Benefits of East-West Electricity Trading: C.D. Howe Institute (newswire.ca)
• Foreign investors feel the love for Canada (theglobeandmail.com)
• Austerity looms for Canada's provinces (financialpost.com)
• Big deficits, mounting debt: It's time for hard choices (theglobeandmail.com)
• Bankruptcies fall again in May (theglobeandmail.com)

Government of Canada Priorities: Jobs, Recovery

Estimates of potential GDP are crucial for monetary and fiscal policymakers who require estimates of the economy’s capacity to gauge inflationary pressures and to assess the budgetary position over the business cycle. Unfortunately, an economy’s potential GDP and output gap are not directly observable and therefore must be estimated. Fortunately the Department of Finance and the Bank of Canada construct estimates of potential GDP which are used in their respective policy analyses and deliberations.

However, given the absence of published estimates over the forecast horizon 2008-2013, it is necessary to construct them.

Future potential growth is assumed at 2.4% annually and an upper bound of 2.7% and lower bound of 2.1% are also considered. This range is consistent with estimates of potential growth provided by private sector forecasters and the Bank of Canada. -The Budgetary Balance and the Economic Cycle December 18, 2008

March 6, 2009 - Global fiscal stimulus is essential now to support aggregate demand and restore economic growth. The International Monetary Fund has called for fiscal stimulus in as many countries as possible, including emerging market and advanced economies. This paper uses simulations with a multi-country structural model to show that worldwide expansionary fiscal policy combined with accommodative monetary policy can have significant multiplier effects on the world economy.-INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

July 6, 2009 - Given the revised economic outlook, updated assumptions, and announced post-budget measures, PBO is now projecting cumulative budgetary deficits of $155.9 billion over the 5-year projection period 2009-10 to 2013-14. The budget deficit is expected to peak at $48.6 billion (3.2 per cent of GDP) in 2009-10, improving to $16.7 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP) by 2013-14. Economic and Fiscal Assessment

November 2009 - Reflecting the better-than-expected employment performance since May and upward revisions to real GDP growth, private sector forecasters have revised down their outlook for the unemployment rate in the near term (Table 1-4). Based on the September 2009 PBO survey, forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 8.4 per cent in 2009 and 8.9 per cent in 2010 – lower than the 8.7 per cent and 9.4 per cent, respectively, expected in the June survey. Economic Fiscal Update

April 9, 2010 -  March’s employment increase brings total gains to 176,000 (+1.1%) since July 2009. Employment edged up by 18,000 in March, continuing an upward trend that began in July 2009. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 8.2%.- Labour Force Survey

April 08, 2010 - This isn't a news story about some staffer writing a letter to the editor supporting her boss, again, dredged up by some tragic hope that it will distract Canadians from the growing obvious - that the country is in good hands, and that the Liberal party has nothing new to offer. -Searching For Liberty

April 10, 2010 - Where the Helena Guergis media frenzy is most beneficial to Liberals is that it is distracting attention away from our sensational economic recovery. - The Iceman This story should be shouted from the rooftops because it affects every Canadian unlike other stories that the Lame Stream Media's been focused on lately. - Chasing Apple Pie

Priorities can be a problem for some political parties.
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