Thursday, May 06, 2010

Nik Nanos Research: Conservatives lead April 30 - May 3, 2010

The latest Nanos tracking shows that the federal Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals outside of the margin of error for the research. The research suggests that a politically tumultuous April, which featured the Guergis affair, Culture War allegations and focus on Afghan detainee transparency, has not had a negative effect on Conservative support. Nanos Research here.

Of note, pockets of polarization related to ballot preference may be emerging. Through the tumultuous April, the Conservatives widened their lead over the Liberals in the Prairies, while the Bloc Quebecois picked up support in Quebec.

I have been pointing to the strategy of voter suppression of specific voting blocks in the battleground of Ontario and Quebec for several months. The culture war is a component of achieving a means to an end.

The numbers in parenthesis denote the change from the last Nanos National Omnibus survey completed between March 6th and March 12th.

National Committed Voters Only (n=780)

Conservative 37.2% (+2.5)
Liberal 33.2% (-1.4)
NDP 16.2% (-1.6)
BQ 9.6% (+1.9)
Green 3.8% (-1.4)
Note: Undecided 22.2% (+2.6) of total voters surveyed.

 CTV Question Period


Election October 15 2008 Recap on CPAC

The lead took place around the thanksgiving table. The movement took place in Ontario.

On the economic front: I posted on March 15, 2008 Nik Nanos Budget Analysis Poll

Canadians did prefer that the government continue the stimulus spending. Likewise, the deficit was seen as acceptable. Prompted with a series of public policy choices to help balance the budget, freezing government wages was identified as the most popular comparative choice. The research suggests that the budget was perceived by Canadians as a “stay the course” plan for the future. With a deficit being acceptable and the appetite for the stimulus spending to continue, it’s unlikely this budget represents a political advantage or disadvantage for the federal Conservative government.-Nik Nanos

March 23, 2010  Nik Nanos Poll: Confirm Out of Touch Coalition Parties

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The Liberals, NDP, Bloc are unable to attack directly with facts or offer a credible alternative and have chosen to use similar catch phrases, allegations behind parliamentary privilege in their strategy of voter suppression.
  • culture of intimidation, deceit, a hidden agenda, racist, ideological, undemocratic, anti-women.

The dumping of Helena Guergis as a CPC candidate for Simcoe-Grey riding will add further speculation an election is imminent over the Russian roulette game of sinister redacting allegations by the opposition parties.

The opposition parties are going to have to explain why they ignored all the testimony of our military top brass, civil servants for allegations by sources linked as friendly to the Liberal Party.

Best of luck. Let's test the CPC vs the Coalition Parties narrative!

Don't forget to read DemocraticSPACE has a new projection.

Source here.


    The_Iceman said...

    So Nanos has the Greens at 3.8%? I thought according to EKOS that they were up over double digits?

    CanadianSense said...

    Nanos does not prompt or give party names is my understanding. Each pollster has a different design. The fairest way is to measure each pollster and their polls over a long time and than compare it via actual election results.

    Ekos was 2nd place behind Angus on the election 2008. Everyone underpolled the CPC support. Nanos recap on CPAC talks about the family, friends making up their minds on Sunday around the thanksgiving table to give the CPC the best party to govern. (It's the economy stupid!)

    As I have noted for months the importance of leadership. Nanos runs Leadership Index Score

    I did another mea culpa on tweet screen grab via the genius.

    I gave Rick Mercer "props" for your tweet. It was your reply. I did not understand your message, this morning I did a search and figured it out. I need to do a better job in labeling my screen shots, fortunately R.M. does not care, follow enough to correct this numb skull blogger.