Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Harris Decima Poll: Orange Power

As a Conservative blogger I should include any potential for bias or conflict to be included when citing a Poll from Harris Decima. Allan Gregg, Chairman for Harris Decima has been actively involved in politics. Here is a link. The Poll without news editing is here. Allan Gregg on left, is a regular on CBC At Issue Panel.

The media will suggest this is responsible for the polling without getting into

Highlights: First is related, second was interesting.
  • Gregg has long been involved in Canadian politics, but decided to travel south of the border to work with master Republican Party pollster Richard Wirthlin and learned much from him. He then returned to Canada in the late 1970s. He first came to national attention as the national campaign secretary of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada successful effort in the 1979 federal election.
  • Gregg was an unusual-looking figure in Canadian politics, and especially in the Tory party. He adopted a unique style including gold earrings, bright red shoes, long hair, and a great deal of leather clothing. He founded a record label, The Song Corp., and was co-manager of the Tragically Hip. He also served a five year stint as president of the Toronto International Film Festival

Source: Canada News Desk HD 2009

This line graph demostrates the CPC were within or below 30% for six months in 2009 with M.O.E.

Were the Liberals above 30% for only three months in 2009 outside M.O.E according to Harris Decima?

In 2009, four by elections the CPC won 2 seats, a long held Bloc seat, former Bill Casey seat. The NDP held their B.C. seat and Bloc held their other seat. The Liberals were NOT a factor in all four contests.

In 2010 we have had six Polls conducted. In 2009 Harris Decima conducted polls on a monthly basis 12x. In 2008 they conducted over 40.

Has Harris Decima has been polling the CPC below 30% if you include the M.O.E. in 2010? Yes, if margin of error is 2%

How did Harris Decima fair in predicting the results in October 14, 2008?

Harris Decima finished 5th, ahead of Strategic Counsel 7th (Peter Donolo), behind Ekos Research (Frank Graves) 2nd.

Angus Reid came in first place in polling election popular support.

Harris Decima last poll before the election under polled the CPC by 3.7% over polled the Green by 4%.

As I have said on many occassions, a single poll means very little. Get out the vote, organization, campaigns make a difference.

Previous posts with notes on Harris Decima Polls.

Harris Decima Polling: April 5, 2010

Michael Ignatieff in Quebec : Support Vanishes

Coalition Part II: Path To Power

The Liberal Party of Canada: Disconnect From Canada

According to Harris/Decima Chairman Allan Gregg “This is the first time since the 2008 election that both the Conservatives and the Liberals - at the same time - are receiving less than 30 percent of the popular vote. Conversely, the NDP has not reached the 20 percent level since the fall of 2008 -- they are at an all-time high in BC; are virtually tied with the Liberals and Conservatives among female voters; and in fact lead the Conservatives among urban and suburban women. Whether the NDP is exploiting the fact that they are not the other guy or are actually generating some voter excitement, it is clear that they are benefiting from the misfortunes of the major parties"-Harris Decima

Let's hope the NDP  Jack does NOT break the tradition of Free Votes and his party scraps the LGR.
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The_Iceman said...

I don't like Allan Gregg.

CanadianSense said...

rofl, okay I will bite, why don't you like him?