The French Can't Get A Break!

Michael Coren has a great current affairs program and was in good spirits as he repeatedly reminded his viewers the French are out and the English are in!

France has been eliminated in World Cup action in the first round. The National Press and some have been highly critical of the team. Football (Soccer) in Europe is our Hockey in Canada or Football in the United States.

In Toronto the advance team, press, from France get another unpleasant welcome after their seven hour flight. Crossing a picket line, entering and exiting the hotel property will be another setback. G8-G20 Activists want to disrupt the French press and trade delegates. Bring musical instruments, noise-makers, and all your friends!

Hundreds of workers, activists will join the eighty Hotel workers who have walked off work in advance of the G20 meetings in Toronto. The activists are expected to augment the line between 7 am to 7 pm.

Novotel has seven properties in Canada. It is owned and operated by a French company called Accor.
A European leader in hotels and tourism and the global leader in Services to corporate clients and public institutions, Accor operates in nearly 100 countries with more than 150,000 employees.

Novotel worldwide:

• 395 hotels and resorts in 60 countries, with 71,857 rooms (at 31/12/2009)
• Guest profile: 61% business / 39% leisure
• 1.9 million children welcomed in 2009
• 30,000 employees

An apology is in order to our French guests arriving to the Novotel property to cover the G20. This may be their first visit to Toronto, Canada. The good news is they will be able to visit our Canadian Pavillion for free drinks and getaway from the labor dispute.

The 3,700-square-metre Experience Canada pavilion includes the lake display to feature Ontario's northern wilderness and an urban section to promote Ontario businesses and innovations. A reception area offers refreshments, including free beer and wine, from all parts of Ontario.

I hope the beer and wine is from the Niagara Region and  Ontario micro-breweries

"The Experience Canada space will host over 3,000 media and other guests, and will serve to highlight Canada's pristine natural beauty, as well as promote leading Canadian businesses and industries," according to a statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office.

The people in this picture are identified as Harsha Wahlia and Syed Hussan. They’re “environmental activists.”

 All the whining and complaining from the opposition benches over the hospitality costs may have resulted in a snub. Ignatieff had not been invited to the G8 and G20 meetings because the Liberal leader said he was “embarrassed” by the summits, whereas the Conservatives were proud to be hosting the world. Too bad and too sad, the unhappy lot are free to join the other idiots, protesters marching on the streets or hosting their own meetings against Canada hosting of this multilateral meeting of world leaders.

The majority of Canadians are proud of this country, we support multi-lateral meetings and don't support the marginal special interest groups demands for more entitlements at our expense.

Ignatieff Clueless in Canada: Harris Decima Poll May 17, 2010

The Harris Decima Poll released on May 17, 2010 demostrates again the lack of attention or traction in the soap opera on the Hill. Here

To recap Harris Decima placed fifth in predicting popular support in the October 2008 elections. With the margin of error of 3.1% for the latest poll very little change from the 2008 results.

Liberals are stalled at 28%. The Green Party is polling 4.2% above their 2008 results at 11%!

The CPC were underpolled in 2008 by Harris Decima at 34% by 2.7%.  If you factor the current prediction of 32% with the 3.1% m.o.e. (2008 -2.7%) you can extrapolate 37-38% again.

You can do the same with the Bloc and NDP. So much fun. Campaigns and finances matter.

The Liberal leader is not being advised, reading the papers or meeting regular people. How else do you explain his statements and disconnect from reality?

• Fundraiser in Toronto
• Fundraiser in Montreal
• Fundraisers in ridings they hold.

Are Liberals only interested in trying to save the 77 seats they hold?

• Maternal Health Initiative attacked for Abortion Debate: His own party rejected.
• Long Gun Registry turned into bashing rural voters.
• Refusal to allow Auditor General review of expenses of Parliament.
• Political Pay Subsidy $ 300 Billion, Bloc 87%, Lib 63%
• Silent on the attacks against "social conservatives", free speech, freedom of assembly for Christians.
• Silent on the Global Bank Tax, Chicago Carbon Exchange Market . European Fraud
• Green Myth of Jobs, Money in Spain, Germany and Portugal.
• Eroding support in Quebec.

Each political party has their 2008 platform up on their website available for comparison. The Liberals are the only party to run and hide from those promises they championed. They have failed to champion their vision in this minority parliament.

• Refuse to introduce National Daycare for debate in parliament.
• Refuse to introduce Isotope Strategy for debate in parliament.
• Refuse to introduce Kelowna Accord for debate in parliament.
• Refuse to introduce their Investments into Higher Education Plans for debate in parliament.

Ignatieff has been appointed since December 2008 and has waffled on every single pledge. The Liberals won't come clean and explain their position beyond a recent last minute announcement of freezing corporate tax rate. The Liberals are silent in protecting our National interests in our Canadia Banks. Martin says he agrees with Harper that such a tax should not be imposed indiscriminately by the G20.

If you look at the NDP platform from 2008 you can probably guess where the Liberals will be getting their talking points in the next campaign.

Pollsters April 2010 Round Up

Here is a summary of the Polls April 2010

• Angus Reid Public Opinion here
• Leger here.
• Ekos Research here.
• Ispos Reid here.
• Harris-Decima Research here.

Democratic Space has an interesting site that includes seat projections here.
A partisan Liberal blogger that I visit is here and include a May projection update.
Note: The best way to measure a trend is to examine each pollster on an individual basis, their design and look for potential for flaws of bias. The table I provided should NOT be used to draw any conclusions. If you examine the second line graph with Harris-Decima a trend line can be applied.
Again I don't recommend in over analyzing a Poll in a bubble. Look at the financial health of each party as it is estimated to cost nearly $ 20 million to run a national campaign, the leader is he visiting new ridings or old ridings trying to shore up or save the furniture. Campaigns matter.
 Nik Nanos here.

Harris-Decima here

Harris Decima Poll: Orange Power

As a Conservative blogger I should include any potential for bias or conflict to be included when citing a Poll from Harris Decima. Allan Gregg, Chairman for Harris Decima has been actively involved in politics. Here is a link. The Poll without news editing is here. Allan Gregg on left, is a regular on CBC At Issue Panel.

The media will suggest this is responsible for the polling without getting into

Highlights: First is related, second was interesting.

• Gregg has long been involved in Canadian politics, but decided to travel south of the border to work with master Republican Party pollster Richard Wirthlin and learned much from him. He then returned to Canada in the late 1970s. He first came to national attention as the national campaign secretary of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada successful effort in the 1979 federal election.
• Gregg was an unusual-looking figure in Canadian politics, and especially in the Tory party. He adopted a unique style including gold earrings, bright red shoes, long hair, and a great deal of leather clothing. He founded a record label, The Song Corp., and was co-manager of the Tragically Hip. He also served a five year stint as president of the Toronto International Film Festival

Source: Canada News Desk HD 2009

This line graph demostrates the CPC were within or below 30% for six months in 2009 with M.O.E.

Were the Liberals above 30% for only three months in 2009 outside M.O.E according to Harris Decima?

In 2009, four by elections the CPC won 2 seats, a long held Bloc seat, former Bill Casey seat. The NDP held their B.C. seat and Bloc held their other seat. The Liberals were NOT a factor in all four contests.

In 2010 we have had six Polls conducted. In 2009 Harris Decima conducted polls on a monthly basis 12x. In 2008 they conducted over 40.

Has Harris Decima has been polling the CPC below 30% if you include the M.O.E. in 2010? Yes, if margin of error is 2%

How did Harris Decima fair in predicting the results in October 14, 2008?

Harris Decima finished 5th, ahead of Strategic Counsel 7th (Peter Donolo), behind Ekos Research (Frank Graves) 2nd.

Angus Reid came in first place in polling election popular support.

Harris Decima last poll before the election under polled the CPC by 3.7% over polled the Green by 4%.

As I have said on many occassions, a single poll means very little. Get out the vote, organization, campaigns make a difference.

Previous posts with notes on Harris Decima Polls.

Harris Decima Polling: April 5, 2010

Michael Ignatieff in Quebec : Support Vanishes

Coalition Part II: Path To Power

The Liberal Party of Canada: Disconnect From Canada


According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “This is the first time since the 2008 election that both the Conservatives and the Liberals - at the same time - are receiving less than 30 percent of the popular vote. Conversely, the NDP has not reached the 20 percent level since the fall of 2008 -- they are at an all-time high in BC; are virtually tied with the Liberals and Conservatives among female voters; and in fact lead the Conservatives among urban and suburban women. Whether the NDP is exploiting the fact that they are not the other guy or are actually generating some voter excitement, it is clear that they are benefiting from the misfortunes of the major parties"-Harris Decima

Let's hope the NDP  Jack does NOT break the tradition of Free Votes and his party scraps the LGR.

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• What Michael Ignatieff must do this summer (theglobeandmail.com)
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• Ignatieff least popular federal leader, poll finds (thestar.com)

Harris Decima Polling: April 5, 2010

Harris Decima Poll October 2008 April 5, 2010. The Bloc and voters in Quebec.

Source: Pundits Guide

Which political party has had the biggest decline in popular support since 2004 in General Elections? The Dion led Liberals recovered in Quebec from Martin-Liberals in 2006. The biggest threat and steady gains in popular support are the NDP in Quebec. Will NDP continued popular support translate for more vote splits for the Liberals and Conservatives? An examination on close races in Quebec is best viewed at Pundits Guide.

Additional reading:

Bloc Benefits From Liberal Political Subsidy: Nearly $ 300 million in welfare

Olympics & Nationalism vs. Political Games

A Democratic Deficit: How much is your ballot worth?

Michael Ignatieff in Quebec : Support Vanishes

Harris Decima reports on March 9, 2010 the Conservatives edge ahead....

I have taken a look at this latest report that captures the support levels from October 2008 through March 9, 2010.

This period is interesting as a General Election, leadership replacement, two contests in by elections is highlighted.

 Many of us suggest the Liberal Party has lost their moral compass , been reduced to a party of publicity stunts.

You can decide.

Conclusion from the Graph and Support Levels in Quebec:

Michael Ignatieff has been unable to sustain the lift in Quebec from the signed coalition agreement entered into by  Dion. In December 2008, Dion was encouraged to resign his leadership before the scheduled leadership convention in 2009. The Liberal Party executives were able to appoint Ignatieff in short order in spite of protests from Bob Rae.

In November 2009 the Bloc lost one of the two seats in an election contest to the CPC who were polling behind the Bloc, Liberals.

Source: Pundits' Guide

Source: Pundits' Guide

Source: Pundits' Guide

 
GOTV (Get out the vote) was successful for the NDP, CPC

Source M. Bernard Généreux

The NDP, CPC are below the General Election October 2008 levels.

The House of Commons voted 214-84 on Tuesday to reject a Bloc Quebecois amendment to the federal budget. That amendment would have forced the government to stop tax benefits to the oil industry and use the money to compensate Quebec for the Harmonized Sales Tax and improve EI benefits, among other things. Only the Bloc and NDP supported the proposed change. - Canadian Press

Does the Liberal Party expect their support numbers to be sustainable with another 150 meeting in Quebec? Is this just another publicity stunt to garner attention they are busy at work?