Conservative Majority: End of Political Games?

I am going to provide a pre-writ projection with analysis. Campaigns matters and anything is possible! (DISCLAIMER).  I suggest the CPC will have 76 seats West+North a gain of three seats . In Ontario they will gain nine seats. Quebec and Atlantic will also see a pickup three seats. The Laurier Institute for the Studies of Public Opinion and Policy has their own forecast. As of March 14, 2011 they have been pegged at 152 seats.

I will post West + North as a Region of interest. Ontario separately. Quebec with Atlantic Canada. I have linked to Pundits Guide, I  recommend you visit this site for information on the upcoming election.

BC

• Troy J. Souza in Esquimlat-Juan DeFuca from retiring Keith Martin -Lib.
• Wai Young in Vancouver South to retire Ujjal Donsaj-Lib.
• Ronald Leung in Burnaby Douglas from retiring Bill Saskay-NDP. (Where is the website?)

AB

• Ryan Hastman in Edmonton Strathcona to retire Linda Duncan-NDP.

Western Arctic

• @!@#$@# in Western Arctic to retire Denis Bevington-NDP. (Where is the candidate?)

Mass advertising works. Financial fundraising metrics are being ignored as many other structural problems by our MSM. I am confident the provincial Liberals track record in Ontario will hurt the Federal Liberals. The pushback against the Liberals in the United States was clear in the November mid-terms. Canadians will have an opportunity to send a message the Ontario provincial Liberals as well. Change course or else.

This is the fourth election in seven years and the public may decide a majority would provide some stability for the next four years. It makes little sense for the taxpayer to pay for changing the Liberal leaders every two years.

Thank you in advance if you catch a typo or an numerical mistake. I will correct it at my earliest convenience.

Related articles

• Liberals want Canadians to spend $ 300 million to dump their leader? (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Too western. Not western enough. The MSM can't decide which. (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)
• Book the Plane already: Ontario turns Blue! (canadiansense.blogspot.com)
• Queen's Park pans federal budget (thestar.com)
• With a dozen MPs vulnerable, NDP faces defensive campaign (theglobeandmail.com)
• Liberal NDP Non-Compete (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)
• Linda Duncan, call your office. (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)

Nanos Poll: Conservative Lead Doubles in Ontario: 12%

Is the "W" for Ignatieff winning?

It is funny reading how a few media pundits provide spin about the drop in the leadership numbers of our PM  from last month. A drop would be significant if the gap was close, it's not. The gap is 43 points between our PM and Ignatieff. Ignatieff's score is only 39. Jack Layton has been in second place since Sept 2009 and has improved his LSI in comparison to Ignatieff. Dion also fared better in the two years he led the party.

Canadians believe political honesty should trump economic recovery as the main issue in the next election but — in a major blow to the Liberals — voters rank the Tories as the best party to deliver a government they can trust. -National Post

Nik Nanos Poll here

If Ontario is the key battleground for a Conservative breakthrough into majority territory why are the pundits they failing to report a double digit increase in Ontario from last month? The Conservative party of Canada has an eleven point lead against the Liberals nationally.

In the general elections results in October 2008 the Conservatives were able to secure a five point lead  in Ontario for the first time.

Which Liberal leader will be out of a job first?

The Liberals were behind 6.2% in the poll last month. The latest Nanos poll has the Liberals 12.3% behind the Conservatives in Ontario. Did any pundits talk about the drop for Ignatieff in Ontario or the doubling by the Conservatives? Michael Ignatieff, truly, is the George Costanza of Canadian Politics (keyboard beverage warning a funny photo-shop image of Iggy)

The news is just as bad for the provincial Liberals that are expected to lose in the fall. In another blow to the McGuinty regime, the pair were in a statistical dead heat when respondents were asked who they trusted most to manage the health-care and education files, traditionally safe Liberal ground. The Progressive Conservatives have a nine point lead.

The voters in Ontario are returning back to the Tory roots and the Liberals are going to be in a shock when the ballots are counted. The Federal Liberals were able to win one hundred seats in Ontario in 2000. They have been bleeding seats in every election to the Conservatives and NDP. They will be lucky if they can hold onto 30 seats in my opinion. I predict they will lose in the double digits in Ontario.

Book the Plane already: Ontario turns Blue!

Campaigns matter but only Ekos Research analysis decided the Bev Oda story might have legs on the CBC. Every other pollster has been clear the Liberals are tanking leading up to the budget vote. Ontario has crushed the Liberals dreams in Toronto by sending Rob Ford and  the GTA appears to be prepared to spank Dalton and Ignatieff into the dustbin of history. The track record of mismanagement and reckless social policy engineering is coming home to roost.

Regional Charts here

A Wilfrid Laurier study suggests Stephen Harper's Conservative government is within reach of a majority if an election were held now. An analysis by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy shows the Conservatives would win 152 seats if the election were held today. That’s just three short of a majority.

Their last poll had the Conservatives with a six point lead and a statistical tie in Ontario. Does the Toronto Star refer to a poll in November 2010 to dampen the momentum of the massive swing in Ontario of 13 points in five weeks? A little bait and switch? The mass media buy from the widely funded Conservatives is working.

Angus was the most accurate in the general election October 14, 2008. Everyone under polled the CPC.

The biggest change has come in Ontario, where the 13-point Tory lead observed in December has become a statistical tie (Conservatives 38%, Liberals 36%) -January 12, 2011 Angus Reid 

The Conservatives have more donors than all of the opposition parties combined. The opposition parties have failed to provide Canadians with a reason to donate and close the gap. The message of a stable government led by our PM Stephen Harper vs Coalition has resonated. Sorry Jack those cabinet seats are fading fast. Ignatieff will have to decide if co-opting the NDP policies are responsible for his dismal standings. Their is always the option of another tour and a swing to the right pretending your are a centrist.

The Conservatives are at 39 per cent, the Liberals are at 26 per cent, the NDP is at 18 per cent and the Green Party is at 6 per cent, according to the latest polling by Angus Reid Public Opinion.

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are knocking on the door of an elusive majority, helped in part by the growing support of Ontario voters, an exclusive Star poll of more than 6,000 Canadians reveals.
For the Conservatives it’s all good news in Ontario — a key battleground in the next election — where they enjoy a 13-point lead over the Liberals. That’s up five points from November.
The Conservatives’ road to a majority runs right through Ontario. The party is fighting hard to build on past gains in the 905 region, break into the Liberal bastion of Toronto and win seats in the corridor stretching to Windsor.

In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois holds a significant lead with 39 per cent, compared with 20 per cent for the Conservatives, 21 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the NDP.
Mukerji cautioned not to put too much stock in claims the Conservatives are badly wounded in Quebec, suggesting they are likely to retain the 11 seats they hold there now.
In Newfoundland, the Conservatives have bounced back from the 2008 election, when they faced the ire of then-premier Danny Williams who actively campaigned against the Tories. The party now stands at 42 per cent in the polls, up 28 per cent from the 2008 vote. That compares with the Liberals, which are down 11 points to 36 per cent, and the NDP, which is down 13 points to 21 per cent. - Conservative Majority vs Fringe Party Coalition

The MSM is free to engage in pushing the Bev Oda decision to defund Kairos. They are free to gloat about the difficulty in evacuating Canadians from Libya. They are free to recite the talking points from the war rooms of opposition parties masquerading as news. It has stopped working. Canadians can't afford the tax and spend Liberal NDP promises of the "free lunch". The media pundits have lost control of the narrative in shaping public opinion. Your moral compass is bankrupt and taxpayers are not interested in your priorities. If you want it, go fund it yourself with your own money.

It is time for the usual suspects in the MSM to grow up and return to a balanced role in reporting the news. Leave your personal opinions at the door.

Shelf Life: Federal Liberals leader is two years?

Natural born leader?

It appears the loyal and supportive followers of the Federal Liberals have a limit on the shelf life of their Federal Liberal leaders. The numbers seem to hover around 25% popular support nationally or two years as seat warmer in the opposition seats.

Fighting for ideological left voters of big nanny state

Andrew Coyne appears to be unhappy with the Liberals in his scathing rebuke of the Liberals latest rhetoric to gain support. I understand the Liberals’ need to differentiate themselves from the Tories. But, really: what kind of chumps do they take us for?  I am curious why more of the mainstream media have failed to highlight the factual errors of the Liberal rhetoric? Why are the mainstream media outlets a vehicle for recycled talking points that don't add up?

Where was unbiased mainstream media in covering the Green Energy Act imposed by the Dalton Liberals?

Seven Years, Green Energy Act driving business and jobs out of Ontario

Patience appears to be a problem for the Liberals. Flip flopping on major planks seems to affect both Federal and Provincial Liberals. I refer to it as the weather vane strategy. When it is going to affect their hold or return to power any policy is expendable.

The Federal Liberals are trying to invoke the Red Book of 1993 with fear mongering of a Conservative majority. They have resorted to lifting the policies of the NDP in order to steal their votes. Faking left and governing in middle is the Liberal unwritten promise.

The Liberals and NDP are both fighting for bigger government and more control of our daily lives. They both feel Ottawa knows best. The statists don't respect the division of powers between the Federal and Provincial governments. The one size fits all did not work for the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe or Cuba but the liberal left in love with socialism and big government refuse to learn from history.

 

Scott Brison: We can do it better!

Mr. Brison trying to maintain the cuts are bad, even though almost no voters have noticed them, and in the face of Tory MPs’ ability remind Canadians that the Liberals were just as fervently in favour of chopping corporate rates when they were in power. As if that wasn’t hard enough, he tried the all-but-impossible on Friday, arguing that the economy is in worse shape than it appears, while insisting the Liberals should get credit for the fact it’s in better shape than most. -National Post

Did the Liberal collective consume a giant Slurpee?

Every wonder if Scott got the short straw and was selected critic for the economy? The Government has had too much fun with being able to repeat his earlier statements about taxation and wasteful spending of the Liberals in Question period in 2010. It is a shame the Liberals are not expected to offer any adult conversation in the near future. 

Finance Minister Dwight Duncan said Friday the province has now seen two months of job growth.

"It closes out 2010 as a good year," Duncan said. "We've now recovered, I think, 96% of the jobs lost in the downturn."

Overall, Ontario was up 23,000 jobs in December, Stats Canada's Labour Force Survey shows.

"Hopefully, this is a harbinger of more to come," Duncan said.

According to the Ontario Ministry of Finance, the final month of the year saw 52,900 net new jobs in the private sector across the country, and about 6,400 net new jobs in the public sector, plus a sharp decline in the self-employed.

The minister said his government's tax package has provided a job-creating boost, although the U.S. economy does continue to pose a concern for Ontario's future.-Ontario regains almost all lost jobs

When you have the Liberal Minister of Finance for Ontario bragging about the economy and recovery how safe are those "federal" Liberal seats from the Conservatives?  The Ontario Liberals are following the example of the Federal Government in reducing their corporate taxes in specific cases to boost growth.

Federal Liberals are convinced they can do it better: They just won't share why or how. Trust us we know how to balance and cut. (No thanks)

“I would caution the government from taking advice from a party that oversaw about a dozen Canadian airline bankruptcies during its tenure in office from 1993 to 2006,” Mr. Dee told The Globe. “Rather than campaigning for votes in Dubai or Abu Dhabi, Mr. Rae should be speaking up for the hundreds of thousands of Canadians whose livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on a strong and vibrant Air Canada and Canadian airline industry.” - Air Canada’s chief operating officer Duncan Dee

Scare Tactics: Liberals running on empty

Will the Liberals repeat the same mistake in Vaughan in 2010 with Federal Conservative candidate Julian Fantino they did in 2006, 2008 and 2009?

The accomplishments of Harris with the electorate went far beyond typical Conservative voters. Until 1995, an “Italian-Canadian Conservative MPP” was a political oxymoron. With Harris, things changed and he made inroads into the GTA’s ethnocultural communities, electing six members of Italian origin, including the late Al Palladini in Vaughan.

The Liberals’ use of scare tactics now indicates they are both scared themselves and running on empty — just like the current federal Liberals, who are trying to get back into government by scaring Canadians about their Conservative opponent. It worked for Jean Chrétien only because the Conservatives were divided. Once they united, the Liberal secret weapon became more of a paintball gun. It didn’t work for Stéphane Dion, it’s not working for Michael Ignatieff and it’s not going to work for McGuinty. -Persichilli: Scare tactics won’t work for Ontario Liberals

Reservations and criticism has been confirmed by several people with the direction of the Liberal party.

"the federal Liberal party, which he says was bereft of ideas and direction by the time Stephen Harper's Conservatives won the 2006 election." - Ken Dryden

Related articles

• Liberal Stronghold: Conservative Star Candidate
• Liberal MP abandons Ignatieff for Mayoralty Race
• Hébert: Vaughan by-election a likely momentum-killer for Ignatieff (thestar.com)
• Tories poised to call 3 by-elections, including Grit stronghold Vaughan (theglobeandmail.com)
• Michael Ignatieff lies to highshool students. (thealbertaardvark.blogspot.com)
• Maybe Iggy was right (bluelikeyou.com)
• Ex-Ontario top cop Fantino to run for the federal Conservatives (canada.com)

Tax Fighters: Ignatieff vs McGuinty

Who do you believe is going to be a better tax fighter on the campaign trail?

Can you spot the Tax fighter?

It took months for Ignatieff to roll over and vote in Parliament in support of Liberal Premier Glen Campbell and Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty on the implementation of the HST in BC and Ontario.  The auditor general recommended the accounting for the implementation costs of a harmonized programs should be included in this budget. Ignatieff and his critics are very upset now that the government has adopted her recommendations?

Ignatieff has recently decided to challenge the wisdom of lowering business taxes anymore and his crack team of career politicians are ready to talk taxes and why corporations don't need any more tax breaks. Ignatieff tacking left, adopting the NDP redistribution of wealth policies has been tried before in 2008, it was called Green Shift. Some people feel it is ethical to take from productive members of society to pay for social programs.  Do you?

This could have been an opportunity by Ignatieff to pick up the mantle from the Chretien-Martin Liberal tax fighters - deficit slayers by spending less, this is not. Ignatieff wants to keep taxes at their present level. He did not offer to reduce the tax burden on families or employers.

 

Ignatieff feels paying for more new social programs is a higher priority than the planned corporate tax reductions of Economic Action Plan. Ignatieff may feel the Canadians will agree with his views on the economy and jobs. Liberals feel the level of taxation is on small, medium and large companies is just. 

“This bill is not fiscally responsible,” he said of a Bloc Québécois private-member’s bill that comes to a vote Wednesday evening. The Liberals and the NDP had supported the bill at second reading and in committee, but Mr. Ignatieff said it will be a free vote for his MPs. -Ignatieff Sept 30 2010  

Ignatieff threatened to topple the government with the aid of the NDP-Bloc in May 03,2009 over the enrichment of employment insurance. 

Does Ignatieff realize if the world was a tuxedo, he would be the brown pair of shoes?

A press release on May 08, 2009 five days after the  Ignatieff  decided a threat was necessary to make parliament work showed an increase of 36,000 jobs. The rate remain unchanged at 8.0% .The increase in employment in April was all in full-time work. Overall employment gains for the month were spread between adult men aged 25 and over, and older women aged 55 and over. Since October, employment has declined among men aged 25 to 54 and youths 15 to 24, whereas it has increased among older workers. In April, the average hourly wage was 4.3% higher compared with the same month a year earlier. Unemployment rose from February 7.2% to 7.7% matching 2003 levels for March 2009. In April 2009 the Unemployment was 8.1%. Statistics Canada has it at 8.0%

He said if the government does not budge on jobless benefits “then we’ll have to have an election.” But he also reiterated his vow to make Parliament work and urged the public not to read any election timing into the June date of the platform. “I’m not playing games,” he said. May 03, 2009

Labour Force Survey Unemployment rate for May 2009 is 8.1% from Statistics Canada reported in June 04, 2009, two weeks before the roll-over.

Ignatieff has previously said he wants a single national eligibility standard for EI during the ongoing recession — meaning people could qualify for benefits if they've worked 360 hours in the previous 52 weeks, regardless of where they live. Currently, the eligibility criteria vary by region across the country, from 420 hours worked in Gander, N.L. to 700 hours in Winnipeg.- June 17, 2009

A reporter asked if he was steamrolled for backing down from his election threats, his earlier Press Conference with four conditions and taking a Blue Ribbon Panel and he replied if he looked steamrolled on June 17, 2009.

Fifteen months have transpired since his being steamrolled. Our unemployment is reported at 8.0% . Bill C-308 is what Ignatieff demanded when unemployment reported at 7.7%. His four ultimatums declared in early May 2009 were reduced to a Blue Ribbon Panel in mid June when unemployment was reported at 8.1%.

 

Ignatieff initially voted with the NDP and Bloc to pass an improved Bill  that would have seen a 35% increase on employers and employees. The Federal government won praise from Unions and Association of small businesses for restricting  the increase to only five per cent. Experts wanted a 15% increase to get the EI fund balanced quickly. The Federal government decided the risk of job losses and risk to the business climate would require a delay in balancing the program in the short term.

This is why governments across Canada of all ideological stripes have done just the opposite of what Mr. Ignatieff is proposing. His Liberal predecessors, former Prime Ministers Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, understood the importance of reducing corporate taxes. That's why they dropped the federal rate to 21 per cent from 28 per cent. Many provincial governments have also cut corporate income tax rates in recent years, including NDP governments in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Redistribution of Wealth is Socialism: Ignatieff where does it work?

Ignatieff would be wise to look at what Ontario Liberal premier Dalton McGuinty has done. He increased corporate income taxes shortly after coming into power in, realized the destructive impacts of that move and did a u-turn last year, announcing a rate cut to 10 per cent from 14 per cent by 2013.

Ignatieff the tall poppy?

Anyone that seeks power to govern possesses a certain arrogance and anyone that attains power possesses the strategic skill. Therefore, in Canadian politics, arrogance and crass raw political strategy must be seen to be the character of one’s opponent. When government falls to trigger an election, Ignatieff and Harper will do their best to let the other poppy be boastful and stand too tall.- Stephen Taylor

September 2009: Budget Passed with NDP support.

If Michael Ignatieff Liberals were serious about lowering the taxes and helping families why have they failed to introduce a single bill in parliament for debate on behalf of the Liberal party that actually reduce taxes or helps business? Is he just playing games with supporting the NDP-Bloc policies that he initially introduced?

Related articles

• Dalton McGuinty - Your time is almost up! (I hope) (bluelikeyou.com)
• I Am Thankful For Ignatieff Truancy (pragmatictory.blogspot.com)

A tale of three Liberals

The public decide when your time is up. The public decide when your rhetoric is past its due date. The media wishes to quantify this "throw the bums out" as anger. That is too simplistic.

The public are much smarter than the pundits in smelling BS and they understand what is not working and who is accountable.

The media cheerleaders on the wrong side of the debate are finding out through poor ratings: we don't accept your fairytale. Report the news or fade away, the choice is yours.

United States -Obama

Obama’s approval rating fell to a new low of 43 percent since he took office, down from 47 percent last month, according to a Reuters-Ipsos national poll.

Ipsos pollsters say it appears that much of that drop comes from Democrats whose approval of Obama fell to 70 percent from 78 percent last month.

Among likely voters, 48 percent said they will choose Republican candidates in the midterm elections, while 44 percent say they will vote for a Democrat. That gap narrowed in the full survey sample, with 44 percent saying they would vote for the Republican candidate vs. 43 percent for the Democrat.

Sixty-three percent said the country is on the wrong track, which was the highest since Obama took office. Sixty-five percent said creating jobs is what Congress should focus on in 2011, and most said the best indicator of economic recovery is a drop in the unemployment rate.

The economy topped the list of the most important problem facing the United States, while respondents did not mention the Iraq war. -Winds of Change
Obama has time to save his job, he does not have the capacity to save the Democrats in the Senate, Congress. Does he have time to balance the books and get voters behind his economic policies?
Ontario - McGuinty

Three out of four Ontarians believe it’s “time for a change” at Queen’s Park because of the unpopular 13 per cent harmonized sales tax and lingering economic fears, a new poll suggests.

The Toronto Star-Angus Reid survey indicates Premier Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals, who mark their seventh anniversary in power on Saturday, face major challenges as they head toward the Oct. 6, 2011 election.

With 76 per cent of respondents saying they would like to see another party in power and 71 per cent warning the province “is on the wrong track,” the poll signals change may be on the horizon.

The global recession might officially be over, but the new HST and rising hydro bills have left 86 per cent of Ontarians claiming “it is harder now than it was two years ago to make ends meet.”

What won’t be debated, except perhaps in hushed tones over free drinks at the hospitality suites Friday night, is who will succeed Premier Dalton McGuinty as Liberal leader.“The folks around McGuinty will be trying to stamp this (talk) out as quickly as they can because they don’t want to undermine him or even question his standing at the head of the party,” confided one Liberal insider - Liberals quietly ponder McGuinty's replacement

Dalton is beginning to unwind and halt some of the decisions in order to limit the damage to his party and his leadership. Will it be enough time? Does he have the fiscal room to fix it and balance the books?

Best PM 2007- 2010 -Nik Nanos

 
Opposition Leader -Ignatieff

The Polls illustrated above/below for six months ( May-September 2010) a trend Conservative 5-8%  average lead normally. Every summer the "race" is reported as tightening up. The Liberals can't break and hold 30%. You need 37% to win a minority parliament. The majority of Canadians think the economy has improved and going in the right direction. Their frustration is directed at Provincial and local officials who have been increasing taxes. Property taxes, hydro, cost of transportation.

On leadership Prime Minister Stephen Harper is a force of nature. The Federal Government was given a pass on the massive Economic Stimulus as necessary.

May 2010- Oct 14 2010 All Polls CanadaNewsDesk

Ignatieff is not connecting with the average Canadian regardless of another road trip or plaid shirt wardrobe change.

The Liberals need money to buy advertising to convince Canadians they are not the party of props, tax and spend. They don't have it from the latest figures.

"This is Canada, not Australia," Ignatieff said. "That means Canada has principles, the Charter of Rights and Freedoms, our international obligations."-Ignatieff 

In 1969 Pierre Trudeau mused MPs were nobodies 100 feet from Parliament Hill. The  official opposition's refusal to represent their constituents has reduced the Trudeau musing by another 50 feet.

The PM Satisfaction score is up six per cent from September and twelve per cent from January  2010. The PM outpaces the Premier by seven per cent. Conservatives beat the Liberals by two per cent on support from the Francophone. The Conservative beat the Bloc by nine points around Quebec City. 

Why are the Federal Liberals SILENT on criticizing the high taxes, high hydro rates being charged by the municipal and provincial government? Did the compassionate Liberals miss the fact the same paper that ran his photo op reported the loss of twenty seven jobs and the closing of the production from the dairy on May 20, 2010?

Of the $7.2-billion three-month deficit, nearly half -$3 billion -was attributed to tax reductions, increased employment insurance benefits and infrastructure spending.- Recovery continues in spite of political stunts by opposition.

 

September 2008 Nik Nanos Poll on Leadership found both Ignatieff and Layton slid. The PM has moved up 4.1% to 83.3%. Ignatieff is in third place behind Jack Layton.

I am particularly appalled at the Liberal announcement that they would cancel this contract at the first opportunity. As a former Sea King squadron commander earlier in my career, I know only too well the consequences of such political games.
Lt.-Gen. (Ret.) Angus Watt is former chief of the air staff (2007-09)

Canadians don't see him as PM material. They don't trust Michael Ignatieff, his numbers reflect it in almost every poll. His efforts to date are not seen as a credible alternative. Voters are tuning out National politics because of the relentless negative attacks from the media and opposition. His party has not used this minority parliament to enact ANY legislation that would help the economy. He just abandoned his forty five day Employment Insurance Plan and left many of his MPs holding the bag. What is the message when half of the party vote for a 35% increase in employment insurance rates and you deem as no longer necessary?

Off all of the three Liberals, Ignatieff is in the most vulnerable position without the ability to control the timing of the election, party discipline or have access to a war chest to match the Conservatives. 

Obama and McGuinty both have campaign experience and a successful track record in fundraising.

What do you think?

 

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• Ontario Tories, NDP smell blood as Liberal support falls (thestar.com)
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Julian Fantino: Vaughan Star Candidate

The Liberals in Toronto are in a panic with support of Rob Ford and now prospect of fighting against Julian Fantino for the vacated seat by Maurizio Bevilacqua on behalf of the Liberals since 1988.(York North 1988-1997, York-Vaughan King Aurora 1997-2004, Vaughan 2004-Present)

Judy Sgro participates in procession on Good Friday, 2002 with Toronto Chief of Police Julian Fantino, RCMP Ben Soave and Tony Ianno, MP.

The Prime Minister will be in Vaughan, ON next Friday to introduce former OPP Commissioner Julian Fantino as his by-election candidate, the Italian-Canadian newspaper in Toronto, Corriere Canadese, is reporting today, while the Liberals have already approached and been turned down by a series of potential candidates.

According to the story penned by editor Angelo Persichilli in Italian (and translated here), Fantino has not been specifically promised any position in cabinet, but had a personal meeting with Prime Minister Harper in the Langevin Building in Ottawa this past September 27, and is expected by party insiders to be "part of the [government's] inner circle" on taking office.- Pundits Guide

Will Judy Sgro, Dalton McGuinty be joining the Prime Minister in welcoming Julian Fantino as the newest candidate for the federal seat in Vaughan turning Conservative blue?

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• Questions raised about Vaughan MP's mayoral intentions (thestar.com)
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Dalton's Green Energy Act vs The World

The United States and the European Union emerged on Thursday as latest countries to say they have key commercial interests at stake and want to join the consultations on a complaint by Japan to the World Trade Organization.

Looks like another bill for our Federal Government to pick up. Thanks Dad!
What could possibly go wrong? Here is the latest Liberal-vision's snuff film.

No I am not kidding! We have alleged most corrupt, is Ontario trying for most W.T.O. challenged province?

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We Get Giant Fans and More Dirty Coal: Thanks Dalton

The McGuinty Government has issued a shareholder directive giving Ontario Power Generation permission to increase the output of its dirty coal-fired power plants by 17%, in each year from 2011 to 2014 inclusive, relative to its actual level of coal-fired electricity generation in 2009- Wind Concerns Ontario

If you are unhappy about the double-digit increases in your hydro bills don't forget to call your local Liberal MP.

If your city or local government can stop the windfarm or energy plant in your backyard don't forget to call your local Liberal MP.

A majority can be a wonderful thing for a political party. Too bad Ontario voters did not realize how chasing the Green Jobs Myth was going to cost more than just dollars.

Where is the evidence, business case models in Spain, Norway, Portugal, California of successful Windfarms?

Liberal Party: Brand Awareness Damage Control?

Photo Credit: BCer in Toronto

Brand Awareness is very important. How is the Liberal brand performing in Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec?

Will the scandals, resignations, call for investigations reach the Federal Liberals?
If we have an election in the next few months will the Liberal brand survive?

• If reduced to Toronto (Ontario -10 seats), (English as mother tongue ridings) on Montreal Island
• Safe seats continue to see large margins shrink by 5%.
• MP's in safe seats uninvited the Liberal leader during campaign or complain.
• Voters that can be classified as rural, suburban, cities smaller than one million continue to not show up.
• Voters that can be classified as visible minorities continue to not show up or mark ballot for other party.
• Female vote stay home or shift to other parties.

An Angus Reid-La Presse poll shows that 60 per cent of respondents, including two thirds of francophones, believe former justice minister Marc Bellemare, who accused Jean Charest of turning a blind eye to what he called "influence peddling" in the appointment of judges by some Liberal fundraisers. A Léger Marketing-Journal de Montréal poll put it at 64 per cent.

Will the loss of trust of the current leadership in the provinces, increased taxes, user fees imposed by the provincial Liberal governments affect the federal campaign, brand awareness, and get out the vote for Federal Liberal Party of Canada?

Compare this with the Global relationship our Prime Minister, in Ontario between the Prime Minister, Premier Dalton McGuinty, Mayor of Toronto.

There are too many stories to link regarding the work by the Federal Government in working cooperatively on projects for Ontario.

Many of us believe the Liberals, NDP, Bloc in Ottawa are unable to focus on the big issues for many reasons. The gap in leadership, trust is too large for the opposition and have shifted to a negative, destructive strategy of personal and character assassination to protect their vulnerable seats.

This week in Parliament in Question Period from the opposition.

• Protect Canada Post from increased competition.
• Afghanistan Committee: Reduced to allegations against Military, Government on handling Prisoners, paperwork.
• Progress of two month (witchunt) campaign targeting ex-Jr. Minister H.G., her spouse. 

Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty Prioritizes Union Agreements vs Taxpayers

Source: Heritage Dinner Feb 25 2010

"You know there's an important part of our brand as a province and as a government. When we do business with each other and do business with the world, when we give you our word, our word is our word." - Ontario's Premier The National Post

I am sure we would have forgiven you if you did not award pay out $ 25 million for severance of public service employees who are not losing their jobs.

Some promises are worth breaking, some agreements need to be re-balanced. Dalton is this "sweetheart" deal too late to fix or not worth fighting?

Coalition Part II: Path to Power

Are the opposition MP's defending "IED" farmers?

A recent Angus Poll has confirmed several ideas from the Throne Speech and Budget have wide support and the opposition are unwilling to oppose the CPC agenda with ideas. Some have alluded this is an election budget.

The Toronto Star has been busy suggesting the Liberal Party of Canada as a result of prorogue held some adult conversations.Is the Report of seven pages, the proof of the adult conversation we can expect from the Liberal Party? Does adult supervision not extend to Question Period? Are the seven pages the mini-platform of the Liberal Party for the upcoming campaign?

Some left leaning pundits and Liberal MP's believe it was the long list of numerous scandals that sunk the Liberal Party. Some of us believe the shift was gradual in key voting groups including key demographics, the result of failed policy and inaction by the Liberals to adapt.

The fortunes of the Liberal Party greatly benefited from the misfortune of other political parties and Jean Chretien was able to exploit those weaknesses on several occasions for success at the ballot box.

In late 2009, yesterday a few pollsters and left leaning pundits suggest repeating publicity stunts and uttering scandals is the shortest road for the Liberals to return back to power. I hope to dispel that myth with some screen shots and links to the shift.

Some believe a coalition redux may take place to return the Liberals to power in a two stage election in 2010.

• Campaign against prorogue (limit PMO/GG powers to stop coup)
• No photo ops with Bloc this time
• Push Scandals instead of alternative policies in the minority parliament

The screen captures are from Pundits' Guide, I recommend if you are serious about Canadians Politics this is one of the best non partisan sites for information.

• Liberal Party won 51.5% =100 seats
• NDP 8.3% = 1 seat
• Canadian Alliance 23.6% = 2 seats
• PC 14.4% = ZERO seats
• Green 0.9% =Zero seats

• Liberal Party won 44.7% =75 seats
• NDP 18.1% = 7 seat
• CPC 31.5% = 24 seats
• PC 0.2% = ZERO seats
• Green 4.4% =Zero seats
  

• Liberal Party won 39.9% =54 seats
• NDP 19.4% = 12 seat
• CPC 35.1% = 40 seats
• PC 0.2% = ZERO seats
• Green 4.7% =Zero seats

• Liberal Party won 33.8% = 38 seats
• NDP 18.2% = 17 seat
• CPC 39.2% = 51 seats
• PC 0.1% = ZERO seats
• Green 8.0% =Zero seats

Ontario led by Dalton McGuinty's Liberals have been onside with the Federal CPC government for several years. Ontario was NOT a substantial shift as a result of a RCMP investigation into leaked information from the Liberals. or Ad scam. The shift in popular vote and seats that saw continuation took place around the Thanksgiving table. Not in front of the TV or the result from the friendly articles in the Toronto Star on behalf of the Liberal Party. 

Reality vs Perception (Liberal track record is real and CBC pundits can't salvage Liberal Party fortunes.)

h/t Ardvark

• The Auditor General Issued Numerous Scathing Reports (HR, Isotopes, Accountability)
• The Supreme Court Ruled 7-0 Against the Liberal Government over taxes
• Liberals shut down parliament over Somalia Inquiry, Ad scam, APEC

Liberals are lacking situational awareness in talking down the economy and blaming our government. Voters continue to punish the Liberals at the Ballot box regardless of consumer confidence.

Canadians remain three times more likely to see good times financially for themselves a year from now than bad. 31% of respondents anticipate they’ll be better off financially a year from now than they are now, while 9% say they’ll be worse off. This split has remained almost unchanged for 3 waves now, dating back to August 2009. Harris Decima Poll March 2010

Publicity Stunts: Coalition, PSAC, Anti War Groups on Hill

The Liberals led by Ignatieff failed to win a single seat in 2009 in four contests. The support from the 30's evaporated in the Fall of 2009 and has slowly recovered. The stunts and repeated games on the Hill by the special interest groups and opposition parties keep making the mistake that WE are paying attention or care.

I suspect some of the 77 Liberal MP's will not continue to remain on the sidelines, participate in the games in 2010 to disparage our troops, civil service to embarrass the government and gain power.

Many men and women entered politics to make things better and help their constituents, I don't believe many Liberals are satisfied with the current leadership and back office. Who will be the first to break from this destructive politics first?

 1) Denis Coderre, NFLD MP's who broke on budget, Pro-life Liberals, 905 riding Liberals, future leadership candidates.
Groundhog Day for the Liberal MP's AGAIN? Examine this story written in December 15, 2008.

Uncomfortable with Stephane Dion’s leadership, the executive committee of the Liberal Party had a decision to make. After the October 2008, election, Dion agreed to resign as the Liberal leader pending the selection of a new leader at its next national convention scheduled for May 2009. Continuing to remain the head of any coalition or the Party represented “bad optics”.- Canadian Politics