Conservative Majority: Taxpayers Message

[1] Ekos Politics October 15, 2009 Tories Consolidate Lead http://www.ekospolitics.ca/

Angus Reid Strategies provided another marker that reinforced the Ekos Politics snapshot leading up to the rout of the Liberals in the four by elections a few weeks later. Angus was the most accurate pollster in predicting the results in the 40^th general election.

Angus snapshot pointed to the fact 40 per of decided voters would cast a ballot for a Conservative candidate in their riding if a federal election took place today. The Liberals placed a distant second at 26 per cent.

On the Economy and trust the Liberals did not make the case for replacing the incumbent in 2009. Half of Canadians (50%) are satisfied with the reaction of the federal government to the economic crisis. Forty-four per cent either completely or moderately trust the PM Stephen Harper to do the right thing to help the economy recover.

Only 25% feel the same way about the Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. This is the second time the Conservatives hit the forty per cent threshold as the Liberals beat the election drums with the incredulous statement of Harper, your time is up threat

Are seventy-six questions on the Afghanistan prisoner treatment-transfer more pressing the our Economy and Jobs in December 2009?

A committee on the Afghanistan mission was hi-jacked to provide an opportunity for partisan positioning over the handling of captured prisoners. How many Canadians were being asked to subscribe without proof our government, civil servants, military were covering up war crimes?

Fast forward to another four by elections in 2010 did the Liberals or the left take any lessons from their failures in 2009? The Conservatives picked up another two seats including a long held Liberal riding just north of Toronto. The full court press failed and taxpayers rejected the Liberal brand.
 

Fantino, Taxpayers reject Liberals for Conservatives 

 Fantino is the celebrity choice. Many voters told the Star they feel comfortable with his name recognition, a plus for federal Conservatives, who could strip away this longtime Liberal riding and advance their march to the glittering Grit prize of Toronto.- Linda Diebel Toronto Star

We are now day four in a thirty-six day campaign with the opposition promising to spend more taxpayers money as if it will be a free lunch. Taxpayers have been firing the tax and spend Liberals in Europe, the United States, New Brunswick and most recently in Toronto with the election of Rob Ford as Mayor.

2011 Taxpayers Crush Liberal tax and spend brand

Kelly McParland wit on display:

For Toronto’s urban sophisticates, it was a wipe-out. Total repudiation. Worse than the time they ran out of well-oaked chardonnay at Vintages. What are they supposed to do now, move to Calgary? Buy a leaf blower, for Chrissake? Any day now they’ll be erecting barriers at Pusateri’s, checking IDs. No one gets in without a credit card from Home Depot.

Wearily they munched their almond biscottis and totted up the devastation. Someone would have to contact the holistic, non-profit communal bike-sharing project and warn them the grand opening, scheduled for January, would be delayed.- National Post

His message was widely panned by the traditional media outlets and the taxpayers ended the debate with eight minutes after the ballots were counted. Are the media outlets based in Toronto and Ottawa out of touch with the taxpayers? We already can see the opposition politicans are for returning to the polls for a fourth time in seven years. Why are the Liberals still not listening to the taxpayer?

Taxpayers across Canada are going to show up will Ignatieff's seat be in play?

Related articles

• Harper easily takes campaign’s early days (theglobeandmail.com)
• "NDP, Liberals crazy to hand Stephen Harper Conservatives a majority government by forcing election" and related posts (billtieleman.blogspot.com)
• Harper's Tories to face off against Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition in early May (russ-campbell.blogspot.com)
• Liberals 23% revisiting new historic low: Liberal Strategy? (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• "THAT guy" at work everyone hates - Michael Ignatieff (searchingforliberty.blogspot.com)

Liberals want Canadians to spend $ 300 million to dump their leader?

Angus Poll March 11, 2011

The Conservatives remain within striking distance of the 40 per cent mark at the national level, and have maintained the upper hand in Western Canada and Ontario. The Liberals are at their lowest level in more than a year, and their leader is not making headway on approval. Compared to December, there is a sizeable increase in the proportion of respondents who believe Ignatieff is dishonest (+11) and arrogant (+6).- Angus Poll here

Angus was the most accurate in 2008 General Election. The Liberals have not been competitive according to their polling since May 4, 2010. Campaigns matter.

Al and Michael perhaps are NOT the best liberal actors

It appears all the free publicity provided by the media outlets in pushing the talking points from the opposition  war rooms about the Federal government are not working. Could it be Canadians are much smarter than the producers of political spam?

Ekos has Conservatives with a seven point lead in Ontario. In 2008 it was only five points. Several seats were close and the two points could mean a loss of a dozen more Liberals in Ontario. A few more seats are vulnerable as a result of the Rob Ford nation. Taxpayers are pushing back and the Liberals and NDP are on the wrong side of the voters. Conservatives won't need Quebec if the West, North and Atlantic provinces follow the trend-line in dumping the Liberals.

Pundits Guide close contests general election 2008 Ontario

"Apart from the overall national lead, the most notable drift that we have seen over the past several polls is that the Conservatives are now significantly ahead in vote-rich Ontario," the EKOS analysis said. "This is a very significant and fairly new found advantage for the Conservatives."
Conservative support stands at 41 per cent in Ontario, according to the poll, with the Liberals at 34 per cent. The NDP support is at 14.4 per cent in the province. -Ekos Pollster has bad news for Ontario Liberals: Toronto and 905 will fall?

After five years of reckless media coverage of non-issues you would hope senior executives of these media outlets would have a clue about the damage to their own brand and credibility. Perhaps the CBC executives should worry about their problems?

The country's information watchdog has slammed the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. and Canada Post for significant delays in responding to access-to-information requests — handing the federal postal service a "red alert," which is worse than a failing grade.- What is the CBC hiding? Why are the opposition parties selective in their use of reports from Kevin Page and Suzanne Legault?

Liberals surge to nearly 28%: Calls to Mental Health professionals drop by 30%?

Let's give the Liberals a reason to celebrate. The have once again almost hit 30%. 2009 was a bad year with most of it being held to below thirty per cent. 2011 has not started off any better with being unable to break above the thirty per cent in popular support. It must be demoralizing for the  remaining supporters to keep reading how their current leader is a drag on the national numbers. Ekos full report here. This video is tribute to the hard working and perpetual man in motion known as Ignatieff. Alfred E. Neuman would be very proud.

It has been quite a ride for the remaining Liberal faithful since Ignatieff has taken over the natural governing party in December 2008.

A gain of one per cent since the worst showing in 150 years is reason to celebrate.

I can only hope this latest surge in Ekos polling from 24.8% to 27.3% ( +2.5%) gives the Liberal more reason to pull the plug and defeat the Conservative minority budget in March. It will be wonderful to hear the Liberals trash our military, our international reputation, our recovery and demand taxpayers pay more money for social engineering.

Canada News Desk last  Dec 9 2010 - Feb 11, 2011 Ekos Poll here

The push back has only begun on the unfunded Public Union pensions and benefits by the state governments in the United States. Our our Federal Budget needs to be balanced and blaming corporations won't work. Everyone is going to be asked to take a hair cut, including the largest public unions in Canada.

Canadians won't return to blaming job creators as greedy capitalists, we did not bailout our Banks or Bay Street. Canada has fared better than most in the developed economies. Canadians won't accept the "free lunch" or Robin Hood take from the rich to feed from the poor rhetoric anymore.

The gravy train for taxes by government appears to be coming to an end and this terrifies the central planners in our society. They can't find enough support to help them with their wealth redistribution schemes. Their ideology has failed everywhere it has been tried.

Having fun with Ekos Research

Planes and more planes CPC leading in every province except QC and East Coast (ATL).

City slickers in Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa. Toronto gap between Liberals and Conservatives is much smaller thanks Dalton, Michael and George. Bus Tours, Campaigns importing Liberals to sell , double digit hydro rate increases, Green Energy Act, National Daycare and the Liberal record of massive cuts to health, education and social services during the decade of darkness. Thanks guys.

In every age group the Conservatives lead except under 25. Looks like families and adults with careers agree have not shared the sadness by the opposition and media in the last few days.


Ekos Research here.

Related articles

• A Tale Of Two Cities: Toronto Shifting Right, Calgary Shifting Left (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)

Commentary:EKOS Research: Green Machine

Has anyone seen or heard from the Green Party in months? It appears the less we hear and see of them the higher support they find according to Ekos Research. The Green Juggernaut continues to plow through their opposition! The "others" are holding steady with nearly four percent!

"Quebec voters are crying out for a green option capable to truly promote their environmental interests at the House of Commons, and I believe Jacques Rivard is the right person to represent the Green Party of Canada in Quebec." November 24, 2009

Rivard said he quickly realized the Green Party was well-intentioned but didn't have the resources necessary to develop the party in Quebec

Ekos is having an interesting excercise in defending how they uniquely find support levels for the Green Party in double digits. Ekos Research Poll for June 2-10, 2010 is here.

Ekos has been polling support for the Green Party above ten per cent since June 2009.

Ekos has also included another category called "other" since February 2010.

Ekos: Our survey also finds that 14.5% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Highlights Ekos Research:

• BC: Liberals 19.1% remain in 4th place just 1.1% behind the Green Party at 20.2%. (M.O.E is 6.8)
• Vancouver: Democrats big spike at expense of all (HST fallout?)
• AB: The Green Party is 3.9% ahead of the NDP (M.O.E. 7.9)
• QC: Battle for 2nd place Liberals are 1.7% ahead of Conservatives (M.O.E is 4.9)
• Battle of Sexes: Conservatives lead both
• Age: Every group including the Justin Bieber subset shows a Conservative advantage!
• Education: University or Higher has returned to Lib with a 5.1% gap (M.O.E 4.1)
• Toronto: Liberals have suddenly opened a 16.6% gap vs 0.6% gap previous Ekos Poll here.

Anyone curious how you keep support for the Liberals above 25%, do you boost Metropolitan numbers?

In Ontario Ekos previous poll finds the Liberal had a 4.0 point lead with MOE of 4.2, this week 0.2 increase with MOE 3.9. How does Ekos classify this significant swing of 0.2% in Ontario?

 "a small but very important lead."

The field dates for this survey are June 9 – June 15, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 2,013 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,725 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

June 10 2010 vs June 17, 2010 Ekos Metropolitan Snapshots:

The field dates for this survey are June 2 – June 8, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 1,789 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,541 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Campaigns matter and the actions of the opposition to avoid a test of parliamentary supremacy that might trigger an election is evidence of the trouble with left of centre parties. The budget has passed with the pattern of 30 Liberal MPs missing in action. The opposition was well unwilling to oppose the Bill making Pardons more difficult. The opposition is not interested in going to the voters for fear of punishment.

Will the Green Party of Canada be able to negotiate their participation in the debates after failing to win a single seat in 2008?

News Media: Journalists Should Report Their Own Personal Bias on Blogs

"The greatest problem with news is not that journalists are influenced by their perceptions," Haskell writes. "The greatest problem is that news audiences do not realize journalists are influenced by their perceptions."

In 2000 was Stockwell Day was destroyed for his religious views?

Were the media to blame? Is our own bias responsible for how we feel about how the media is being blamed?

 

Most of the national television journalists who completed his questionnaire revealed that they have little personal interest in religion and that they view evangelicals with disdain.

 

 

..reviewer John P. Ferré finds there is not enough solid evidence to support the claims. The sample was too small. I recommend looking at his lists.

 

Resolution for the CBC and other Canadian media outlets that feel it might be necessary or important to update their journalistic Code of Ethics and provide viewers, critica an oppotunity to engage, restore credibility in their brand or product.

Do journalists report more favourably on people that they like than on those they don’t? Canada’s evangelicals think so. For years, they’ve accused the country’s news personnel of being prejudiced against them both personally and in their coverage. However, up to now, the evangelicals’ charge of media bias has never been empirically examined. This book puts that charge to the test. An in depth survey of national news personnel accompanied by an extensive, multi-year examination of news coverage reveals how Canada’s journalists feel about evangelicals, how they report on evangelicals, and how and when their feelings influence their reporting. In the end, this book concludes when the beliefs and actions of Canadian evangelicals directly clash with the heart-felt convictions of Canadian national journalists, the journalists are willing to abandon their professional objectivity and slant their stories against their ideological opponents.- David M. Haskell


OR
 

They can delay and whitewash the entire controversy. Let it just blow over and in a few months it will be forgotten. If the Management is serious about the brand, they should use this as an opportunity to rebuild and reconnect.

 

Require a disclosure of  Personal Opinions on Major Issues from the journalists so viewers can have that extra information. A series of 100+ questions.

• Education
• Role of Government
• Birth Control, Abortion, who should pay?
• Family, Marriage
• Equality what does it mean?
• Religion: Role Conspiracy Theory
• Pensions: Public, Private, Who is responsible to pay?
• Justice: Criminal Punishment, Rehabilitation, Capital Punishment etc.
• Taxation basic services or wealth redistribution etc.
• Division of Powers: Large Federal Government vs Provincial, Municipal Authority
• Individual Responsibility vs Collectivism
• Political Ideology: Socialism, Marxism, Oligarchy, Theocracy, Democracy etc.
• Economic Education Litmus Test: How things work.
• Global, Interprovincial, Free Markets vs Protectionism, Union Supply Side (Quebec Dairy)

Everyone has a bias or a lens in which they feel something is good or bad and it does affect how you react. I do like the recommendations in having journalists report their own biases including their preferences on a large number of topics as a side note on a blog as for more disclosure.
 

Inside the CBC
 

The Iceman has posted Measuring CBC Bias and Alberta Ardvark has posted on the CBC here. Chasing Apple Pie has a great piece on CBC here showing the problem has existed before the Ekos Research President Frank Graves outing by Kory Teneycke here.

 

Proud to be Canadian has detailed page on the CBC.  I also visit the The Tea Makers for inside scoops.

Ekos Poll Research April 28 May 4, 2010 Conservatives 7pt lead

Ekos Research has some interesting comments on their analysis of their latest poll. Anyone notice Toronto Liberal stronghold? I can't remember the Conservatives ever leading a poll in Metro-Toronto. In 2008 the gap was 20 points? Where is the official Liberal Party of Canada panic button?

Source here.


Note again one Poll means nothing, margin of error is substantial and for many the latest disclosure by Frank Graves makes use of this polling for some highly suspect. That being said did Toronto call it quits on the Liberals too? If you look at education you will see University Education or Higher also is tied or 0.1% for CPC.

Note I think John Baird is having too much fun calling out the Liberals for being hypocritical.It is not a difficult  subject to point out. Keep up the great work! Let's get the meeting planners of the Liberals opened for scrutiny.

Source for hansard: here

Pollsters April 2010 Round Up

Here is a summary of the Polls April 2010

• Angus Reid Public Opinion here
• Leger here.
• Ekos Research here.
• Ispos Reid here.
• Harris-Decima Research here.

Democratic Space has an interesting site that includes seat projections here.
A partisan Liberal blogger that I visit is here and include a May projection update.
Note: The best way to measure a trend is to examine each pollster on an individual basis, their design and look for potential for flaws of bias. The table I provided should NOT be used to draw any conclusions. If you examine the second line graph with Harris-Decima a trend line can be applied.
Again I don't recommend in over analyzing a Poll in a bubble. Look at the financial health of each party as it is estimated to cost nearly $ 20 million to run a national campaign, the leader is he visiting new ridings or old ridings trying to shore up or save the furniture. Campaigns matter.
 Nik Nanos here.

Harris-Decima here

Liberal Party of Canada: Xenophobia Cultural Warriors Since 1988

Cultural Warrior, what party portrayed Brian Mulroney as less patriotic, and fanned the flames of fear accepting a Free Trade Association with our American neighbour would reduce us to a colony?

Hint: Same party, same strategy invoked against Reform, Canadian Alliance and now CPC.

The Liberal leader, John Turner, based his national election campaign on fear and hatred of the Americans -- and came fairly close to winning. But when the election was over and Brian Mulroney's Tories had signed the agreement, the Liberals began a long, furtive creep toward the Conservative position. By the time they were returned to power in 1993, with John Turner forgotten and Jean Chrétien the Prime Minister, the Liberals had adopted, without debate, the very policy they had denounced as treason. Having torn the country apart emotionally, turning husbands against wives and parents against children, they simply abandoned the subject. They probably think of it today as a minor incident, another political gimmick that didn't quite work, but surely it left a residue of anti-U.S. distrust. -Robert Fullford

Patrick Muttart used to be the director of strategic communications in the Prime Minister’s office and was the strategist behind Prime Minister Harper’s successful 2006 election, the result of which saw the Conservatives replacing the Liberals in government. Muttart crafted the strategy behind finding accessible voters and “activating” them for the Conservatives with specific policy planks.

Muttart was on the Roy Green show yesterday where he continued the Conservative narrative against the CBC’s affiliation with pollster Frank Graves. Graves came under fire when a column from the Globe’s Lawrence Martin quoted Graves recalling his strategic advice that he gave the Liberals. His advice, to start a “culture war”, wedging against Albertans and Conservatives, depicting them as xenophobic racist homophobes who would vote for Sarah Palin. - Stephen Taylor

   
I have said every party plays wedge politics for a very long time. Many of us disagree with the current advice and the decision of our public broadcaster to fund a pollster that has made these comments again.
 
 h/t Liberals Started This “Culture War” A Long Time Ago
Previous related  posts on Cultural Wars recommended reading.
Cultural Class War Continues: Policy Debate?
Ignatieff's Hidden Agenda
Digging his own Grave(s)
The Liberals Locked Into the Graves Strategy
Let them eat broccoli!