Wednesday, April 07, 2010

Harris Decima Polling: April 5, 2010

Harris Decima Poll October 2008 April 5, 2010. The Bloc and voters in Quebec.

Which political party has had the biggest decline in popular support since 2004 in General Elections? The Dion led Liberals recovered in Quebec from Martin-Liberals in 2006. The biggest threat and steady gains in popular support are the NDP in Quebec. Will NDP continued popular support translate for more vote splits for the Liberals and Conservatives? An examination on close races in Quebec is best viewed at Pundits Guide.

Additional reading:

Bloc Benefits From Liberal Political Subsidy: Nearly $ 300 million in welfare

Olympics & Nationalism vs. Political Games

A Democratic Deficit: How much is your ballot worth?


The_Iceman said...

There would appear to be some redundancy in your graphic selection, but I like the big picture view. I remember Chantal Hebert predicting just before the election that the Tories would lose all their Quebec seats. That didn't happen.

CanadianSense said...

Yes, I am trying to extend our thoughts before 2008. I used the Quebec 2008-April 2010 to examine if the Bloc have peaked and like the Liberals are in a decline.

The Bloc have been declining in the last three years in popular support. Adscam damage may have been limited to Quebec in 2006 and it did NOT boost the Bloc. It went to other Federal parties. GOTV for the Bloc may have peaked and they may have a be losing some support to the other alternatives Liberals, NDP.

What region did the Liberals decline the most in popular support. If the battle is Ontario, can the CPC expand their 5% popular support in 2010.

We don't have access to private polling, from what I can see from 2008 the Liberals had a 20+ gap in GTA. In 2010 it may be very small and several seats may turn blue.

Volpe, Ruby, Szabo are going to be vulnerable or gone.

If we campaign on removing the subsidy each party will have to defend their previous position or flip flop during the campaign.

Each party will have to defend their coalition option or flip flop after the ballots are cast.

If the CPC keep pushing the steady as we go with EAP,the financial numbers keep recovering, the opposition will have a very difficult time in explaining why they deserve more seats.

The hidden agenda thing being introduced again will backfire because the other parties are not introducing their own ideas.