Poll, and it is mistake to make predictions based on a single Poll or a series of Polls in a bubble.
Many Pundits did not predict the worst showing in popular support for the Liberals in 150 years on October 14, 2008. In November 2009 the CPC managed to gain two seats including one from a long held Bloc riding of sixteen years.
DemocraticSpace is an interesting site that has some projections about the new 338 parliament. For a detail breakdown of past election anothe site for the political junkie is Pundits' Guide.
Not a leader Part II, is starting to sink in for some in media as identified by the Polls.
Impressions of Ignatieff continues to decline since he assumed the leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada. Michael Ignatieff’s current overall Leadership score (39.0 points) represents another 15.8 point drop in the past quarter of leadership tracking placing him behind both Stephen Harper (94.6 points) and New Democrat leader Jack Layton (41.2 points). -Nik Nanos
In case you're having trouble deciphering what that means, here it is: Nothing has changed in the 4+ years since the Tories were elected. Smackdown of the year - Kelly McParland