Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Summer is Over: Conservatives move to 8 Point Lead

Angus Reid Poll here . The Liberals, NDP and Bloc are matching their vote share from the last federal election, while the Tories are three points behind. The biggest gainers are the Greens, who now stand four points ahead of their 2008 nationwide total.

We see this pattern with the media and opposition fill the news with negative stories. We know summer ends when the "horse race" becomes replaced with a three, five or ten point lead by the Conservatives. Last summer Ignatieff may have suffered from the Napoleon complex with declaring "Time Is Up".

Tim Hortons - Edmonton City Centre
In 2010 Ignatieff spent his summer visiting the recently lost, winnable and Liberal held ridings. To qualify they had to be able generate small crowds for photo ops. Ignatieff was able to provide stimulus with multiple purchases of plaid shirts and Tim Horton's pit stops. Thanks Mike!

No Snacks For You!
Parliament is now back in session and the narratives is to attack the Conservatives on the removal of threat of fines on the Census, spending of the G20, the investment in the military purchase of F35's, upgrades to  expand our prisons and continuing with the tax cuts as outlined in the two year plan (EAP).  Kevin Page preliminary report did not give them the ammunition to attack, so they have decided to attack the spending on snacks by the RCMP on chips, glow sticks and bug spray. There is speculation the report from Sheila Fraser will also not provide a smoking gun regarding the spending of the Economic Action Plan.

The opposition are stuck with recycling old attack lines to fill question period. The opposition parties have not presented a credible plan on what they would do differently going forward including where to cut spending. The Liberals will engineer at least thirty MPs will skip a votes to defeat the Conservative agenda. (AGAIN)

The balance sheet and membership problems of the Liberal Party are not resolved, they suffered a dramatic loss in 2010 vs 2009. I don't believe they are capable of putting together a coherent national campaign with television. Ignatieff won't be in Parliament to provide an easy target for hypocrisy, he will continue to visit ridings to drum up support, find candidates and repair the heavy losses in financial donations.

Is their any wonder why Liberals find themselves at their lowest level of popular level of support since confederation a third time in two years?  

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