Thursday, June 17, 2010

Commentary:EKOS Research: Green Machine




Has anyone seen or heard from the Green Party in months? It appears the less we hear and see of them the higher support they find according to Ekos Research. The Green Juggernaut continues to plow through their opposition! The "others" are holding steady with nearly four percent!



Ekos is having an interesting excercise in defending how they uniquely find support levels for the Green Party in double digits. Ekos Research Poll for June 2-10, 2010 is here.

Ekos has been polling support for the Green Party above ten per cent since June 2009.

Ekos has also included another category called "other" since February 2010.

Ekos: Our survey also finds that 14.5% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Highlights Ekos Research:
  • BC: Liberals 19.1% remain in 4th place just 1.1% behind the Green Party at 20.2%. (M.O.E is 6.8)
  • Vancouver: Democrats big spike at expense of all (HST fallout?)
  • AB: The Green Party is 3.9% ahead of the NDP (M.O.E. 7.9)
  • QC: Battle for 2nd place Liberals are 1.7% ahead of Conservatives (M.O.E is 4.9)
  • Battle of Sexes: Conservatives lead both
  • Age: Every group including the Justin Bieber subset shows a Conservative advantage!
  • Education: University or Higher has returned to Lib with a 5.1% gap (M.O.E 4.1)
  • Toronto: Liberals have suddenly opened a 16.6% gap vs 0.6% gap previous Ekos Poll here.

Anyone curious how you keep support for the Liberals above 25%, do you boost Metropolitan numbers?


In Ontario Ekos previous poll finds the Liberal had a 4.0 point lead with MOE of 4.2, this week 0.2 increase with MOE 3.9. How does Ekos classify this significant swing of 0.2% in Ontario?

 "a small but very important lead."
The field dates for this survey are June 9 – June 15, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 2,013 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,725 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

June 10 2010 vs June 17, 2010 Ekos Metropolitan Snapshots:

The field dates for this survey are June 2 – June 8, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 1,789 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 1,541 decided voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Campaigns matter and the actions of the opposition to avoid a test of parliamentary supremacy that might trigger an election is evidence of the trouble with left of centre parties. The budget has passed with the pattern of 30 Liberal MPs missing in action. The opposition was well unwilling to oppose the Bill making Pardons more difficult. The opposition is not interested in going to the voters for fear of punishment.

Will the Green Party of Canada be able to negotiate their participation in the debates after failing to win a single seat in 2008?


2 comments:

redensign said...

EKOS always has the Greens higher then they actually are. One poll EKOS did had the Greens leading Quebec and the Bloc at 20%. The reason is that a) Frank Graves is trying to push Green support up b) that Frank Graves prompts the parties to those he's polling.

CanadianSense said...

It is funny reading the impressive Green numbers without any analysis.

I believe they may have changed from prompting recently.

The "other" category has become 3% and undecided/DK is usually around 14%.

The "other" category begin with the MSM spin around prorogue.

Incredible red flags when you compare it to Angus or Nanos.