Pollsters Channel Alice In Wonderland

Do Canadian pollsters ignore financial health and ballot results?

     The media in Canada like to cite Canadian pollsters as experts in public opinion and with the ability to read the tea leaves regarding issues and future election outcomes. Polling in Canada versus the United States is equivalent to comparing the pewee hockey to the NHL. Measuring and shaping public opinion costs real money.

     In the United States the Obama administration led the costly public fight for Health reform. I am confident the Democratic party with pro-Health reform groups spent more than the combined budget of all federal political parties in trying to measure and shape public opinion in support of Health reform. Here is a list of polls on Health Reform.

      The mid term elections estimate  four billion was spent in campaigns in the United States. In Canada our Federal parties top out at under twenty million each for a national campaign.  That means roughly less than $ 100 million  in total for all parties and groups. In California the contest for Governor saw the Republicans with Meg Whitman as their candidate spend an estimated $143,651,194.28.  

     Good news, money is not the deciding factor in every contest: California voters decided a career politician Jerry Brown (Democrat) estimated to have spent one-fifth on their campaign was victorious. Location, location location: California, Toronto are both Liberal strongholds but Mayoral Elect-Rob Ford demonstrated Liberals can be defeated. George Smitherman has not released the political spending on his campaign for Mayor. The majority of negative  campaigning by the MSM backfired and helped propel Ford's campaign.

     Insight costs money: How much money is spent by the all Federal political parties in assessing public opinion on issues before proceeding with a policy position in Canada? Does anyone imagine it reaches ten per cent of what was spent by the former eBay CEO in 2010?

The last time the Liberal Party of Canada had more verifiable public support than the Conservatives: June 28, 2004. That was six years ago. Since than the math does not lie for the Liberals.

The Federal Liberal party might have a competitive ballot position in Toronto, Montreal Island, Vancouver and pockets in Atlantic Canada without the need to spend large amounts of money as proven by Jerry Brown.

     What lessons can we take voters in sweeping the Liberal government from office this fall?  They did not turn to the NDP but swung for a blue wave. How do you dismiss the War-chest of corporate donations for the incumbent Liberal government? Grassroots donations matter.

     Canada's Party in touch with their grassroots: Which Federal political party is supported by the largest number of individuals making small donations starting in 2004?

 

     Financial Health and Ballot support are overlooked in most analysis by the pundits and pollsters in Canada. In my opinion the tea leaf pollsters gloss over the importance and decline of both. This demonstrates the serious gap in the reliability of their predictive polling analysis. The merger of  two Conservative political parties, their financial health and ballot box support has transformed the political landscape in Canada.

     Federal Politics in Canada have been changed and some political parties have been unable to adjust to these regulations. Mass advertising is estimated to cost over $ 10 million. The relatively short campaign in Canada in comparison to the American system is one significant contrast. In the United States Third party advertising and support is allowed.

  

In June 2003, Parliament adopted Bill C-24: An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act and the Income Tax Act.

Bill C-24 was followed in 2006 by Bill C-2, known as the Federal Accountability Act. This legislation further restricted political donations and made other changes to the Canada Elections Act intended to increase the transparency of the electoral process and better control the influence of money on elections.

Grassroots support from individuals has become more important. Here is a very brief RECAP without introducing ISSUES. Just the Financial Health and ballot support.

• In 2000 the LPOC has won 172 seats with 5,252,031 votes, popular support was 40.85% (swing +2.39%).
• In 2003 the LPOC raised $ 24,160,449 from 21,830 donors. On June 28, 2004 they won 135 seats with 4,982,220 votes, popular support was 36.73% (swing  - 4.12%) was the LAST time Liberals were able to outspend their competitor in a General Election. 
• In 2004 the LPOC raised $ 4,719,388 from 17,429 donors. Their competitor has reduced the competitive advantage in popular support and finances. Conservatives catch Liberals on Financial Health and ballot support.

Political Landscape Shift: Liberal lose advantages Dollars and Votes

The customer is always right. Walmart opening stores in Canada has transformed the retail experience in Canada?
Financial health and ballot support are reflected in the new political entity.

• The PC party raised $ 4,324,348 from 17,941 donors, CA raised $ 8,303,537 from 82,316 donors in 2003.

Pundits, Wikipedia makes the classic mistake in combining the numbers from Joe Clark PC's 2000 with Stockwell Day Canadian Alliance 2000 election results on November 27, 2000  as if they were fungible. They are not, voters  are like customers they will decide what retailer to support.

• The Conservative party of Canada raised $ 10,910,320 from 68,382 donors in 2004. If the supporters in 2003 were fungible the math would have been $ 12,627,885 from 99,807 donors in 2004. Donors from both parties may have dropped off.

     Managing customer expectations: if you buy a Big Mac in Toronto, Halifax or Victoria you expect it will  taste the same. In 2000 voters had the Progressive Conservatives and Canadian Alliance parties. In December 2004 the old lineup was no longer available. In summer of 2004 the ballot (menu selection) had another option. Conservatives across Canada made a decision to WIN by offering Canadians a clear alternative from the Liberal party.

     On December 8, 2003 the Conservative Party of Canada was registered with Elections Canada, making the merger of the Canadian Alliance Party and the Progressive Conservative Party official.
     March 20, 2004 convention (REAL one) with Belinda, Tony and Stephen vying for leadership of new party.  Big money from corporations and big unions is no longer a factor in Financial Health.

     GG Adrienne Clarkson on the advice of PM Paul Martin pulled the plug on May 23, 2004. The public had less than five  months to review the merged political party and two months of the leadership of Stephen Harper.

• The Conservative Party in 2005 raised $17,847,451 from 106,818 in spite of losing the election in 2004.

     Since than, we have seen a new dominant political force reshape politics in Canada. I have been clear it takes money to be competitive. Does anyone believe the Liberals since losing power in 2006 have closed the gap in financial health or ballot performance with the Government? Within two years Dion led Liberals generated $ 5.8 million with 30,890 donors. The popular support at the ballot fell to an all time historical low of 3,633,185 voters resulting in a 26.3% popular vote.

The Conservatives led by PM Stephen Harper in three General elections

• 4,019,498 votes in 2004
• 5,374,071 votes in 2006
• 5,208,796 votes in 2008
• $10,910,320 from 68,382 donors in 2004
• $17,847,451 from 106,818 donors in 2005
• $18,641,306 from 108,890 donors in 2006
• $16,983,630 from 107,492 donors in 2007
• $21,179,483 from 112,184 donors in 2008
• $17,702,201 from 101,385 donors in 2009
• $12,190,066 from first three quarters in 2010.

     How much time do you need to recognize the snake oil or the salesman your are pedaling is not working?Conservatives donations do show a gain for the first three quarters from 2009. The donations to the Liberal Party has dropped off from the levels in 2009 in EVERY quarter including the number of donors.

The Liberals have been down so long that their $3.7-million increase may look like up, but those numbers should be treated with caution -- 2009 donations were flattered by two large fund-raisers and a leadership convention that provided them with a very large (and likely un-repeatable) fund-raising bump in the second quarter. -John Ivison

Pundits Guide Spike 2009

Financial Health 2009: Was Rocco Rossi blamed after second quarter fell flat?

• The Conservatives raised $3,139,102.78 vs. $  867,064.96 from Liberals in Q4
• The Conservatives raised $4,514,207.41 vs. $1,944,231.70 from Liberals in Q3
• The Conservatives raised $1,253,032.14 vs. $3,878,113.54 from Liberals in Q2
• The Conservatives raised $4,361,504.04 vs. $1,831,843.33 from Liberals in Q1 

Third Quarter 2008 vs 2009 Spin from LPOC after Q2 Big Fish

     Frank Graves of Ekos Research and many pundits don't like it. The math does not add up of a grass roots movement such as a tea party in Canada for the opposition. Monte Solberg is a consultant at Fleishman Hillard Canada and former Conservative MP, his article illustrates the mistakes in the Liberal party.

In their Tea Party, the Liberals have carelessly dropped their own tea into the harbour. They have quite casually and accidentally torched their own house. But perhaps that ascribes too much movement to their movement. It is less a movement than an inertia. -Monte Solberg

    The Liberals remind me of the former Canadian iconic retailer Eaton's that was too slow to adapt to the change in the retail landscape. The Liberal party did not emulate Canadian Tire: That was their mistake, CT has survived the new retail shift from  new and increased competition from Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's because they adapted and were not interested in resting on their laurels. What do you think?
I have sourced the information from Elections Canada, Pundits Guide and Wikipedia election results 2004-2008.

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Everyone Loves Harper

Annual Stampede Breakfast PM Harper

I know what you are thinking but bear with me.  The West began a split from the Progressive Conservative Party of Brian Mulroney and Joe Clark in the late-eighties, early 90's. The West had already rejected the Liberals for the most part in the 70's, Robert Stanfield PC and the CCF were embraced.

The Liberals through unilateral changes in campaign reform are responsible for giving over $ 60 million dollars of taxpayers money to the right of centre party led by Stephen Harper since 2004.

Liberals, Democrats and Separatists MP's Love Stephen Harper and their voting record in parliament proves it. Canadian voters have only awarded a minority since 2004 but PM Stephen Harper has never had a non-confidence unlike Paul Martin who did within two years of his mandate. Voters rejected him in 2006.

Background in the Liberal mindset on campaign reform.

Campaign Reform by Liberals in 2000

The new Canada Elections Act introduced by Bill C-2, which came into force on September 1, 2000, does not alter the voting process itself, but modifies the federal electoral system to make it more accessible, fair and transparent.

It greatly empowers the Top Civil Servant at the head of Elections Canada as previously it could only be enforced through the criminal courts.

In 2003, the Chrétien government passed An Act to Amend the Canada Elections Act and the Income Tax Act. This Act amended the Canada Elections Act to include stronger financial disclosure and registration requirements for political entities, introduced new limits on political contributions, and tighter restrictions on contributions from labour unions and corporations to political parties and leadership contestants. The Act further implemented new public financing provisions, allowing political parties to access public funding to support their activities. The Act also amended the Income Tax Act, increasing the maximum tax credit for a political contribution.-MapleLeafweb

 

The Liberal Party must miss a trans-formative leader such as Stephen Harper:

Stephen Harper was born in Toronto and attended Leaside Richview Collegiate Institute. When he was very young he was a Liberal and than later a PC.
"What drove him into politics was indignation, outrage," argues commentator William Johnson, who has written a biography called Stephen Harper and the Future of Canada. It was ideology, not love of the game, that Mr. Johnson believes pushed Mr. Harper into public life.
"One thing that I would say about him, with great conviction, is that he's a straight arrow," Mr. Johnson believes. "What you see is what you get. He's not good at acting or pretending. He doesn't weep with widows and hug every orphan in sight, and he won't wear a hundred hearts on his sleeve. By character and by principle he opposes all the photo ops and false sentiments" that are part of political theatre.- Who is Stephen Harper?
Stephen Harper grew unhappy with political culture of several parties and with the help of many reshaped the political landscape in Canada.

In March 2002 Stephen Harper beat Stockwell Day to lead the Canadian Alliance. Within 18 months he merged the PC with Canadian Alliance to form the Conservative Party of Canada by beating Belinda Stronach and Tony Clement on March 20, 2004.

On May 23, 2004, Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, on the advice of Martin, ordered the dissolution of the House of Commons. Following a 36-day campaign, voters elected 308 Members of the House of Commons. 

History in the making a slow romance with Ontario playing hard to get.

Canada Day PM Stephen Harper

The 2006 Canadian federal election (more formally, the 39th General Election) was held on January 23, 2006, to elect members of the Canadian House of Commons of the 39th Parliament of Canada. The Conservative Party of Canada won the greatest number of seats: 40.3% of seats, or 124 out of 308, up from 99 seats in 2004, and 36.3% of votes: up from 29.6% in the 2004 election. The election resulted in a minority government led by the Conservative Party with Stephen Harper becoming the 22nd Prime Minister of Canada. By proportion of seats, this was Canada's smallest minority government since Confederation. Despite this it was the longest serving minority government led by a party other than the Liberal Party of Canada, and the third longest serving minority government overall.

In 2008 Canadian federal election (40th General Election) was held on on Tuesday October 14, 2008. The Conservative Government were able to pick up an additional 19 seats, Liberals gave up 26 seats, Separatist  lost 2,  and the NDP picked up 8 additional seats. The Green Party gain no seats but make tremendous gains with raw votes.

In November of 2008 the conservatives tried in their economic update to stop the flow of taxpayers money in excess of $ 10 million per year to their own political party war-chest but the coalition led by Dion, endorsed by all opposition political party leaders demanded the political subsidy remain and it was undemocratic to remove it. They were threatening an election over it.

The Conservative Party of Canada has been able to raise $ 147,594,561 without the Liberal Campaign Reform changes. If you include the subsidy they have earned through various revenue streams nearly $ 250 million since 2004.

• In 2006 the Bloc and NDP took turns passing the Conservative Party of Canada's Agenda.
• In January 2009 the Liberals abandoned their coalition in order support Stephen Harper.
• In September 2009 Jack Layton did the same.
• In 2010 we have at least thirty Liberal MPs who are unable to show up, whipped not, to vote against Stephen Harper Conservative Party of Canada Agenda.
• This summer Ignatieff spent his summer dancing, talking about his unrequited love for the Conservative Agenda and visiting friends asking for money. The Liberal Express summer bus tour has been a flop, according to a new Leger Marketing poll.

  

h/t/Pundits Guide Party Financing.

The Harper Govt accomplishments here

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Politics: Moving The Chess Pieces

Politics requires motivating your opponents to act against their self-interests.

The Opposition parties in Parliament rely on the same pool of voters and are experiencing the similiar difficulty the Progressive Conservatives, Reform, Canadian Alliance parties experienced during the thirteen years of Liberal government.

If the centre, centre right voters were to remain divided the Liberals led by Paul Martin may still have clung to power. Ontario voters rejected the Federal Liberals in 2008.

Today the centre, centre right, voters have only one national party eligible to form the federal government. The results are evident with the CPC forming the government with the largest number of seats. The smaller parties through a coalition can legally take power if the Governor General asks them to form government. A coalition government made up without the party holding the largest numbers of seats is NOT a regular, normal event in our recent Canadian Political History. In December 2008 Canadians pushed the CPC to 46% against the coalition parties seizing power. Only in Quebec was the idea popular.

ht/ Stephen Taylor

If we search for Google News stories concerning “prorogation” OR “prorogue” AND “Facebook” we learn that the Canadian media has written 424 stories, while the Facebook group protesting prorogation has 208,744 members. This amounts to 492 new members to the Facebook group for every MSM article referencing the group over the past few weeks. This number does not include television, magazine and radio coverage of the Face book group. And to think, it all started with a “fury” of 20,000 when the group was in the budding stages of becoming an MSM darling. - Stephen Taylor January 21, 2010

 

ht/ Alberta Ardvark

The Liberal Party of Canada returned from their Christmas Vacation to stage a photo in the afternoon on January 25, 2010 in front of the locked doors of Parliament. Those doors were NOT locked, the NDP took their photos in the morning before the cleaning staff had unlocked the doors. IT was a classic example of a failed publicity stunt.

 Bob Rae had no qualms in using prorogation several times as Ontario's Premier.

The Liberals spent several days holding meetings in Ottawa trying to keep the attention of the national media the Liberals were "back to work".

The Government responded by sending some media releases to get "air time" and allowed photos of cabinet meetings demostrating they were still at work. In light of the media driven agenda to cast the twenty two delay of Parliament as something unusual, a threat to democracy, avoiding work, our government sent a letter cancelling the March Break for Parliament. It was a brilliant move and the Liberals and Bloc immediately agreed to the cancellation of the time off. No March Break For You! , Liberal MP complains the changes.

Check.

The Throne Speech was very long and included an item that media went "ALL IN".  A request by a Progressive Conservate Senator (appointed by Paul Martin) to set up a committee to review "gender neutrality" in our National Anthem. (Wednesday March 3, 2010) Apparently this was a serious matter for our one dimensional media at the exclusion of all others.

In less than 24 hours .....

The Deficit Budget was presented on Thursday March 4, 2010 and was virtually ignored by everyone as our media was busy asking Canadians about the National Anthem.

Stephen Taylor has a great site and lists the feedback of stakeholder reaction on March 4, 2010.

 Purchasing a pair of new shoes in introducing a new budget is a tradition for Finance Ministers

The NDP, Bloc recognize the Ignatieff led Liberals are unprepared or unwilling to vote against the government have resorted to their traditional roles of voting against the government.

The Liberals after losing power in 2006 have been unable to present a credible image of an "alternative government" to the Canadian voters. In October 2008 Liberals suffered the worst popular vote since confederation. They were greatly reduced to seventy seven seats based largely in the three largest cities. In 2009 in four contests they failed to post any gains against the CPC led government, the CPC in fact won 50% of the seats including one held by a Bloc MP.

Check.

Real tragedy struck and Canadians responded.

Haiti broke the media driven campaign around prorogue. Next the Olympics required the media and opposition parties to pause their attacks and criticisms for nearly 17 days erasing all their momentum they built against this government.

PM SH praises Heil for Gold Win

Check.

Return to Canadian Politics: Throne Speech, Budget. The Games we ARE NOT watching. (Ottawa bubble)

The Liberals state they are AGAINST the Budget. So what are they doing about it? How is the MEDIA reporting the Liberal Party position?

At least 10 Liberal MP's are being asked not to show up for work, vote against the budget. Our loyal opposition is to challenge, influence the Government's Agenda.

Liberals are REFUSING to act responsibly and hold the government to ACCOUNT as per our traditions in our parliamentary democracy. The NDP, Bloc MP's are going to show up for work and not undermine our parliament.

Source: Parliament

Liberal Loyalty? (oxymoron)

First, the Liberal Party of Canada is solidly united behind the leader Michael Ignatieff, just as it was united behind Stéphane Dion, Paul Martin, Jean Chrétien, John Turner, and Bob Rae. I know, Rae has nothing to do with it, but let's give him some latitude. -Angelo Perischilli

Source December 23, 2009 Blue Wave Part II

The Fall: the economy will continue to expand, more of the stimulus will have taken hold: An election will take place and the Liberals will continue to undermine our Government with publicity stunts without providing an alternative.

Checkmate.

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